Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 8 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool
Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/
This week there are no changes but our model for predicted assists should be ready just after the international break (partialy based on bookies odds).
Data from bookies
In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks – clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds.
‘Your team’ guide
In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.
Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.
Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.
Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.
Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).
In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).
Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.
Top 5 Goalkeepers
Top 10 Defenders
Top 10 Midfielders
Top 10 Forwards
Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature
Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.
Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 8
Google sheets version >> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S1ZuPCTZKj49NQO8gJSdSTAAE4E4zl-aX2_pU13rZ-8/edit#gid=1303335696
FPL Connect Team
Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.
We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.
Gameweek 7 score
So, this time we got only 55 points, which was just 4pts above average, and caused a fall to around 160k overall after seven Gameweeks.
This time, only a few of our players delivered however, they’ve got quite nice returns so it was enough to get an above average score.
We have been awarded for our faith in Walcott who got a decent 6 point return. Jimenez proved his worth and justified his starting place with an assist providing 5 points. Considering the poor result for United, getting 4pts out of one of their defenders seemed like a little victory in itself.
The captain choice was good again between Salah and Agüero, as the Argentinian outscored the Egyptian by 6 points.
We had made one transfer: Doherty came in for Luiz, who gave us an amazing 12 points from a clean sheet plus assist and bonus. Once again, our transfer proved successful and ultimately saved our Gameweek.
Unfortunately, we were still without the Belgian magician Hazard and this time it didn’t go so well, as he achieved 10 points while our premium midfielders got only 3 points in total.
Gameweek 8 team
This week, once again we have some difficult choices. Our team is as shown above for now and we have already done one transfer – Mané to Hazard. This transfer was made due to both players forms and fixtures and it had to be done early due to price changes and our limited funds.
Hazard is expected to get the most points of our team, so he will get the armband this week. Vice captain is Salah, who is expected to get the second highest amount of points despite playing Manchester City.
One interesting transfer to consider, is bringing Kane in. As we have now 0 free transfers, getting him would cost us four points however, Kane is expected to get at least 7.16 points. It is 2.66 points more than Agüero. So if we bring Kane in, then on average we should get 2.66 points more. Also we would captain him instead of Hazard and Kane is expected to get 1.36 points more than our Belgian. It makes an advantage of bringing Kane in equal to 4.02 points, so more than we would lose by getting him for Agüero!
Having said that, there are two main points we need to consider – are we able to bring him in straight for Agüero (do we have enough funds)? And what’s more important – will he get more points than Agüero in the Gameweeks that follow?
Getting Kane for example, in Ings’ place, would need to be funded by downgrading Salah. It still might be worth it, but we would have to get a midfielder that is expected to get at least around 8.7 points – due to the extra 2 transfers costing us -8. It would also have to be a midfielder priced at maximum of £6M.
That is not possible, so it only can be worth it to bring in Kane in place of Agüero. For this, we would still need to consider the potential of the Gameweeks after Cardiff to decide if we should bring the Englishman in.
So far, Jimenez, Ings and Hojbjerg are on the bench due to them having the lowest points potential however, we are still not sure which players will stay in the first team, as we might decide that additional factors like assists potential make one of our bench players a better option than our tool is currently predicting. It is a really close decision between AWB, Bernardo, Jimenez, Robertson and Walcott.
Not including assists potential limits the accuracy of our predictions, especially in case of our defenders (like AWB) however, the model for this is being built already and should be available in the near future.
Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide if we want to make any other moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.
According to our calculations, our team should get at least 53.86 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves, assists and bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). Besides that, some of our best players are playing against each other and have tough fixtures so once again we are not too worried about quite low expected score as it is only a short term situation.
All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com
Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups.
If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst