FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 6

Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 6 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

This week we’ve fixed some technical issues that you’ve reported. In addition we are finaly working on our model to predict expected assists (partialy based on bookies odds).

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks – clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds.

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Example – Simon’s team

Blog team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

GW6 GK

Top 10 Defenders

GW6 DEF.png

Top 10 Midfielders

GW6 MID

Top 10 Forwards

GW6 FWD.png

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl-18-19-gameweek-6
Google sheets version >> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LxIu4iLEhumcCmmSLGJpgvCI6EcI3tTSiiggoXaUIDI/edit#gid=1427013201

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 5 score

So, this time we got 53 points, which was 6pts above average, and caused a fall to around 260k overall after five Gameweeks.

All the big teams players failed with only Agüero delivering. Fortunately, Ings, Jimenez and AWB helped us to get some more points and allowed to achieve an above average result.

The captain choice worked out well in the end between Salah and Agüero, as the latter scored 5 more points than Salah.

We didn’t make any transfers, which in hindsight, might have not been the best decision. However, you can never predict exactly what’s going to happen and as much as people fancied Hazard v Cardiff, I don’t think many, if any at all, expected him to return a 20 point haul.

Gameweek 6 team

This week, we have some difficult choices. Our team is as shown above for now, but we haven’t done any transfers yet as we need more information from the pressers.

Salah is expected to get the most points, so he will probably get the armband this week however, his form might is an issue. Vice captain is Agüero, who has been cleared of injury having played at the end of City’s Champions League game last night. Another notable option is Hazard, should we decide to bring him in.

This week, we have two free transfers and a few potentialy unavailable players – Mendy is a concern. So far, Jimenez, Ings and Cairney are on the bench due to their injuries, ineligibility and lowest points potential. However, we are still not sure which players will be unable to start because of injuries (like Mendy as mentioned before).

What is more, our tool doesn’t include assists potential, which is a minus eapecially in case of our defenders. However the model is being build already and should be available in the near future.

Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide our moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.

According to our calculations, that team should get at least 58.66 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves, assists and bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). Besides that, Bernardo, Mendy and Shaw have each two points less (no points for starting eleven) because of the rotation as well as possible current and past injuries – adding those points would bring our expected score up to almost 65 points.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups.

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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