FPL Captain Choices: Gameweek 3

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 3 – who will you choose? 

Gameweek 2 is over – I think most will join me in thanking the lord.

A frustrating week for most, to say the least, with Lukaku only bagging 6pts, – which on reflection considering the scores of the other captains, looks very good now – Kane firing another blank accompanied beautifully with another yellow card and the likes of Lacazette, Firmino, Agüero, Vardy and Salah all blanking.

With Burnley up next for Spurs, I expect Kane, despite his poor start, to be top of the GW3 captain poll with Lukaku coming second, but lets see what the Twitter FPL community is thinking…

Results of the Poll

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After being the runaway leader in the previous polls, Lukaku (33%) plays second fiddle to Kane (57%) this time, despite Lukaku comfortably beating Kane in each of the first two gameweeks.

The reason perhaps for this, is that Kane has been incredibly unlucky in the first 2 gameweeks, hitting the post twice and missing a a fair few easy chances – I say he’s been unlucky, but the fact is, it’s us owners that have been unlucky, Kane has actually been poor.

The chances he’s missed, are chances he should burying, make no mistake.

He’s had 14 shots over the first 2 gameweeks with 11 of those coming inside the box.

The interpretation of these stats by most, will be that of future positivity where FPL managers and pundits alike will be saying; ‘The goals will come’ – but is there more to it than that?

Lukaku v Kane: The goals will come… won’t they?

I look at the above stats and shake my head in disbelief.

With those stats, he [Kane] should be on 3/4 goals right now. A conversion rate of 0% given the amount of shots he’s had and the quality he possesses, is terrible.

This to me, suggests that his head isn’t right and that he’s low on confidence. A confident Kane puts these chances in no problem and I’m not seeing it, I see a frustrated player trying too hard to force the issue.

To add to that, Kane isn’t an aggressive player that gets regularly booked – which is backed up by the average of 4 bookings per season over the last 3 seasons – and yet, Kane is already half way there in just 2 games with 2 bookings from one awful tackle and one cynical pull back stopping a counter-attack – this suggests to me, that he’s frustrated and often enough, when you’re in a dry spell, the harder you try, the worse it ends up getting.

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I urge you to cast your minds back to Zlatan last season when he started well and then went completely off the boil for about 7-8 GWs, but was registering plenty of shots inside the box – the stats then, much like Kane right now, indicated the goals would come, week after week, but did they come? No.

So whilst on paper and statistically, captaining Kane this week makes sense, perhaps it might be better to go with the guy and the team high on confidence, scoring goals, where the striker’s conversion rate actually has to be calculated.

Remember that stats don’t always tell the full story. Just because he’s registering this many shots inside the box, doesn’t automatically predispose him to scoring the following week.

More often than not, the players will revert back to type, granted, but how long it takes them to do so is impossible to predict and the evidence doesn’t exactly convince me it’s coming anytime soon, despite the supposedly easy upcoming fixture.

Moreover, Kane blanked in two easy fixtures last year at home where one of them was actually Burnley.

It feels as though Kane has bought into this so-called ‘August Curse’, like a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it’s a feeling I have personally from watching the games closely and live (Kane being my captain in both games).

I’m not for a moment suggesting that anyone should go taking him out, just that perhaps captaining Lukaku this week might just be the wisest option, given that Kane appears to be struggling to take his chances.

It’s like the equivalent of betting on a team to win in their 3rd match, where they had 50 shots combined over their 2 previous games, but lost both and didn’t score – why would anyone do that? The stats clearly infer that over those 2 games, they can’t take their chances, so why would you think that the next match will be any different based on the information at hand?

At the end of the day, we can only go off what’s happened previously and when it comes to Kane, 14 goal attempts and 0 goals isn’t convincing in the slightest and it certainly isn’t captain material.

Besides, why not simply bet on the team that’s creating chances and taking them? That’s how I currently see Lukaku v Kane this week for the armband.

The differentials

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Sadio Mané has started the season well, bagging 2 goals in his first 2 games and looks good as a captain option this week at home to Arsenal.

Arsenal’s defence looks shaky at the moment, but it is worth noting that they have been without their main man Koscielny at the back for the first two games due to his suspension, but who is back this weekend for the game against Liverpool.

Even with Koscielny being back, I can see goals in this game and Mané is such a dangerous player.

I can easily see him scoring for the third successive gameweek and a few people have commented on the captain poll expressing their intentions to give him the armband this coming GW – and why not.

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Again, Agüero (6%) could prove a very powerful differential captain when City travel south to the home of the Cherries.

They’ve started poorly and if City get into their groove, it could turn ugly very quickly for a Bournemouth side that have been on the wrong end of a few City hammerings in the past.

City and Agüero have started okay so far, contrary to my prediction of them starting on fire, with a steady 2-0 victory at Brighton and a hard grinding 1-1 draw at home to Everton, where they were down to 10 men for the whole of the second half.

But the signs are there for City to explode into life and what better fixture to do it in, than the team they have scored 15 goals against in the last 4 matches against them. 

Whichever way you decide to go, good luck to you and remember that it’s YOUR team at the end of the day. The advice we give on here forms our own perspective and we don’t pretend to know everything or claim it as fact, it’s opinion, based on our experience and knowledge of playing FPL and watching the game we all love – football.

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2 thoughts on “FPL Captain Choices: Gameweek 3

Add yours

    1. I don’t own Lukaku so it’s Kane for me too, but if I had Lukaku, it would probably going on him. Form team + form player v a player who hasn’t scored with 14 goal attempts that have looked okay in their opening two fixtures.

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