FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 27

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 27 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric, who will you choose this gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article earlier introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > ‘The Captain Metric Explained…’

So after our Metric’s suggestion coming 2nd in the first two gameweeks between the key captain options, it wins out with it’s suggestion of Mohamed Salah, who smashed a brace in against Spurs to take home a monster 15 point haul.

The other key options were Kane and Agüero.

Agüero blanked in the early kick off against Burnley in what I felt would be a more difficult game than a lot of people might have thought, but he had the form and has a great goalscoring record against Burnley, which was enough for him to win our poll.

Kane reached the 100 Premier League goal club against Liverpool in dramatic fashion after netting a second penalty, but having missed the first penalty awarded to them, Kane only managed 4pts for his backers.

It was a week where a lot chose to give a differential captain a go, in particular (in the Twitter FPL community), it was Alexis Sánchez who was trusted to give punters a big boost up the ranks, but he scored the rebound from the penalty he missed which meant he’d only get 5pts instead of a potential 10 pointer, had he just netted from the penalty spot.

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2018-02-07 at 12.26.30

Salah – 65% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 18 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Kane – 15% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 22 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Agüero – 15% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Differential captain options

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  1. Sánchez – After bagging his first goal for United, Alexis will be hungry for more. He was the player with most amount of overall attempts for the gameweek (6), ahead of Mo Salah (4), Agüero (3), Kane (5) and Sterling (5). Newcastle have only conceded 6 goals in their last 5 games, but the underlying stats suggest that they have been slightly fortunate to have not conceded more. They have conceded the third highest amount of big chances (12) of any team over that time. With higher quality in attacking areas visiting St. James Park on Sunday, Sánchez in particular, may be set to gatecrash their fortunate defensive ratio.
  2. KDB – Most of his goal threat comes from long range as we know, with only 9 penalty area touches in the last 4 gameweeks, but we know how lethal he is when he does get into those areas and even without that, he’s lethal from long range too. Over that time, he’s had the second highest amount of goal attempts of the midfielders (14). So despite operating a little deeper than the players he mainly competes with, he’s still providing a regular goal threat and we know that his assist potential in every game is very high. Leicester’s defence has been very good recently, with only 3 goals and 5 big chances conceded in the last 5 GWs, but if anyone can ruin those statistics, it’s Kevin de Bruyne.
  3. Son Heung-Min – The only players that received more big chances in the last 4 gameweeks than Son, is Kane and Salah. Son has received 4 big chances and has registered 12 goal attempts in that time, 11 of which have come inside the box. With a less than stable Arsenal defence (14 big chances conceded in the last 5 GWs) visiting Wembley next, Son could really be the only one that matches Kane for his points potential in this game. So if you fancy Spurs to score a few against Arsenal but don’t want to choose Kane for whatever reason, Son could be a fantastic differential captain.

My view… 

It seems the public (FPL Twitter community) mainly favour Salah and you really can’t argue with that with him already above 200 points with 12 gameweeks still left to play.

I agree with the public this week and I fancy Mohamed Salah against a team that have conceded 2 against Palace, 2 against Watford and 2 against WBA in recent times.

Having said that, Harry Kane and Tottenham have been very good recently and I think Arsenal’s defence is there for the taking, so I think it’s a close call between those two this week and one where I think both should be scoring well.

I think Leicester will be a tough game for City so personally, I wouldn’t be too keen on captaining one of their players this gameweek – Puel has them well organised and has successfully galvanised them.

Embed from Getty Images

 

In terms of a differential punt, everything points toward Alexis Sánchez this week. Newcastle’s defence has been fortunate to have not conceded more in recent times and it looks well set up for Sánchez and co to punish them.

The one reservation I have, is that I don’t trust United’s attack as much as I trust the likes of Arsenal’s, Liverpool’s and Tottenhams’ – City goes without saying.

The underlying stats also back that up, with Tottenham (65), Liverpool (76), Arsenal (70) all having created more big chances than Manchester United (58) over the course of the season so far – that’s including the start United had when they were scoring for fun.

If we take the last 10 gameweeks however, it’s much worse, with 13 teams boasting more ‘big chances created’ than United (14), Palace, Brighton, Newcastle, Stoke, Swansea and Watford to name some.

The Captain Metric says… 

Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 14.56.13

… Mohamed Salah. 

Okay, so this is an intriguing one and our very first draw of the captain metric, but I identified in my explaining of the captain metric article that in the event of a draw, the winner would be decided by ‘Player Form’ and Salah clearly has the form over his captain rivals, with 50pts accrued in the last 5 gameweeks where he’s been involved, to Kane’s 29 and Agüero’s 36.

The ‘Player Form’ kicker I am using is subjective and doesn’t have to be what you go with, I just felt that this stat was the most important in terms of a deciding factor.

That being said, there are other factors that are relevant to this;

  1. Salah is a midfielder who actually plays as a forward and thus will score 1 more point for a goal and will get a clean sheet bonus over Kane.
  2. It’s also true that Salah is simply far more reliable and consistent an FPL asset in comparison to Kane, who has blanked far more than Salah has.

So even without my subjective opinion, there are enough outside factors that tip it in Salah’s favour, but Kane’s record against Arsenal coupled with Arsenal’s shaky defence may be too difficult to ignore.

The fact is however, that both Kane and Salah are fantastic captain options this week in equal measure in terms of their potential points return, but based on all the information, Salah wins our poll and takes down the metric too.

All the best for gameweek 27!

Stats obtained from www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk 

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