In the second of our new ‘player value’ series, we ask: Is Walcott going to thrive under Silva?
One eye on the past – if we focus on the long-term, 1.8pts per game (goals, assists & bonus points) is low, but at £6.5M and a value for money target of 2.3pts a game (4.3 including appearance points), we’re alert to his potential.
Over the last ten, he’s had 4 big chances and converted none of them (his only goal during that period was versus NEW (not a big chance)). He’s also created 3 big chances across that period with 1 converted (and another assist versus HUD (not a big chance)).
Why is all of this important? Because he is only 0.5pts per game shy of where we need him to be (versus our value target), despite only converting a fraction of his big chance involvement.
One eye on the future – the astute FPL manager has already recognised that his price-tag, combined with working under a new manager, Marco Silva (a veritable all-out-attack manager when compared Big Sam), should see him be good value-for-money – indeed folks are talking about how good Richarlison looked under Silva and are questioning whether Walcott can do the same.
Our stats are clearly built on the Allardyce era, and are predicting EVE will make their opposition defences look average to very good over the opening five games and will struggle to score beyond 1 goal past most of them however, their opposition attacks will be made to look average at best with 3 or more clean sheets predicted.
What to do? – there is a simple way to look at this decision – if EVE continue to play the same as the Allardyce era, Walcott could return an average of 1.8pts per game (goals, assists and bonus points), bag some single clean-sheet points and see you hit value for money – its that simple however, IF EVE thrive (even a little bit) under Marco Silva, Theo could convert a few of those big chances (or his team-mates could convert his assists), and smash all value-for-money barriers.
He is undoubtedly a low-risk, potentially high-reward, option – with only 5% ownership at this time – ssshhh.
FPL Tip: historical stats are a fantastic indicator as to what might happen in the future, but be mindful about changing circumstances that might buck the trend.