FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 4

Welcome to our weekly series where we’re presenting the results of our FPL prediction tool to bring you the expected points returns of the players for the upcoming Gameweek 4, based on the bookies clean sheet and goal probabilities

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

This week the methodology didn’t change but we’ve started to develop our interface.

In the excel file you can find some new sheets named ‘Data from bookies’, ‘Data from FPL’, ‘Data from understat’, ‘Your team’ and ‘Blog team’.

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks (just the name of the sheet changed, it was called ‘All’ before).

Data from FPL

In the ‘Data from FPL’ sheet, you can find most important information about the players taken from the official FPL website, like prices, points and so on. Be mindful that the information/data was collated and put into the spreadsheet today, so price changes that occur after today will not be updated in our spreadsheet.

Data from Understat

In the ‘Data from understat’ sheet, you can find players xG and xA taken from the Understat website. In the future there will also be shots, key passes and xFPL measure. All this data is calculated and provided to us by @fplkernow – follow him on Twitter by clicking on the link for other fantastic FPL content and stats.

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Simon’s team

Below all this, you will also have more information about your players, like their total points or goals and assists (data from FPL site).

In the future there will also be xG, xA and xFPL of your players and some analytical comparisons (like comparing xFPL with your player’s actual score and so on). You can also use this sheet to see how your team will look and perform after the transfers that you might be planning, or simply to compare other players with yours.

FPL Connect team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

GW4 GK

Top 10 Defenders

GW4 DEF

Top 10 Midfielders

GW4 MID

Top 10 Forwards

GW4 FWD

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 4
Google sheets version >> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LZ3bA0mUoMKuNSNN5NAW1loSVB3xonIvL0eNPNJb9s/edit#gid=2124511912

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing it ourselves, but the spine of the team was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 3 score

So, we got 40 points in GW3, which was 10pts below average, and placed us just outside the top 200k after three Gameweeks.

Only a few players delivered for us, with Robertson, Mendy and Salah playing up to their potential. The rest of players blanked with Richarlison getting a red card.

Out transfers didn’t work out either, as King and Jota managed to score 11pts while our new players got 0pts in total.

Fortunately, this time we got our captain right, with Salah accumulating almost half of our points.

Gameweek 4 team

This week, once again, we have some of the top choices in each position.

Agüero is expected to get the most points this week, so he is our captain choice for the first time. Vice captain is Salah, who lost his armband down to a tougher fixture resulting in less expected points.

This week, we have one free transfer and two players that we brought in last week, sitting on the bench. Richarlison’s red card forced him to be on the bench for the next two weeks however, we’ve decided to bank a transfer with the international break coming up, as our strength in depth is strong and we’d like the flexibility of 2 free transfers going into GW5.

Cairney also sits on the bench due to his possible injury and Ings makes up the 3rd outfield bench player. In normal circumstances, there would be a slight dilemma whether to start Jimenez or Ings – the former has a little more points expected but it is the latter who has better underlying stats in the last three games – but because we’re choosing based on the tool, we’re obligated to go with Jimenez.

According to our calculations, that team should get at least 63.66 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves, assists and bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed).

Let’s see if our tool-based team can bounce back in GW4.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on last GW line ups.

All data from FPL were taken from Fantasy Premier League API.

xG and xA data were taken from: understat.com

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >> https://twitter.com/Mikhatharahttps://twitter.com/Mikhathara

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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