In this weeks series, I take to the FPL community ahead of gameweek 30 to answer their questions, featuring whether it’s a good blank gameweek 31 strategy to sell some players for it and buy back at a higher price and how best to climb the ranks at this stage of the season
First of all, let me extend my thanks to those who posted their questions – I hope my answers provide you and all the readers with food for thought.
This week, I’ve chosen 2 to answer and they have been provided by:
- Who Got The Assist
- Bilal Faridy
‘Sell and buy back’ a good strategy for BGW31?
The answer to this question is dependant on a variety of different things;
- How much you paid for the player you want to sell
- Which player you want to bring in
- Whether it’s for a hit or not
- Do you have your second wildcard available
Starting with number 1;
The answer to this is subjective, as it completely depends on how much of your team value you’re personally willing to lose out on for the potential to gain some points.
For me, I would be comfortable losing £0.1/0.2m between my current selling price and the price I’d have to pay to bring him back in, in a ‘sell and buy back’ move and anything more than that is a no, but that’s just a general rule of thumb that I use personally.
Even with that, I’d have to be extremely confident that the player I’d be bringing in has a high potential to score points for that period – if that’s even remotely in doubt, then it’s not worth it in my opinion, especially if you aren’t holding the second wildcard.
Moving nicely onto number 2;
It all depends how confident you are in that player returning you points for the period of time you plan on having him in – in this context, just for BGW31.Embed from Getty Images
The Liverpool assets I would say are the only ones anyone should be breaking their necks to get in for this blank gameweek, but a fair majority already own 3 and most will own two.
Anything beyond that, might not be worth it, given the pool of players that are available.
If they blank, then you’ve simply wasted team value that could have gone toward affording a better team on your wildcard (if you still have it) – it could end up being the difference between getting that perfect team and ending up with something you’re not completely happy with, and we’ve all been there.
This one depends on who it is exactly you’re thinking about bringing in, as I think some might be worth it, but others certainly aren’t.
So for this, it links back to number 2 and about how confident you are in that player returning you points.
If you don’t own Bobby Firmino for example and you bought Kane at £12.7m, meaning you would lose £0.1m team value having to buy him back after BGW31, then taking a hit to bring Bobby in for Kane would be worth it in my opinion, as Firmino has a very good chance of scoring well and you’d only lose £0.1m team value for what has a great chance of being a positive points swing.
Plus, Firmino only has to score 4 points rather than 6 points to break even in this deal, as Kane doesn’t play and will score 0 rather than at least 2 – what are Firmino’s chances of scoring at least 4pts at home to Watford?
If you’re looking to bring in someone like Walcott though, who’s potential for points in BGW31 isn’t great, for Sterling, who you bought early at £8.0m, meaning you’d lose £0.3m team value if you’re buying back, then that, in my opinion, wouldn’t be worth the hit.
Last but not least is number 4;
Generally speaking, if you have your second wildcard available, then it makes the ‘sell and buy back’ strategy more feasible in comparison to those who don’t have it, as those without will need every single free transfer they have left to use on preparing themselves for DGW34 and beyond, rather than wasting it on a ‘sell and buy back move’ in a gameweek where the points potential is very low.
How best to climb the ranks at this stage of the season?
This one depends on your current rank.
Lower in rank (500k or lower);
At this time of year, climbing the ranks is relatively easy if you’re lower down the ranks.
So long as you plan your way efficiently, using articles/stats etc, through the double and blank gameweeks and you use your chips to optimise your points potential in those double and blank gameweeks, you will rise.
This is an example I posted on an earlier ‘Simon Says’ article displaying what I felt was the best way to optimise the chips if you had all of them available:
- Use free transfers to field 8/9 players in BGW31.
- Wildcard in GW32/33.
- Bench boost in DGW34.
- Use Free Hit in GW35.
- Triple captain in DGW37.
High in rank (100k or higher);
If you’re highly ranked however, as Bilal is (1,685th), then it becomes infinitely more difficult to rise, as the vast majority of players around you will know exactly how best to navigate this period.
You can also assume that the vast majority of managers within the top 10k will be playing mostly conservatively, so the only way you can counteract that, is by being slightly more brave and aggressive than they are being.
Your overall play must largely stay the same, as too much risk could cost big, but if you’ve found you’re hovering around the same spot and you want to keep rising, then you have to take little chances here and there.
Keep playing the percentages, for example, if a player is being backed heavily in the captain polls, then continue to captain that player, but if there’s a week where there’s not one stand-out captain option, then go with your instincts and take a punt on someone other than the player leading the polls.
Keep searching for differential gems, or signs of the template breaking and perhaps look at breaking the template yourself for someone you think is about to hit form.
Timing is key – it’s about being patient and waiting for those opportunities to arrive and then when they do, having the courage to take the bull by the horns.
Most importantly, play YOUR game and trust YOUR OWN instincts, as that’s what got you there in the first place!