FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 28

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 28 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric, who will you choose this gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article earlier introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > ‘The Captain Metric Explained…’

Aguero’s monster 4 goal haul was predicted by about the same number of people who predicted the numbers of the Euro Millions draw – that’s right, no-one.

But in all seriousness, if someone did manage to predict it, then I take my hat off to you, because 99.9% of us, didn’t see that one coming.

Of course we know he’s always capable because he’s a world-class striker and has done it before, but with Leicester’s recent form under Puel and City’s unconvincing performances against Burnley, Bristol City in both legs, as well as the defeat to Liverpool, it was one of those freak occurrences that happens once, perhaps twice a season.

The metric identified Salah as the best bet on paper and with yet another healthy double-figure return of 13pts, Salah captainers can’t complain too much.

Those who backed Kane however might have felt a little disappointed with their spoils given the returns of Salah and Agüero, with the Spurs man only managing a 6pt return.

The main trio have decent fixtures again for GW28, so let’s get to the good stuff.

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2018-02-20 at 17.24.31

Mohamed Salah – 64% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 29 penalty area touches
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Harry Kane – 28% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 27 penalty area touches
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sergio Agüero – 6% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 33 penalty area touches
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 17 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 8 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Differential captain options

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  1. Mané – Mané is starting to show signs of improvement ahead of a strong run of fixtures for Liverpool. His hat-trick in Liverpool’s impressive dismantling of Porto at Porto reminded us of how devastating he can be too, with Salah and Firmino usually hogging the spotlight. In the last 6 gameweeks he’s had 22 penalty area touches, 15 goal attempts with 11 of those coming inside the box. West Ham have been decent defensively recently, with only 5 goals conceded in their last 4 games, but Liverpool are flying and if Mané is back to top form, there’s little chance the Hammers defence will keep their front 3 out.
  2. Sterling – A while back, we spotted that Sterling’s underlying stats were dropping off somewhat, but he’s starting to pick it back up again with him registering the most amount of penalty area touches (39) in the last 4 gameweeks of any player. In that time he’s also had 10 goal attempts, 8 coming inside the box and 3 big chances. His opponents, Arsenal, have conceded the most amount of big chances of any team in the last 4 gameweeks (14) and with City being knocked out of the FA Cup to Wigan last night, Pep will want to see a big reaction. I think Sterling could be great captaincy pick for this fixture – with Jesus now back in the squad, casting doubts over Agüero’s game time again – in what I can only see as being an open and high-scoring game.
  3. Eriksen – Eriksen has been a steady source of FPL points over the course of this season. Currently, he’s averaging around 5.3pts per game, which at his price, isn’t amazing, but it is solid. Over the last 6 gameweeks, he’s had 16 goal attempts (6 inside the box) and created 20 chances, 5 of which being big chances, which is the most of any player over that time. Palace have conceded the second most amount of goals (9) in the last 4 Premier League games of any team and with an in-form Spurs side coming to town, it’s difficult to see them keeping Kane and co out. Fresh off the back of a huge goal against Juventus, I can see a confident Eriksen having no problem returning points against a Palace side who look like they’re beginning to struggle.

My view… 

Salah is a big favourite in the community in comparison to Kane/Agüero this week and understandably so.

Agüero would have been my choice if we were sure he would play 90 minutes in the Premier League match against their cup final opponents on Thursday, but Gabriel Jesus is back in first team training now, with the club reporting that he could be named in the match day squad for the Carabao Cup final this weekend.

With Jesus now back, we can’t be sure of Agüero’s minutes, but the fixture looks set to produce goals, with 9 of the last 10 fixtures between the two in all competitions producing 3 or more goals, so it could still be fruitful should you choose to take a punt, but it is risky.

Harry Kane and Spurs – Rochdale result aside – have been in very good form, with big performances and results coming against Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal and Juventus in the last 3 weeks.

Kane has scored 5 in his last 5 PL games and came on in the second half against Rochdale for the last 15 minutes, diminishing any worries of potentially not being involved on the weekend.

His last 4 FPL returns however, have been 6, 4, 2 and 8, which is hardly inspiring when you compare them to Salah and Aguero’s recent returns, but despite player form, I have a strong feeling that Kane will hit double figures this weekend against Palace.

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As of this moment, I fancy Harry Kane, but this one is my own gut feeling – something I haven’t had for a long time!

In terms of a differential captain, I like Raheem Sterling’s chances against a leaky Arsenal defence.

The Captain Metric says…

Screen Shot 2018-02-20 at 15.14.07

Sergio Agüero – in normal circumstances, but unfortunately, the circumstances are not so normal… 

For the second GW in a row, the results are tied, with both Kane and Agüero winning 2 stats each.

Now normally, as I suggest in my outline of the concept, the kicker I identified in the event of a tie, is ‘Player Form’ and in any other scenario, I’d happily own and go with Agüero but, the statistics can’t account for the mad genius that is Pep Guardiola, who somehow has the strength and belief in his ideals enough to bench someone as outstandingly good as Sergio Agüero.

In this particular context one factor we must consider that’s subjective and cannot be quantified, yet is hugely important when picking your captain, is how ‘nailed-on’ the player is and with Jesus now back, both Kane and Salah are more ‘nailed-on’ for 90 minutes this GW than Agüero and thus, should both be ahead of Agüero in the pecking order, unless you like taking risks of course.

So, if you take the results of the metric and the additional supporting subjective information above, then Harry Kane is the best captaincy choice, in theory, for GW28.

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk







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