FPL Captain Metric: Double Gameweek 34

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Double Gameweek 34 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article earlier introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > ‘The Captain Metric Explained…’

Last Gameweek saw Harry Kane claim, ‘on his daughter’s life’ that the ball touched his shoulder on it’s way into the back of the net from Eriksen’s expertly taken free-kick however, despite his adamancy and Official FPL actually originally awarding the goal to him, it was later taken away from him.

Had the goal stood, the captain metric would have been correct in it’s suggestion last week (Kane), as 24pts are awarded for a goal to a striker and an additional 3pts are awarded for a player scoring the winning goal in a game in the BPS system, taking Kane’s BPS total to 29 – a score that would have seen him collect 2 bonus points and a final score of 7, rather than 1.

In my opinion, if you can’t see (from numerous extra slow-motion replays from several different angles) that the ball has slightly changed direction or that there isn’t a significant touch, then a goal shouldn’t be awarded in any case, like Lukaku v M’boro last year for example, yet they gave that one, but decided to take Kane’s away – I think FPL have considerable work to do in this area, a slight digression admittedly!

Moving on, I think the correct decision has ultimately been made in the end RE Kane and as such, it was Aubameyang’s solitary goal and no bonus (6pt return) that won the day last Gameweek, with Salah not in the squad against Everton.

This week marks the beginning of ‘Double Gameweek season’ and I for one, despite having a rather adequate year, have got Double Gameweek fever!

It looks as though the tussle for captain for DGW34 is firmly between the Belgian brute Lukaku and Mr Greed himself, Harry Kane – let’s see if we can break it down for you.

The results of our poll

Screen Shot 2018-04-10 at 15.37.02

Mohamed Salah – 11% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 33 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 6 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Romelu Lukaku – 38% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 17 penalty area touches
  • 5 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 1 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Harry Kane – 42% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the 4 gameweeks between GW27-GW29 + GW33 (to exclude injury in GW30, blank in GW31 and injury comeback in GW32):

  • 26 penalty area touches
  • 18 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Differential captain options:

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  1. Alexis Sánchez: His last 2 performances have been almost vintage Sánchez. I say ‘almost’, as the only thing missing from those last 2 performances, is plenty of goal attempts in dangerous areas. In the last 4 gameweeks, despite scoring an impressive 31 FPL points, he’s only managed 4 goal attempts, 3 of which inside the boxthat’s less than Ashley Westwood at Burnley (5). His creativity however, has been impressive, with 14 crosses and 8 chances created in that time, 3 of which leading to big chances and of course, 3 assists. If he can up his goal threat, then we have a very dangerous looking, huge differential captain option available to us, with him currently selected by just 3.4% of managers.
  2. Riyad Mahrez: Mahrez has featured quite heavily in this section with considerable success and with a DGW34 fixture plate of Burnley and Southampton, a tasty dish indeed, it serves as no surprise to see him feature again. Having said that, he has blanked in his last 2 games and Leicester haven’t been fantastic in terms of their attack. Regardless, Burnley haven’t been keeping as many clean sheets this year and Southampton are really struggling right now, especially at the back, with 10 goals conceded in their last 5, so Mahrez could be a great differential captain if you’re looking to climb those rankings.
  3. Christian Eriksen: The Spurs midfield are purring right now in terms of FPL points and any one of them are a good call for a differential captain in my eyes, but I’ve got to go with the Great Dane here. Over the last 5 gameweeks, only Stanislas (20) has had more goal attempts than Eriksen (19). I would say the downside to this stat, is that the majority of his shots (74%) come from outside the box, but he has such brilliant technique, that it really doesn’t matter for him. If he gets 180 minutes in DGW34, then he’s another one that could easily go big.

My view… 

With Liverpool’s probable progression tonight in the UCL and Salah having missed the derby through a minor injury, we can’t be sure of his minutes against Bournemouth, but if he plays 80+ in that game, then he really could do some damage.

With that doubt and him not having a double however, I think I’d rule him out of the captaincy decision.

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For me, it would be between Kane or Lukaku.

This one is a difficult one, as it seems Lukaku has really found form and United seem to have turned a corner, with big wins coming against Liverpool at Old Trafford and then an unbelievable turn around at the Etihad to win 3-2.

The 4-3-3 has unleashed Pogba, with him able to roam forward and cause havoc, as he did against City and Sanchez’ upturn in form, especially in terms of creativity, can only be good for Lukaku.

But above, you saw how poor Lukaku’s underlying stats are, with just 5 goal attempts in the last 4 gameweeks.

I’ve been looking at the underlying stats over the course of the entire season and I can tell you, his underlying stats have always looked like this.

The reason for this, is mainly down to the way United play and although the results and performances have undoubtedly improved recently, they’re still not using a high pressing, direct, fast-paced, or attacking style of play that Liverpool, Man City, Spurs and Arsenal use.

They don’t create a great deal of chances every game like these other teams do and because of this, Lukaku’s opportunities are limited and thus, his ceiling is lower as a result in comparison to the likes of Kane/Salah/Aubameyang/Agüero.

He doesn’t have penalties either and whilst he loves scoring arguably just as much as Kane does, he isn’t as desperate as Kane is, with him in pursuit of Salah for a hat-trick of golden boots.

So, based on all that, I think Harry Kane is the best choice for DGW34.

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In terms of a differential captain punt, I’d actually go with Eriksen, or even Son.

If City somehow turn it around against Liverpool, then it’s likely Pep would rotate for the Spurs match and if they lose again, then they could mentally vulnerable, either way, I think Spurs can score a few goals against them and then they go to Brighton, who have been well beaten on a few occasions at home by the big boys.

The Captain Metric says…

Screen Shot 2018-04-10 at 15.17.07

Mohamed Salah.

The metric reinforces Salah’s superiority in terms of performance, but it can’t take into account the weight and importance of a double gameweek, nor can it incorporate how nailed a player is to a play a game.

So of course, remember that this is only a statistical guide, not a future prediction tool.

There’s no doubt in my mind, that if Salah gets 80+ minutes against Bournemouth, that he could outscore both Kane and Lukaku, as Liverpool score plenty of goals and Salah is a machine, but based on the doubt that surrounds him starting and him having just the one game, it’s difficult to hand it to him over the other two.

The key battle here, is Lukaku Vs Kane, as the majority are going with one of these two players so, if you take Salah out of the equation above, Lukaku beats Kane 4-3 down to;

  • Lukaku having better form than Kane
  • Lukaku having an easier two fixtures than Kane
  • Lukaku currently over performing by a larger margin than Kane

There are two big things that are in Kane’s favour for me however, and 2 things that are very important when I look at who to captain.

The first, is how much more explosive Kane is in comparison to Lukaku, with the Spurs man having 8 double figure hauls to Lukaku’s 3.

The second, is that Kane is on penalties and Lukaku isn’t.

Neither team have been getting many this season and you might think it’s not that big a deal, but when you know your player is on penalties, there’s always a chance, as it doesn’t matter how bad they play, they still have a chance at scoring whereas, if the player is playing poorly or the team is playing poorly and your man isn’t on PK duties, then there isn’t much hope.

It’s an interesting one this week for sure, but after all that, the community and myself fancy Harry Kane, whilst the metric says to go Salah, and suggests Lukaku between him and Kane.

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk

One last word before you go! 

Screen Shot 2018-04-10 at 17.53.07.png

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