FPL Captain Metric: Double Gameweek 37

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Double Gameweek 37 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article earlier introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > ‘The Captain Metric Explained…’

So, it’s finally here, the big Double Gameweek where hero’s are born, where hitting a triple figure score is expected rather than hoped for and where huge gains can be made in mini-leagues and in the rankings!

It’s like Christmas for us FPL addicts and there’s plenty of planning and scheming to be done ahead of the penultimate Gameweek of the season.

Myself and the other contributors here at FPL Connect know exactly how important this one is and for some 40% of us still holding the Triple Captain chip, it’s one HUGE decision on one player that could make or break everything.

We know that at work, all you’re really thinking about is who you’re going to Triple Captain this week – we’d hate to see your productivity suffer because of FPL, so don’t fret, we’re here to help you make this decision so your boss doesn’t catch you staring at your FPL team!

With Kane and Spurs putting on an unconvincing show for us last night against Watford, it’s made things that little bit harder, seeing as the alternative would be to play Pep roulette, so lets dig in and see if we can help to clear the muddied water somewhat.

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2018-05-01 at 22.16.36

Harry Kane – 49% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 19 penalty area touches
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Raheem Sterling – 23% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats over the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 40 penalty area touches
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 6 assists.

Gabriel Jesus – 24% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 4 gameweeks:

  • 17 penalty area touches
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Differential captain options:

Screen Shot 2018-05-01 at 17.53.55.png

  1. Aubameyang – With the semi-final of the Europa League done with this Thursday, Aubameyang should start both games in the double gameweek and given his propensity to return FPL points consistently (6 goals and 3 assists in his 10 PL games), he represents a decent differential shout for the captains armband. It’s Wenger’s last game at the Emirates against Burnley and you have to think Arsenal will want to perform in that and win it comfortably. They then face an on the beach Leicester side that just shipped 5 goals against Palace, so you have to think there are returns in that one for Pierre.
  2. Eriksen – Eriksen continues to return points, even when Spurs aren’t at the their best, which was evidently displayed last night against Watford. He bagged the assist for Alli’s goal, meaning he’s now got 4 goals and 3 assists in his last 8 PL games, accumulating 53pts. Over the last 5 gameweeks, only Salah (21), Sterling (20) and Arnautovic (17) have fired in more goal attempts than the Dane (15). He looks nailed on to start both and has two good fixtures in WBA and Newcastle. If you’re a little unsure on Kane and don’t want to risk a City asset, then Eriksen would be a fine replacement.
  3. Alli – Another Spurs asset that could be worth your armband this week, is Dele Alli. Whilst his underlying stats don’t look particularly tempting, with just 7 goal attempts in the last 4 gameweeks, he has been popping up in the right places at the right moments recently and has 4 goals and 3 assists in his last 6 PL appearances after notching another goal last night. He hasn’t looked like the Alli of last season all year to me from what I have seen of him, but the one thing he is emulating from last season at the moment, is the timing of his runs and having that instinct of being in the right place at the right time. Based on that and the opposition he faces, he’s definitely worthy of some consideration if you’re looking for a differential.

My view… 

It was never going to be easy was it?

Ever since the fixtures were announced, I was on Harry Kane triple captain and nothing was going to change my mind, yet here I am, contemplating a City asset – typical.

Harry Kane and Spurs were supposed to turn up last night at Wembley and blow away an on the beach Watford side, but instead, what we got, was a fairly average attacking performance and a poor defensive performance that was lucky to see a clean sheet.

Watford played some good stuff going forward and didn’t concede all too many clear-cut opportunities either.

Harry Kane looked okay, but despite his goal, and the fact he was inches away from a brace when Vertonghen’s header came back off the post, I’m simply not convinced by him at all, no matter what he tells us in his interviews – he just doesn’t look his 100% best to me.

Do I think he’s going to score 2/3 between now and the end of the season? Of course, but do I see him exploding in this Double Gameweek? I’d have to say no and I don’t think many would disagree.

WBA look revived under Moore and the way Spurs are playing at the moment, I can’t see them winning that comfortably and with Rafa Benitez determined to keep his players focused, I can’t see them blowing the Magpies away either.

Then you look at City, and they’re scoring for fun – well and truly in party mood.

Screen Shot 2018-05-01 at 19.22.31.png

You look at their two fixtures (Huddersfield (H), Brighton (H)), and it’s completely conceivable that they score between 8-10 goals across those two fixtures, which instantly makes me want to give the Triple Captain to one of their attackers, but of course, the question is who?

I think it’s relatively safe to say – and I say relatively because this is Pep we’re talking about, so take it with a pinch of salt – that Pep will field his strongest 11, or closest to, against Huddersfield for the trophy presentation, but against Brighton, any one of them could be dropped in my opinion.

My feeling, is that Gabriel Jesus plays both because Agüero is out injured and that Kevin de Bruyne does too because only Ederson (3105) has played more minutes than KDB (2917), but beyond that, I really couldn’t call it.

Of course, whichever City asset you go with, you’re taking a risk, as we can’t be sure they start both, but the thing is, City could easily score more goals in their one game against Huddersfield than Spurs do across both of their fixtures.

So, based on that, I think Gabriel Jesus or Raheem Sterling are the ones to go for, with Jesus ahead of Sterling for me, down to the fact I think he starts both, but that’s a personal feeling, not a conclusive, factual recommendation.

If you’re not keen on going with Kane and don’t want to risk giving it to a City asset, then I think I’d be looking to Aubameyang for a differential captain. He’s very consistent and Arsenal have been very good attacking wise at home and then have a good away fixture v Leicester who have been very poor recently.

The Captain Metric says… 

Screen Shot 2018-05-01 at 19.42.43

… Raheem Sterling. 

The metric also agrees with me that Kane isn’t the one to go for here, with him losing on every relevant ‘captain metric’ statistic apart from the anytime goalscorer odds for the 1st round of fixtures.

In their last 5 games, both WBA and Newcastle have only conceded 5 goals, suggesting Spurs’ fixtures won’t be as easy as we might think, whereas City’s opponents Huddersfield have conceded 13 big chances in that time and Brighton have conceded 9 goals despite only conceding 7 big chances.

City also boast supreme attacking stats over the last 5 games to Spurs, with 17 goals scored and 19 big chances created in comparison to 9 goals and 10 big chances created by Spurs.

Both Sterling and Jesus are both in far better form than Kane and have much higher expected goal involvement values than the England International striker.

When it comes to the battle between the City lads, Sterling wins over Jesus because of his form and because his expected goal involvement is higher and is still over-performing at a higher level than Jesus, with 8 goal involvements (2 goals and 6 assists).

The problem here, is who’s more ‘nailed on’?

Well stats can’t tell us this, the only person that knows the answer to this, is Mr Guardiola himself, so none of us can know with any real degree of certainty, but I think Jesus is going to get more minutes than Sterling, so I’d be going with him over Sterling because of the Agüero injury and because of Bernado Silva being able to step in and play instead of Sterling.

So, after all that, it currently looks like the community are firmly in the safe corner of 180-minutes-guaranteed man Harry Kane, where as both myself and the metric suggest going with a City asset, with me suggesting Jesus and the metric suggesting Sterling.

Best of luck to all – we hope that we’ve been able to clarify some aspects of this decision for you, if not, we can only apologise!

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

 

 

 

3 thoughts on “FPL Captain Metric: Double Gameweek 37

Add yours

  1. Thank you for the insight. I think maybe Jesus is the one to TC, considering Kane’s form. But I am worried he will go crazy like he did last season.

    Liked by 2 people

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