FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 33

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 33 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article earlier introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > ‘The Captain Metric Explained…’

Gameweek 32 saw Salah continue to perform week on week, as he notched yet another goal in their tough away game at Crystal Palace, but once again, didn’t manage to get in the bonus points despite scoring the winner, meaning a 7pt return for the Egyptian King.

However, it was Aubameyang that stole the show in the end, taking home a tidy 13 points that probably should have been 17 had it not been for him feeling sorry for his teammate Lacazette, who hadn’t scored for a while, handing the second Arsenal penalty to him – can’t say I’d of done the same thing in that situation, but fair does to him for being unselfish, though I’m betting a lot of Aubameyang captainers wouldn’t have seen it that way!

It was perhaps a little fortunate given the abject Arsenal performance up until the penalty went in, a penalty that Stoke were rather unfortunate to concede too, as on review, it looked like the defender did get the ball, but those who took a chance on Aubameyang won’t care.

Aubameyang is back at the Emirates this Sunday, playing a woeful looking Southampton side that just got well-beaten by West Ham 3-0, who aren’t in great shape themselves, likely putting him right at the top of our thinking for the captaincy in GW33.

Kane made a second half substitution appearance against Chelsea, capping off an extremely fast recovery, meaning he now comes into consideration for the captaincy again, given that Spurs love to play Stoke and it’s Stoke away up next for them.

Salah has a midweek crunch UCL quarter final tie against Manchester City before he plays Everton in the derby on the weekend, then plays City in the second leg the following midweek, possibly leaving some doubts around his potential gametime.

So for gameweek 33, it doesn’t seem so straightforward for the captaincy, let’s see if we can shed some light on it.

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2018-04-03 at 14.38.37

Mohamed Salah – 28% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 33 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 6 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Pierre Aubameyang – 39% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 20 penalty area touches
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Harry Kane – 31% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the 4 gameweeks before gameweek 30 (his injury):

  • 27 penalty area touches
  • 21 total goal attempts.
  • 18 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Differential captain options:

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  1. Heung-min Son: After a quiet spell from GW24-28, Son is well and truly back in the fold in explosive fashion, with 36pts in the last 3 gameweeks. Spurs play Stoke up next and in their previous 5 meetings, Spurs have knocked a whopping 19 goals past them. Not only that, but in the reverse fixture this year, Son hit a 16 point haul and the last time they played them away from home, Son hit a 19 point haul with 2 goals and an assist. It’s a fixture Spurs love and a fixture Son loves.
  2. Riyad Mahrez: Mahrez comes into this one in decent form, with 2 goals and one assist in his last 4 gameweeks. Leicester host a Newcastle side that look all but safe, with them putting a nice 7pts between themselves and 18th placed Southampton with their 1-0 win over Huddersfield on the weekend. I think Rafa will have set them a target of 40pts, but I think everyone at the club knows they should be safe now and that can create complacency. Leicester don’t have anything much to play for now either, but Mahrez has personal motivations and that should be enough to see him put in a good performance here.
  3. Jamie Vardy: If you’re looking for Mr Consistent, then look no further than Vardy. He’s only blanked 3 times in his last 10 gameweeks, with 7 goals scored over that period. Like Mahrez, Vardy has personal motivation in that he’s fighting to ensure he gets a spot on that plane to the World Cup with England. If Newcastle do show up and display any complacency, then Vardy is one, like Mahrez, that could take advantage.

My View… 

This week is a mighty tough one, as a lot of us sold Harry Kane when he suffered his injury, only to find out that he’s already back way ahead of schedule.

What makes it even more difficult, is that both Aubameyang and Lukaku, the two premium strikers people looked to replace the Spurs front man with, hit 13 and 8 points respectively last gameweek.

Salah also continued his incredibly high-scoring, consistent form with yet another goal however, I would rule Salah out of this one, down to the fact that they have the two quarter final ties with City either side of the derby this week and that means we simply can’t be assured of his minutes.

If that wasn’t occurring, then I would keep it on Salah hands down, as Everton are looking pretty poor right now, derby or not.

He could of course still get 80+ minutes against Everton and destroy them, but I feel it’s an unnecessary risk to take when there are 2 very good alternative options, who aren’t at risk of rotation/less gametime.

So that leaves Kane or Aubameyang.

Between these two, I would say that Harry Kane is the best option.

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I think Spurs are a better attacking team than Arsenal, I think they’re a more together unit than Arsenal right now, I think Kane has greater personal motivation than Aubameyang right now (see link above), I think Kane is a more selfish striker than Aubameyang (no way Kane gives up a penalty on a hat-trick) and more than anything, Kane has pedigree at this time of year and in my opinion, is a better overall striker than Aubameyang.

In terms of a differential captain option, I’ve got to go with Heung-min Son.

I don’t think that Harry Kane coming back in at striker is going to negatively effect Son, if anything, it’s better for Son, as he’s much more effective coming in from the left with Kane leading the line, which is how they’ve been playing it for most of the season.

Both Kane and Son have great records against Stoke and it’s hard to make a case against them performing well again come the weekend.

The Captain Metric says…

Screen Shot 2018-04-03 at 15.26.49

Harry Kane. 

I’ve made a few altercations to the metric this week to make the 3-way battle fairer, as ICT Index is calculated progressively over time, meaning that because Aubameyang has only played 6 PL games, his ICT Index score is much lower than the other two solely because of that, rather than how influential, creative or threatening he has been in those 6 PL games – something FPL might have to work on in the future.

So I’ve taken that out and put xGI in it’s stead so you can see how it and xGI Delta relate to each other.

When taking Kane’s form, xGI and xGI Delta scores into consideration, I’ve gathered the data from the 5 gameweek period between GW25-29, rather that when he was injured in GW30 and only came on for 16 minutes against Chelsea in GW32 to make the metric results more representative of Kane’s ability and performances.

As you can see, based on that, Kane beats Salah 3-2 down to;

  • Spurs being the team that is the best at creating big chances, with 19 created to Liverpool’s 15 over the last 5 GWs
  • Spurs having the better fixture, with Stoke having conceded 15 big chances over that period to Everton’s (Liverpool’s opponents) 7 big chances conceded
  • Kane having a better expected goal involvement score of 4.79 to Salah’s 4.67

Salah is without doubt the form man and is not only hitting his ‘expected goal involvement’ score of 4.67 goal/assists in a 5 gameweek period, but is blowing it out of the water by an extra 4.33 goals/assists, having scored a ridiculous 7 goals, as well as notching 2 assists, but with doubts surrounding his gametime, as I mentioned previously, it’s just an unnecessary risk to take with options like Kane and Aubameyang available this week.

Southampton were incredibly poor last week and Aubameyang’s form and stats are also very good as you can see above, but what worries me about Arsenal, is how they performed before they got the penalty.

I don’t expect to see that kind of performance from a Spurs side who will be high on morale after their brilliant 3-1 win at Chelsea last time out.

Make no mistake, all 3 options are great for GW33, but whilst the community fancy Aubameyang, I and the metric say Harry Kane.

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk




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