FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 5

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 5 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

After the gift of the first two Gameweeks, GW3 and GW4 have felt like hard work.

In particular, GW4 was a tough one for the main captaincy candidates as the top 3 failed to impress.

Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 14.02.36.png

Agüero was backed by most FPL managers, with his incredible record against Newcastle looming large ahead of City’s game versus the Magpies, it seemed an easy decision for most. However, the typically brilliant Argentine and City weren’t at their best and they struggled to break through Rafa’s stubborn defence, with City only managing 2 goals and Agüero just returning the assist and 1 bonus.

Elsewhere, both Kane and Salah were unable to return in their games and were backed by big percentages.

Those that gambled on Mané and Hazard were the real winners this week as both managed double figure hauls in their respective games.

Incidentally, Romelu Lukaku’s stock is on the rise after he bagged a brace against Burnley and was backed by a decent percentage of FPL managers – if United begin to kick things into gear, we could well see him feature in the top 3 key captaincy candidates.

Agüero will likely take the drivers seat as the top captaincy candidate, but as usual, we’ll look into the stats of all the viable options, as well as providing you with some differential captaincy options to consider – let’s get into it!

Results of our poll 

Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 13.57.23

Sergio Agüero – 68% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats last 4 Gameweeks:

  • 33 penalty area touches
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Eden Hazard – 18% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats last 4 Gameweeks:

  • 25 penalty area touches
  • 10 total goal attempts.
  • 4 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 1 big chance.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Mohamed Salah – 11% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats last 4 Gameweeks:

  • 34 penalty area touches
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Differential captain options

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  1. Romelu Lukaku: United posted a solid 2-0 result against Burnley to suggest that they might be getting back on track. Lukaku bagged a brace and was generally very good. He had the joint most penalty area touches (12) of any forward that Gameweek and fired in 5 goal attempts, all of which were inside the area and 3 of which were big chances. Ahead of a nice run of fixtures, the Belgian could be about to hit some form and represents a decent differential captaincy punt this weekend against the Hornets.
  2. Raheem Sterling: With Leroy Sané seemingly out of favour, it seems as though Sterling is the main man from the wings now for Pep and despite only playing 3 matches so far, he’s ranked 2nd highest in the midfielders for penalty area touches (26) and has scored 2 brilliant goals. He has a slight back injury, so this of course needs to be monitored, but if he is cleared for the weekend, he could be a fantastic differential captaincy option for those who own the pacey winger against a leaky Fulham side.
  3. Marcos Alonso: This man has been outrageously good so far. He’s averaging 4 penalty area touches and 3 goal attempts a game in Sarri’s new Chelsea side. Defending doesn’t seem to be much on the agenda for Alonso and with Cardiff likely to come and park the bus, defending once again, won’t be high on his list of priorities. So, a clean sheet and attacking return is a decent bet here if you don’t like the other options or simply fancy a gamble.

The Captain Metric says… 

Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 14.47.03

Sergio Agüero.

With our new ‘metric score’ in place, Agüero hammers this one home with a comfortable win.

Breakdown:

  • Agüero has scored more points than either Salah or Hazard so far (player form).
  • Agüero’s Manchester City have created the most amount of big chances (14) in comparison to Liverpool and Chelsea (team form).
  • Agüero’s opponents (Fulham) have conceded the most amount of big chances (12) of ANY team in the first 4 Gameweeks.
  • Agüero has the best chance to score according to the bookies odds.
  • Salah has the highest expected goal involvement of the 3 candidates.
  • Hazard is over performing to the highest degree of the 3 candidates.

My view

Well, it wasn’t spectacular, but Sergio Agüero still outscored the other 2 main captaincy candidates last Gamweek and I’m backing him to do it again.

Embed from Getty Images

 

Whilst he wasn’t able to get on the scoresheet, I was actually very impressed with Agüero’s all round gameplay, aside from the miss at the end of course!

He was linking the play up brilliantly and created a lot of chances for others. He looked extremely sharp too, just a shame about the 1 on 1 – I was not expecting him to miss that.

Having said that, I can’t see Fulham being able to do the same job Rafa did and I think Fulham’s defence may afford Agüero plenty of opportunities and this time, I can’t see him missing – I’m envisaging a royal spanking this Saturday.

They’ve conceded the most big chances (12) of any side and have let in 9 goals in 4 so far.

So it’s a simple one this week for me, with Salah and Kane facing off against each other (incidentally a game I think does have goals in) and Hazard to face a likely stubborn Cardiff, it’s Agüero all the way for me.

In terms of going differential with your captain, I think the Spurs – Liverpool game has goals in, so Salah, Mané, Kane whilst hugely owned, won’t have huge backing this weekend because of Agüero’s plum home fixture and the fact that Spurs and Liverpool play against each other will put a lot off.

But my pick, if I had to choose a differential captain, would be renegade full back Marcos Alonso. The man is on fire and I can see a clean sheet and another attacking return for the wavy haired Spaniard.

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk
Odds obtained from williamhill.com

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