FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 3

Welcome to our weekly series where we’re presenting the results of our FPL prediction tool to bring you the expected points returns of the players for the upcoming Gameweek 3, based on the bookies clean sheet and goal probabilities 

Our tool was presented to you last week so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

Add your team into our Prediction Tool

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Simon has entered his team into the tool as an example 

This week the methodology didn’t change but we’ve started to develop our interface. In the excel file you can find a new sheet named ‘your team’.

There you can see a table that is not showing any useful data. However in the column B you have lists of players for each position. From those lists you can choose players that you have or would like to have to see their expected points, average expected points for the upcoming week and sum of points for your team. There is also a delta column, which shows a difference between your players expected points and average expected points for his position.

Average points are rather low, as players who are not expected to play have two points less than others. We are considering adding average points calculated from players expected to play.

As it was last week – players expected to play are picked based on last GW line ups with changes in case of red cards. Team line ups are getting more stable now (besides some like Manchester City) so it should be a good prediction method.

One important thing is that your team score in the sheet is calculated from all players chosen in the table so if you want to have your proper expected score calculated, you need to leave in the table only your first team players.

Important note

It also does not feature double points for captains and as we have explained in our last article (click the link above to understand more), we have not yet added in assists or bonus points. That is why the total may seem a little lower than you might have been expecting.

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

GW2 GK

Top 10 Defenders

GW2 DEF

Top 10 Midfielders

GW2 MID

Top 6 Forwards

GW2 FWD

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy here and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies >>fpl 18-19 gameweek 3

Summary

Defensive perspective

It’s Liverpool (61.4%) that represent the best chance for a clean sheet this week and as such, their goalkeeper and defenders feature heavily as you’d expect.

Alexander-Arnold and Van Dijk are the top two for expected points returns, but with our tool being based on clean sheet and goal probabilities only, it fails to incorporate (for now) the high assist potential that Robertson carries and with that, you could argue he’d likely take over at the top. But both TAA and VVD carry significant goal threat.

Manchester City (53.7%) represent the next best chance for a clean sheet against Wolves, with their goalkeeper and backline well represented at the top of the expected points charts.

Given Ederson’s distribution expertise, after seeing his brilliant assist for Sergio Agüero’s opener at the weekend, we could potentially argue that he has an assist potential and that could increase his expected points return somewhat in the future when we add assists into the tool.

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Benjamin Mendy has put in a mammoth 16 crosses so far this season, only TAA (19) and Gudmundsson (21) have put in more, and again, you could argue that he’d likely top the expected points returns with assist potential taken into account, given that he’s already notched 4 assists in his first 2 games.

Elsewhere, Chelsea (45.7%) have a decent shot at a clean sheet away to Rafa’s Newcastle, but given the defensive frailties on show – evidenced by Arsenal last week – so far, you might not want to bank on this one too much.

Marcos Alonso however, has demonstrated that the new system, which has seen him become part of a back 4 as a LB rather than part of a back 5 as a wing back, isn’t going to negatively affect his attacking prowess, with a goal and 2 assists already to his name and as such, is ranked 3rd for expected points returns in the defenders list.

Attacking Perspective

Once again, it’s Mohamed Salah that rules the expected points total overall with a value of 8.74.

Sadio Mané (6.32), Roberto Firmino (4.99) and Naby Keita (4.58) all further represent Liverpool in the top midfielders and attackers list in what is expected to be a good week for them at the back and up top against Brighton at Anfield according to the bookies.

Manchester City players are once again featured well with GW2 hero Sergio Agüero (6.36), Gabriel Jesus (5.25) and Bernado Silva (4.88) making into the top mids and forwards charts with a game away at Wolves. Bernado was operating essentially as a wing back against Huddersfield, but it’s hard to see Walker not coming back in this week which should see B.Silva shift to a more central role.

Arsenal feature 4 players in the top mids and forwards, with them playing at the Emirates against a struggling West Ham side who are yet to adjust to the new regime under Pellegrini.

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Aubameyang (6.10) is ranked 4th overall for expected points returns, but after missing a sitter last weekend, could confidence become an issue? Owners will hope not. Mkhitaryan (5.36), Özil (4.71) and even Iwobi (4.53), are all expected to return well should they play v the Hammers.

Both Pedro (4.68) and Willian (4.56) make it onto the top 10 midfielders list, but with Hazard back in the fold, surely it has to be one of Pedro/Willian who drops? Pedro is favoured currently, but it does represent an issue for the owners of either of these assets.

Prediction Tool Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing it ourselves, but the spine of the team was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 2 score

So, we ‘only’ got 75 points in GW2, which was 15pts higher than average, but less than top10k average and placed us just inside the top 100k after two rounds.

Only a few players failed to deliver for us, with King blanking again and Jota getting less points than his similarly priced alternatives.

We’ve lost out on 11 points due to captaining Salah – nevertheless, he posted a decent score and on another night, he could have scored and got some bonus and then the bgap to Agüero would have been smaller.

With B.Silva being a big disappointment, due to City scoring 6 and Bernado not contributing at all, fortunately the rest of the squad did mostly better than it was expected and made up for it.

The defence was once again top notch when it comes to points/value and the front supplemented them nicely with a combined 4 goals, 3 assists and 5 bonus points.

Gameweek 3 team

This week, once again, we have some of the top choices in each position.

Salah is expected to get the most points this week, so he is our captain choice once more. Vice captain is Agüero with second most points expected this GW.

King and Jota were disappointing last week, they’ve also had the lowest expected points in our team. We’ve had two free transfers and although players like Pedro had higher expected points than Richarlison for this week, the latter is nailed on and has enormous percentage of owners, so missing each of his hauls will hurt our overall rank too much to not have him – Richarlison comes in.

There was also a need for a striker cheaper than £6.5m to be able to afford Richarlison, so we went with Danny Ings – nice expected score and great underlying stats in the last GW.

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According to our calculations, that team should get at least 55.75 pointsbut that’s not including our captain points, so if we add another 8.74 (Salah’s expected return), then we arrive at 64.49pts – a little more than last week (not including saves, assists and bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed).

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were based on last GW line ups. 

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >> https://twitter.com/Mikhatharahttps://twitter.com/Mikhathara

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