FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 9

Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 9 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

This week there are no changes. Our model for predicted assists is ready, needs just one more week of testing and it will probably be included in the analysis for the next gameweek.

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks – clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds.

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Example – Simon’s team

Blog team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

GW9 GK

Top 10 Defenders

GW9 DEF

Top 10 Midfielders

GW9 MID

Top 10 Forwards

GW9 FWD

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 9
Google sheets version >> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nkYqOCq8DNzgvsep9rIoJ9i-cwo824R4d6Zc92mnJFk/edit#gid=1752707915

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 8 score

So, this time we got a healthy score of 74 points, which was 24pts above average – this caused a rise to 93k overall after eight Gameweeks – we are finally where we wanted to be, which was inside the top 100k!

This time, only about half of our players delivered however, their returns were quite huge, so it was enough to send us 70k positions in the right direction.

Our defence saved our Gameweek once again with Alonso, Robertson, Doherty and Ryan getting clean sheets. A nice addition were Ryan’s and Doherty’s bonuses as well as a goal by Doherty. Besides that we are disappointed by Shaw who once again had one of the lowest results (this time it was 0 points).

Not much happened in the front besides Hazard’s points – the rest of midfielders and forwards got together less points than Ryan got alone. We have also had some nice points sitting on the bench – Jimenez got an assist and Begovic kept a clean sheet.

The captain choice was perfect, as Hazard got a massive 14 points while Agüero got only 1 point and Salah 3 points, who were the other considerations for the armband. Kane in and getting the armband was something else we considered, so it was huge that we didn’t, as we would have needed a hit to do it and he went on to score only 1 point in his game versus Cardiff.

We made just the one transfer: Hazard came in for Mané. This was a great decision especially considering the captain factor. Once again, our transfer proved successful and helped us to achieve better result than most players had.

Gameweek 9 team

This week, we don’t have too many difficult choices to make. Our team is as shown above for now and we haven’t done any transfers yet. We need to wait with that because there were some injuries during the international break and we would like to have full information from coaches first.

Agüero is expected to get the most points of our team, so he will be the one who gets our armband.

So far, AWB, Shaw and Hojbjerg are on the bench due to them having the lowest points potential however, we are still not sure which players will stay in the first team, as we might decide that our newly transfered player is good enough to get a place in the squad. We will probably transfer out Shaw looking at his last returns and coming fixtures. Having said that, if we get some important information about players like Salah then our transfer plan will definitely change.

Not including assists potential limits the accuracy of our predictions, especially in case of our defenders (like Robertson) however, the model for this is finally in the testing phase and should be available in the near future.

Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide if we want to make any other moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.

According to our calculations, our team should get at least 63.29 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves, assists and bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). That is a nice result however, we will try to make it even better with our well planned transfer.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups.

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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