FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 7

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 7 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

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Captaincy wise, GW6 didn’t yield big returns for many, even for those who had the bottle to go against the main 3 above.

Hazard captainers could consider themselves fairly lucky with Agüero coming off early in a game City romped home to a 5-0 win in and with Salah having a goal wrongly ruled out.

In the end, both Agüero and Salah scored the 1 goal and neither achieved any bonus points, resulting in minimal damage for those who opted to captain Hazard, who was unable to help his team break West Ham down.

Elsewhere, Kane was well backed at Brighton and his converted penalty awarded his owners with a decent 9 point return.

Both Mané and Lukaku were also backed well, but both blanked in their respective games.

Casting an eye toward this weekend, and we can probably assume this one will be a one horse race, but we’re here to provide you with all the available information nonetheless.

Results of our poll (in progress)

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Sergio Agüero – 78% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 42 penalty area touches
  • 28 total goal attempts.
  • 19 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 4 assists.

Harry Kane – 10% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 36 penalty area touches
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Mohamed Salah – 7% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 45 penalty area touches
  • 21 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Differential captain options

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  1. Richarlison – This guy is a very good player. After amassing 23pts in his first two games, Richarlison made a silly decision and got himself sent off in the third. He’s now back and after watching his performance against Arsenal on Sunday, it looks like nothing has changed. He was very threatening on the counter attack and had 3 goal attempts. I think he’ll pick up where he left off, starting with Fulham this weekend. For all Fulham’s positivity, it’s all at the expense of their defence. They’re a long way at the top for xGC (expected goals conceded) with a value of 14.50, the next worst is West Ham with a value of 11.10. This is because they’ve conceded the most amount of big chances (22) and the second most amount of goals (13). I simply can’t see Richarlison not taking advantage of that.
  2. Alexandre Lacazette – I went for Lacazette last week as my suggestion for a differential captain and after not letting me down and with another good fixture coming, I’m advocating him again as a good differential captain. Since Lacazette has started (GW4), he’s had more penalty area touches (23) than any other forward. In that time he has scored 2 and assisted 2. Watford have been very good so far this season, but Lacazette is in red hot form and loves to score at the Emirates!

The Captain Metric says… 

Screen Shot 2018-09-25 at 16.24.20

… Sergio Agüero. 

In the most comprehensive fashion to date, Agüero wins out by a long shot with our new ‘Metric Score’ in place.

Breakdown:

  • Player form – Agüero has scored more points than either Kane or Salah in the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Team form – Agüero’s Manchester City have created the most amount of big chances (23) in comparison to Liverpool and Spurs.
  • Fixture difficulty – Aguero’s opponents (Brighton) have conceded more big chances (13) than either of Kane or Salah’s opponents.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Agüero is the most likely to score of the three.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Salah has the highest expected goal involvement of the 3 candidates.
  • Actual goals/assists (xGI Delta) – Agüero is over performing to the highest degree of the 3 candidates.

My View

As all of the above suggests, it’s a pretty simple one this week.

It’s also just been announced that Agüero is not part of the travelling squad tonight that will face Oxford United in the Carabao Cup;

Screen Shot 2018-09-25 at 16.29.35.png

The only niggle with Agüero is him coming off early. With what’s now an important UCL match against Hoffenheim after Brighton and then a huge match against Liverpool to follow, Pep will want Agüero at his sharpest for both those games.

If City get an early lead against Brighton, you can perhaps see Agüero being taken off early again – it’s just whether you think they will, and if they do, how many do you think they’ll get, and how likely is Agüero to be a part of those goals?

I think the aim will be to kill the game early and for the main players to be hooked off early. Of course, it’s much easier said than done, but City are more than good enough to do it.

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I personally think it’s far too risky to not captain him this week with so many likely to give him the armband. So for me, it’s 100% Agüero. Let your other players make the difference up – there will be better opportunities for a differential captain.

If however you disagree with the above, then I think it has to be Richarlison this week if you want a differential captain.

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk
Odds obtained from williamhill.com

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One thought on “FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 7

Add yours

  1. Hey simon, good to see you again. Always a good read, but about the lacazette punt, don’t you think its a bit stretchy? I read that attempted only one shot last game week (his goal) and was also quiet-ish the week before. Don’t you think his immense performance vs Cardiff might be skewing the data? I’m not sure, i stand to be corrected tho. Also, seeing as you’re a Dilva owner as well do you have plans of selling him soon as he might miss the Brighton game, the rotation risk for that price is heavy init?

    Like

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