FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 7

Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 7 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

This week we’ve upgraded the technical side of the tool. In the same time the model for predicted assists gets better and better (partialy based on bookies odds).

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks – clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds.

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Example – Simon’s team

Blog team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

GW7 GK

Top 10 Defenders

GW7 DEF

Top 10 Midfielders

GW7 MID

Top 10 Forwards

GW7 FWD

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 7
Google sheets version >> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eXmzW1T3lIkhiJGoWGkJlH3JQnqPeOPorBKYJil9-Qw/edit#gid=1463630666

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 6 score

So, this time we got massive 70 points, which was 18pts above average, and caused a nice rise to around 140k overall after six Gameweeks – happy days!

Only Walcott, Mané, Shaw and Begovic were unable to deliver however, Walcott and Mané’s performances in the last few games are worrying.

Despite limited game time, we kept faith in Bernado Silva and were richly rewarded with a brilliant 14pt return. At his price, even with limited game time, Bernado has the ability to provide us with good value for money and we’ll be holding for the foreseeable future.

The captain choice was good again between Salah and Agüero, as the former outscored the latter by 2 points.

We had made two transfers; Alonso came in for Mendy, who gave us a nice 6 points from a clean sheet and Hojbjerg for Cairney, who was just to provide cover from the bench for our first team players. We opted against getting Hazard, but fortunately for us, it didn’t come back to bite us as West Ham were able to keep him at bay despite being one of the worst teams defensively so far.

Gameweek 7 team

This week, we have some difficult choices. Our team is as shown above for now, but we haven’t done any transfers yet as we are waiting for more information from the pressers.

Agüero is expected to get the most points, so he will get the armband this week despite the possibility of coming off early. Vice captain is Bernardo, who is expected to get the second highest amount of points according to the tool.

This week, we have only one free transfer and everyone is available – this might convince us to roll a transfer.

So far, Ings, Luiz and Hojbjerg are on the bench due to them having the lowest points potential however, we are still not sure which players will stay in the first team, as we might proceed with a transfer or decide that additional factors like assists potential make one of our bench players a better option than the our tool is currently predicting.

Not including assists potential limits the accuracy of our predictions, especially in case of our defenders (like AWB) however, the model for this is being built already and should be available in the near future.

Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide our moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.

According to our calculations, our team should get at least 57.39 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves, assists and bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). Besides that, some of our best players are playing against each other and have tough fixtures so we are not too worried about quite low expected score as it is only a one time situation.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups.

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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