FPL Community Questions: Gameweek 4

I’m joined by female Youtuber FPL Nymfria to answer the community’s hottest FPL questions with regard to the upcoming Gameweek 4

Welcome back to our ‘Community Questions’ series where I (Simon), usually have my say on the communities conundrums in an attempt to provide a different perspective, or perhaps some statistical information or insight some of you may not have thought about.

Each week, I’m going to set up a thread and ask the community what questions they have and I’ll pick the interesting ones, or the questions that apply to a wider majority, to feature on this article where myself and a guest/guests from the FPL Twitter community will join me in providing you with our own answers.

This week I’m joined by FPL Nymfria.

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FPL Nymfria has been an integral part of the FPL Twitter community for the last 2 years and has been playing FPL for 7 years. She has a best finish of 23k and was the first female FPL YouTuber. She is a brilliant graphic designer and is also a part of the FPL Wildcats team as a co-host.

You can find her on Twitter engaging in discussion here >> https://twitter.com/NymfriaTV

Alternatively, you can visit and subscribe (please do) to her YouTube channel here >> https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXGSk5gJpFqPq5V6Ruun8Rw

OR, go sample the content the FPL Wildcats have to offer with Nymfria here >> https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQxITgpP2nR-5JvhkdzKY4Q?view_as=subscriber

Triple captain Agüero, or just normal captain Vs Newcastle? 

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

Think about what kind of pts return you would like from a triple captain, for me, 15-20pts is a success, with anything above being a bonus. So how likely is Agüero to hit that in 1 Gameweek vs Newcastle, vs what perhaps a Salah/Kane/Aguero could get you in 2 Gameweeks?

I’ve had mixed success with my triple captain (TC) chip so far, with Sánchez smashing it year 1 with 81pts, and Agüero and Kane letting me down in the last 2 seasons, all 3 in double Gameweeks. Despite the last 2 letting me down, I would still always go with a double Gameweek for my triple captain, as statistically, it’s got a higher chance of returning a higher score.

In this Gamweeek, if Agüero hit a brace and maximum bonus, he’d hit 13pts (39 if triple captained), if he hit 1 goal and max bonus in both games in a double Gameweek, that would be 18pts (54 if triple captained).

Having said that, I’m always an advocator of going with your gut, so if you have a gut feeling that Agüero is gonna go big against Newcastle, then go for it.

FPL Nymfria: 

I’ve been asked this question a lot this week. It’s a tough one to answer because we have seen the “Triple Captain” chip work well in both a single Gameweek and a double Gameweek situation. And, lets face it, Aguero’s stats at home to Newcastle are pretty good. Since the 2011/12 season Aguero has got 11 goals and 2 assists from his starts at The Etihad against The Magpies. He’s also had 5.74 shots per 90 minutes in all games so far this season, and was unlucky in his last match not to score after hitting the wood work twice.

My advice is always the same in this situation, if you feel like you’ll regret not doing it, then go for it! Otherwise, use it for a time when it sits better with you, for me that’s usually a double Gameweek, despite potential rotation risk, I like two bites at the ‘Triple Chip’ cookie.

Is Marcos Alonso a ‘must-own’ FPL asset? 

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

This is a good question for me to answer right now, as I don’t currently own him.

On the face of it, you could say yes easily, but for those who don’t own him yet like myself, it doesn’t necessarily matter what scores he’s got, as we can’t get them, they’re gone, we’ve missed them – we have to assess the future probability that he can continue providing great value and there’s no way he can continue at the rate he’s currently at.

There will be a regression, for us non-owners, it’s about assessing how big the regression will be. On average, he’s provided 10 attacking returns in the last 2 seasons in Conte’s system – he’s already provided 5 attacking returns, so how many more can we realistically expect in the nearer future?

Not only that, but Chelsea aren’t keeping clean sheets right now, not even against a Newcastle side that barely ventured out of their own half last weekend, so what happens if the attacking returns do dry up?

So no, I don’t think he’s a ‘must-own’ right now. I think if he continues to attack in the same way AND Chelsea start suring things up at the back, then yes, I’d say, that’s a ‘must-own’ Marcos Alonso.

FPL Nymfria: 

Considering I have taken -8 to accommodate Alonso in my team this Gameweek, I can’t really argue that he isn’t. Though whether I have missed Alonso’s major returns could be debated, I mean can he keep up the constant numbers we’ve seen so far of 11, 13 and 11 points in the past 3 Gameweeks?

What we can say about Alonso, is he’s been given the space under Sarri to get forward, something that we thought might not happen the before the season started. So one can only hope this means Alonso will continue to get into the areas that matter for us FPL managers, with a good run of fixtures ahead and at 32.6% owned, he is a ‘must-own’ for me.

Max out on Man City/Liverpool (for example) or go with greater variety? 

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

I never really think in this way. I just pick the players I think will provide the best returns for the price and everything else is what it is. If that means 5/6 Liverpool and Man City assets, then so be it.

FPL Nymfria: 

Given the form of both these teams, assuming that Liverpool and Manchester City are the two teams you are referring to, Liverpool winning all of their 3 matches so far and City winning 2 and drawing the other. Then form suggests we should, and most of us have, and for good reason.

Liverpool start to hit a bumpy fixture run now though and depending on your City trio, you could hit rotation soon with UCL starting soon. If you think that the tougher fixture run for Liverpool may negatively affect them and that City could see more rotation, then variety may well be the spice of life in this context!

How important is team value?

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

Team value is important, as it can allow you to afford better squads than your opponents, but again, you have to find the right balance between building team value and not wasting transfers and taking hits just to accrue price rises/avoid price drops.

I would say, always be wary of price changes, but only to ensure you aren’t priced out of moves you want to do – I wouldn’t be chasing price rises for the sake of solely building team value. Points over team value. 

FPL Nymfria: 

It’s important because we all know the heartache of missing out on an inform player by just 0.1, but I don’t think it’s the ‘be-all and end-all’ of a successful season. I certainly would not be getting in players just for a price rise, unless I was using a Wildcard where I could switch them out before the deadline.

Be mindful of the price changes for sure, but ultimately, it’s the points that help you climb the ranks, not your team value.

Is Zaha worth keeping given that Mitrovic, Wilson and Ings are providing better value currently? 

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

If it’s a straight choice between Zaha and Mitrovic/Wilson, then it’s hard to argue in favour of Zaha. Both are outperforming him in returns and underlying stats by a long way, providing much better value currently.

You could maybe argue that the fixtures for Zaha are better than Mitrovics’, so maybe there’s a case there for Zaha to win that battle over the next 6/7 Gameweeks, but Wilson is much cheaper and has just as good fixtures, so it’s hard to justify owning Zaha over Wilson. I’d be looking to own both personally for this fixture run.

FPL Nymfria: 

I’m a Zaha owner and I’ve had to ask myself the same question. It’s tough to see Mitrovic and Wilson outscore him, but I think that just shows the quality of the cheaper priced forwards right now.

If we compare Kane to Zaha for instance, who is £5.5m more expensive, Kane has managed just one assist more. So when I put it into perspective, I believe 2 goals in 3 games isn’t bad for a £7mil forward, and I’ll wait to see a bit longer who emerges as the best, or if we should be looking to more than just one of the cheaper forwards as our front line.

Best £4.5m defensive asset? 

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

I’d say that both of the Wolves wing backs Doherty (£4.4m) and Jonny (£4.5m) provide good value. Doherty has registered the most goal attempts in the box of any £4.5m defender, and Jonny has created more chances (3) than any other £4.5m defender.

Additionally, both of them have got inside the penalty area more than any £4.5m defender, with Jonny getting 6 penalty area touches and Doherty getting 7.

FPL Nymfria: 

Slim picking this year so far. Given Cardiff’s tough run, and the fact Duffy faces Mitrovic up next, I’d probably say Schlupp for Palace. He doesn’t seem to fulfil a full 90 mins, but can get the odd attacking return, is playing OOP at the moment and does have favourable fixtures.

Given the differing fixtures coming up, Eriksen or Mané? 

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

The fixtures do change slightly, so you need to assess whether Liverpool can continue to score against the teams they’re coming up against;

  • V Spurs last season – 3 goals
  • V Chelsea last season – 1 goal
  • V Man City last season – 9 goals (inc UCL)

If we add in that Chelsea have changed manager to a more expansive manager that likes to play in a similar way to Spurs/City and Liverpool themselves (match ups that have seen goals in), then we can say that the potential for goals doesn’t diminish much.

Moreover, Eriksen is a playmaker, Mané is an inside forward – so given that one is mainly tasked with getting assists (3pts) and the other is tasked with getting goals (5pts), I’m firmly in the Mané camp.

FPL Nymfria: 

Mané for me personally. His xG seems to support this; he’s expected 1.78 goals to Eriksen’s 0.40. Of course, Eriksen’s run of games seem more appealing based on FDR, he faces only 1 of the top 6, compared to Mané’s 3.

Spurs do look as if they have found form however, but Moura seems to have curbed a lot of Eriksen’s attack so far this season, whereas Mané always seems to be a part of Liverpool’s free scoring attack, and, at least for now, I’d go form over fixtures.

Injury crises: Is taking a -4 to get 12 playing players worth it? 

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

If you’re confident that the rest of your 10 are 100% starters, I’d probably just do 1 transfer to replace Richarlison, unless you think a -4 to bring another player in could immediately benefit you, then re-assess after the international break.

FPL Nymfria: 

This depends on how long you will only have 10 players for, and if you are fully confident in those players as your Gameweek representation? I am probably not the best person to ask this question to, as I’m well known for my hit taking escapades. If done well, I believe they can aid you massively. When taking a hit, consider whether it will aid you in the medium-long term too, rather than just a short-term fix.

Time to move Aubameyang on? 

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

£11m spent on a forward that’s only had 5 penalty area touches so far, is extremely worrying. Aubameyang, whilst having a difficult start fixture wise, is not performing right now and the underlying stats and substitution on the weekend don’t exactly instil confidence for future returns, despite amazing fixtures coming.

If you’re going to spend premium on a forward, then it has to be Agüero. If you’ve already got him, then I’d look at working Kane in personally, but Hazard is an option that has the potential to explode, especially with the upcoming fixtures against Bournemouth and Cardiff.

With Aubameyang struggling to find the net, I can also see Lacazette coming in and Auba playing on the left, which I think limits his goal threat and therefore decreases his value. So for me, this hit looks good.

FPL Nymfria: 

I have decided, for my sins, to show Aubameyang one more week’s grace in my team. If he can’t deliver at Cardiff like he couldn’t with West Ham, then value per points will see me jump ship. If you’re not considering getting Richarlison back in the short-term, and you feel Hazard and Zaha can provide more points consistently in the long-term, then consider the hit.

Mané to Hazard for a hit? 

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Simon (FPL Connect): 

I definitely wouldn’t do it for a hit. Mané is in great form and Leicester v Liverpool usually has goals in it.

Beyond that, looking at it without a hit…

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Hazard left, Mané right 17/18 season (screenshot taken from FFScout Members section)

As you can see here, Mané managed the same attacking returns as Hazard in 5 less appearances (226 mins less playing playing time) for a cheaper price last year.

History (and my personal experience) tell us that Hazard blows hot and cold, so based on that and the fact Liverpool’s attack can break down the bigger teams, I’d stay with Mané even without the hit included. 

FPL Nymfria: 

I’m not sure I’d be taking a hit to make this move. If you have Salah, there is an argument to be made for having an in-form Chelsea asset in your team, as not to load all your eggs in one basket, as well as moving to better fixtures.

This is how they stack up so far this season: Hazard’s has had 1.3 shots per game, 1 goal and 2 assists resulting in 16 FPL points in just 133 minutes played. Mané in comparison, has had 2.3 shots per game, 2 goals and 1 assist for a total of 29 FPL points in more minutes played at 250.

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