FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 32

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 32 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric, who will you choose this gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article earlier introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > ‘The Captain Metric Explained…’

Absolutely everything was pointing towards Salah for the captaincy last gameweek, including our metric of course, and to say ‘he delivered’, just doesn’t quite do it justice.

Those who decided to against the Egyptian superman, were essentially going into a fight with him kryptonite-less and the end result wasn’t pretty, as Salah went on to notch a mighty 29pt return.

Every goal that went in must have felt like a blow to the stomach to non-Salah captainers, as Salah simply kept wheeling away in celebration.

Firmino’s solitary goal and bonus and Mane’s 2 assists on any other day, would have felt like some form of consolation, but not this gameweek.

As we move into the final and most exciting part of the FPL season, with chips and wildcards aplenty, will we dare to go against Salah, especially those that need to make up ground, or should we simply be bowing down and making sculptures of this FPL sensation?

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 17.19.30

Mohamed Salah – 66% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 36 penalty area touches
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 6 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Pierre Aubameyang – 25% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 18 penalty area touches
  • 8 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Riyad Mahrez– 6% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 15 penalty area touches
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Differential captain options: 

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  1. Lukaku – With 3 goals, 2 assists and 33 FPL points in his last 5 games, Romelu Lukaku, after his brilliant start and being over 50% ownership at the beginning of the season, is finally showing the kind of form again that warrants our attention. Over those last 5 games, that’s an average of 6.6 points per game, which he’d need to maintain or better to justify his heavy pricetag, but with the confidence surging through him again, which is evidently displayed in his all round performances recently, it’d be a brave man that’d bet against him maintaining it. Mourinho’s controlled and somewhat restricted style of play (from an attacking sense) is a worry for his FPL potential, especially with regard to giving him the captain armband, but United have great fixtures and that should mean letting the attacking restraints off.
  2. Sterling – Manchester City aren’t showing any signs of slowing down. They play against an Everton side that have conceded the joint 4th most amount of shots inside the box (45) over the last 5 gameweeks. Manchester City have had the most amount of shots inside the box (52) and have scored the most amount of goals inside the box (10) over that period of time. Sterling loves getting into the box and getting on the end of crosses/passes, which is why he’s sitting on 15 goals and 11 assists in the league so far. His positioning and movement has vastly improved under Pep’s tutor ledge and I can see him taking advantage of Everton’s inability to not concede shots inside their penalty area.

My view… 

I think there are some decent alternative options to Salah for the captaincy this week, does it mean I’d advocate going against him however? No.

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If you’re chasing, like last week, this week isn’t the week to be choosing a differential captain in my honest opinion.

Without Kane and Agüero, Salah will be, again, captained by a massive % of FPL managers and against Palace, he could easily see double-figures yet again.

It just isn’t worth going against him, so magic Mohamed Salah again for me this week.

Embed from Getty Images

 

In terms of a differential captain (if you dare), I’d actually go with Raheem Sterling.

Not many will think to go there, with Lukaku and Aubameyang having good fixtures on paper, but Everton’s defence hasn’t been great and whilst they might be better at home than away, City will be simply too good for them and I can see Sterling bagging a goal at the very least.

The Captain Metric says (you’ll never guess)…

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 16.48.02

… Mohamed Salah.

This week, as you might have imagined, it’s not even close.

After his quite incredible 29pt return last GW, that means that Salah has scored 62pts in the last 5 GWs, an average of 12.4pts per game over that period.

In terms of team form, Liverpool have created 17 big chances of the last 5 GWs, to Arsenal’s 11 and Leicester’s 10, demonstrating their proficiency in attack.

Salah has a quite incredible xGI Delta value of 5.03, which means he’s contributed 5.03 more goals/assists than he was expected to over that time – an unbelievable stat highlighting just how much he’s over-performing at the moment.

Both Palace (Salah’s opponents) and Stoke (Aubameyang’s opponents) have conceded 12 big chances in the last 5 PL games, so both teams should create plenty of big chances for Salah and Aubameyang.

In contrast, Brighton (Mahrezs’ opponents) have only conceded 4 big chances in their last 5 PL games, only Man City have conceded less (2), suggesting that Mahrez might just have a tougher afternoon that some might think.

So, once again, Salah wins out by a landslide, with the poll, myself and the metric all going with him.

It might be boring to some, but a player as dominating as this only comes around once every so often – my advice is to enjoy it whilst it lasts!

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk

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