FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 5

Welcome to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 5 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

This week there weren’t any changes as we needed to improve the technical side of the tool for better performance.

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks – clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds.

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Example – Simon’s team

Blog team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers


Top 10 Defenders

GW5 DEF.png

Top 10 Midfielders


Top 10 Forwards

GW5 FWD.png

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 5
Google sheets version >> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Enz1BvUokhnSwucgn5UR9mrT432iuNPOcq5TFs9_RWM/edit#gid=900333203

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 4 score

So, this time we got 51 points, which was 7pts above average, and placed us around the 185k mark after four Gameweeks.

Once again our defence helped us to get a decent score with only AWB and Ryan not delivering. The captain choice was also good as Aguero got 4 points more than Salah. Unfortunately Bernardo played only a few minutes and brought just 1 point.

Out transfer didn’t work out again, as Walcott who replaced Richarlison, got injured before 60th minute and got only 1 point.

Fortunately, Mané was great and got us a valuable 10 points.

Gameweek 5 team

This week, we have some difficult choices. Our team is as it is above for now, but we haven’t done any transfers yet as we need more information from the pressers.

Agüero is expected to get the most points once again, so he gets the armband this week. Vice captain is Bernardo Silva whose low predicted score is due to 0 points for playing time (didn’t start the last game). However, in our opinion he will be in the starting 11 this time, which would give him around 5.3 expected points.

This week, we have one free transfer and a few possible injuries. So far AWB, Robertson and Cairney are on the bench due to their lowest points potential however, we still are not sure which players will be unable to start because of injuries.

What is more, so far our tool doesn’t include assists potential, which is a minus in case of Robertson thus, he has lower expected points than we would forecast. Cairney sits on the bench again due to his injury.

Once we know more, we can decide our moves, if any. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.

According to our calculations, that team should get at least 57.01 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves, assists and bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). Besides that, Bernardo and Shaw have two points less (no points for starting eleven) because Silva didn’t start in the last GW and Shaw got a nasty injury which can kept him sidelined – adding those points would bring our expected score up to 61 points.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on last GW line ups.

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >> https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst


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