Next in our new ‘Player Value’ series, we ask: Is smouldering Tosun going to fire?
One eye on the past – in the long-term, he has scored an average of 1.9pts per game (goals, assists & bonus points) which is short of our 2.5pts a game target (4.5 including appearance points). Over the last seven games he is low on goal involvement (only 1 goal), which is probably due to a lack of big chances (only 1 shot and 1 created). Might all of this be to do with the Big Sam effect? Yes – he certainly looked good on occasion, but didn’t manage to find consistency, with Allardyce’s negative tactics stifling chance creativity.
All of this is reflected in his player influence ratings (forecasted at 4th for both his share of goal-involvement and games involved-in goals) – but ignore this, Coleman, Niasse and Walcott are ahead of him due to more recent, but uninspiring, big chance numbers.
With all of that said, be mindful before you write him off completely, because between games 29 & 31 (versus BUR, BHA and STK) you’ll see that his stats were 4 goals, 4 big chance shots and 3 big chances created. More significantly is, that over the last ten, he has returned bonus points every-time he has scored – so if he does fire, there’s a more than good chance he is going to score you a decent overall total.
One eye on the future – Big Sam has gone and FPL managers and Everton fans alike, are hoping for a significantly greater focus on attack under Marco Silva. So might this see Tosun regularly banging in the goals? Only time will tell, but we can be optimistic from what we’ve seen of Silva so far – he’s hardly an Allardyce 2.0.
Our stats are clearly built on the Allardyce era, and are predicting EVE will make their opposition defences look average to very good over the opening five games and will struggle to score beyond 1 goal past most of them, which doesn’t bode well for an attacker. But you need to decide for yourself what the Silva impact will be on this.
Do be alert however, to Tosun’s goals versus similar opposition – in games three to five (BOU, HUD and WHU) – he has averaged 0.8 goals per game, with big chances of 1.4 per game. Form like this would blow his value for money target out of the water.
What to do? – Tosun feels like a player who needs to do a little bit more to prove himself. However, at £7M, a few goals in his opening fixtures and an Everton attack clicking will see him rocket from a, ‘Hmmm’ to a, ‘Yes please!’. So, as a gamble, he is low risk (relative to his value) but potentially high reward (value for money).
FPL Tip: FPL is a game of chance, but it is good decisions about how to allocate your budget that increases your chances significantly – taking a gamble on a player who consumes a small proportion of your budget is relatively low risk.