FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 25

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 25 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric, who will you choose this gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article earlier introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > ‘The Captain Metric Explained…’

So, it was a half decent start for our new captain metric, which told us, based on relevant statistics, that Kane was the best captain candidate out of him, Sterling, Agüero and Salah last week.

Kane hit 8pts, which was good enough, this time, to finish 2nd.

Agüero hit 17pts however and took the gameweek by storm, whilst Sterling and Salah both blanked.

There were plenty of other options on the table last week, but this week looks slightly more straight forward with Manchester City hosting West Brom and Liverpool playing Huddersfield.

Let’s see if it really is that straightforward.

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2018-01-25 at 13.15.30

Rather unsurprisingly, following the hat-trick against Newcastle, Sergio Agüero takes top spot on our poll with 50% of the votes.

In the last 4 gameweeks, only Salah (18) has had more total goal attempts than Agüero (17), but the Argentine has had the most goal attempts inside the box of any player (15).

Manchester City have regressed recently in terms of their underlying attacking stats, now ranking 5th for both the number of big chances they’ve created over the last 4 games, as well as for shots inside the box, where previously they were ranked 1st or 2nd.

But it failed to stop them and Sergio against Newcastle and it would take a brave man to bet against that happening again.

Second in the poll is Mohamed Salah – perhaps 2nd down to Liverpool’s shock 1-0 defeat to Swansea on Monday.

Had that not occurred, I think Salah would be right up there with Sergio for the captain this week, but regardless of that defeat, Salah is still a brilliant choice this week that looks to be heavily backed again for GW25.

They’re playing a team that have conceded 9 in the last 4 games and haven’t won a game in their last 6.

You’d expect Liverpool to bounce here and for Salah to return to his prolific self, given that his underlying performances haven’t dropped off, with him having the most goal attempts of any player over the last 4 games, as well as having the most amount of big chances (6) of any player in that same period.

Raheem Sterling finished in 3rd with just 10% of the votes, which I found quite surprising.

He was unlucky not to have scored against Newcastle with his goal being ruled out and also provided the assist to Agüero’s penalty.

However, when you look at his underlying stats recently, there is definitely a regression in his output, with him only managing 6 goal attempts in the last 4 gameweeks and him registering less penalty area touches (11) than Sané (32), Agüero (31), KDB (13) and even David Silva (13).

Sterling has only played 278 minutes out of a possible 360, but David Silva has only played 180 minutes in that time, so it is slightly worrying.

Differential captain options

Embed from Getty Images

 

  1. Hazard – This years troll without doubt for a lot of us, who brought him in for GW16 with such wondrous expectation only for it to be met with a string of uninspiring FPL returns. As soon as we get rid of him, following just 1 assist in 5 games, he scores 3 in 3. He also bagged last night in Chelsea’s 2-1 defeat to Arsenal in the Carabao Cup Semi-Final, making us turn our heads again, but do we fall for another trap, or is Hazard finally going to reward us? Well this week he has a brilliant fixture and based on his form and performances, you’d have to expect him to deliver in this one. If you have him, it could be a brilliant differential captain.
  2. KDB – If you fancy the fixture and don’t have Agüero or don’t fancy Sterling, then KDB could be a great option. The Belgian playmaker has been ticking over nicely with 4 assists in his last 5 games, but no goals in that time. With WBA likely to come to the Etihad and sit back, KDB will be the man tasked with breaking it down and he often does. City have scored 14 goals in their last 4 home games in the PL and when they score big, KDB is very often highly involved.
  3. Firmino – Liverpool need to bounce back after their shock defeat to Swansea on Monday night and I expect them to against a Huddersfield side who are struggling a little currently. In terms of big chances created and shots inside the box, Liverpool are rated second in both only to Spurs, with 10 big chances created and 40 shots inside the box in the last 4 gameweeks, so this shows their underlying attacking performances have still been very good recently. Firmino’s goal involvement when Liverpool score 3 or more is incredible, with him scoring 2 attacking returns in 7 of the 12 times Liverpool have scored 3 or more goals in a PL match. So if you fancy Liverpool to score 3 or more against Huddersfield, then punting on this man could be a great shout.

My view…

I certainly don’t fancy Kane this week, with Mourinho’s bus coming to town. Kane has only managed to score once against United in the last 7 meetings between them. I’m not ruling out that he could score, but Mourinho will park the bus and a goal is about as much as I can see from Kane in this one.

If I owned Agüero, it would be a very tough call between him and Salah. I’d honestly probably need to consult the metric myself to make a decision between those two.

Embed from Getty Images

 

Personally however, as I don’t own Agüero, Salah will be my captain ahead of Kane and Sterling, as I think Huddersfield are really struggling at the moment and Liverpool will have a reaction to that defeat to Swansea and they’re [Liverpool] still putting in great underlying stats, as is Salah, who perhaps might have done a little better with his volley against the Swans.

If I had to pick a differential, I’d probably shoot for Firmino, mainly because I just think Liverpool are going to score3/4 goals against Huddersfield and when they do, Firmino usually hauls.

The Captain Metric says… 

Screen Shot 2018-01-25 at 16.12.25

Mohamed Salah.

Salah wins this one quite comprehensively, with him beating his City rivals on every relevant stat.

As stated earlier in this article, City have regressed slightly in terms of their attacking underlying stats, with only 10 big chances created in the last 5 gameweeks in comparison to Liverpool having created 15.

Salah’s opponents, Huddersfield, have also conceded more than twice as many big chances as WBA have in the last 5 gameweeks.

You might argue that the reason for that might be because of weaker opponents, but WBA have played Everton twice, Arsenal, West Ham and Brighton in their last 5 in comparison to Huddersfield having played Stoke twice, West Ham, Burnley and Leicester in their last 5.

So both runs haven’t been easy, with WBA perhaps having the tougher set of fixtures there of the two.

So there you have it, Sergio wins the poll, but Salah wins the metric.

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk 

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: