Premium Player Value: Sergio Agüero

Next in our new FPL ‘player value’ series, we talk about Manchester City: Sergio Agüero is next up. 

One eye on the past – based on the long-term, Agüero has returned an average of 2.9pts per game (goals, assists & bonus points) – which is short of where we’d need him to be versus our value for money target of 3.9 points per game (5.9 including appearance points).

But wait a minute – he has missed a massive 60% of games over this period (due to injury), so based on how we calculate these stats, coupled with the spread of games missed, we could assume his output at a massive 4.8pts per game – which smashes our target.

One eye on the future* – our algorithms have ranked him eight/ninth in terms of forecasted influence at Man City, but his historical lack of game-time coupled with City’s share of goal involvement across many players will be driving this – so don’t fret.

Our algorithms are forecasting Man City to score 2 to 4 goals per game across their first five fixtures – which suggest at least one of their assets is essential with two and even three a more than logical approach.

*note that goals forecasts might have changed slightly versus previous reviews because of enhancements to our algorithms.

What to do? – Agüero is not a straight forward decision, despite his brace in yesterday’s Community Shield making it look as though it is. It didn’t add anything we didn’t already know about him – if he’s fit and starts, we know he’s a fantastic player and a fantastic FPL asset, but the problem lies with Pep and whether we can rely on him to start and complete 90 minutes regularly.

Based on last season, Agüero started 82% of games (sample size = 11 games) when Jesus was also available and when they were playing in a 433 (played both Jesus and Aguero in a 352 at the beginning of last season) and also came off for Jesus regularly before 90 minutes.

Normally, shelling out £11m for someone you can’t trust to start, or complete 90 minutes when he does start, is a clear and obvious no HOWEVER, this is a team like we’ve never seen before, under Pep, who can destroy any team in the PL at will. So what you need to assess, is what you think Agüero might do, in this Pep side, in likely less game time, in comparison to someone like Aubameyang, who will probably get more game time, but in an Emery side.

His fantastic minutes per goal ratio of 93.8, the best of any other forward in the Premier League, is enough of a stat on it’s own to show us what he can do with the minutes he gets – couple that with the fantastic fixtures and the relative ease Manchester City are able to open up their opposition, and we think it’s Agüer-GO.

FPL Tip: An asset that provides regular returns, but also has a very high ceiling in terms of points potential (Kane/Salah for example) is usually priced at a premium because of this and because they can be trusted to start most games and play 80+ mins regularly. These players are captaincy material week in week out – someone like Eriksen/KDB is priced high, but isn’t so much a captaincy option, as their returns are consistent, but their ceiling for points potential is lower, or less explosive. Consider, when buying premium priced assets (£10m+), whether or not you can reliably captain them – it’s always wise to have at least 1 other reliable asset that you can captain. What if Salah’s form dips? Have you a suitable alternative you can trust?

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