FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 10

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 10 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Points haven’t been too difficult to come by so far this year, with the majority of the players in focus delivering, but Gameweek 9 served up the lowest average of the year (43) so far in what was a fairly difficult week all round, including the captaincy.

Screen Shot 2018-10-23 at 14.51.32

Only Agüero (33%) was able to produce any returns of the top 3 players captained, but even those who captained him may feel a little hard done by given the fact Agüero missed 2 extremely good chances – and they really were very easy chances!

Mohamed Salah scored Liverpool’s only goal in their 1-0 win at Huddersfield, so those who risked captaining him despite the yellow injury tag and vague Klopp presser got a decent reward, although once again, he didn’t manage to obtain any bonus points through missed chances and giving the ball away.

Elsewhere, there was decent backing (4.2%) for Alexandre Lacazette in yesterday evening’s match against The Foxes, but Aubameyang and Özil were the stars of the show and despite receiving 2 great chances, Lacazette was unable to return anything for his owners this time.

With a well-taken goal last week and another example of Cardiff’s defensive frailties on display, Salah will likely be the front-runner in what I’m expecting to be a two horse race between him and Hazard – who plays a Burnley side who just received a 5-0 spanking by City.

Let’s, once again, delve into the stats and see if we can break it all down!

Results of our poll (in progress)

Screen Shot 2018-10-23 at 16.23.47

Mohamed Salah – 55% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 41 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 big chance.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Eden Hazard – 31% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 35 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Sergio Agüero – 9% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 33 penalty area touches
  • 24 total goal attempts.
  • 21 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Differential captain options

Screen Shot 2018-10-23 at 15.36.56.png

  1. Joshua King – If you’re looking for a differential captain, look no further than any one of the Bournemouth strikers this coming week. They face Fulham, a side that simply don’t know what defending is. So far this season, they have let in the most goals (25) and conceded the most big chances (27) of any team. Bournemouth are one of the most prolific attacking teams so far this season, scoring 16 goals (ranked joint 4th highest) and creating 29 big chances (2nd behind only Man City). I’ve chosen King here because in the last 5 GWs, he’s looked the more threatening of the two up front, with more penalty area touches, goal attempts and big chances in that time over Wilson, but in truth, both should do well.
  2. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Aubameyang hasn’t actually started the last 2 Premier League games, but coming on from the bench has resulted in his highest returns so far this season in the form of 2 double-figure hauls totalling a huge 27pts in that time! Arsenal take time to warm up, but when they do, typically when Aubameyang is on the pitch with Lacazette and Özil, they really are scintillating going forward. Palace have been struggling recently and given Arsenal’s incredible run of form (won all of the last 10 games all comps), I expect Arsenal and Aubameyang to inflict more damage to Hodgson’s Palace.

The Captain Metric says… 

Screen Shot 2018-10-23 at 14.33.23

… Eden Hazard. 

Important Note: We have twigged the metric slightly, which has been updated in our explanation of the Captain Metric (link found at the beginning of the article).

We have taken out xGI Delta. We realised that this was an extension essentially of ‘Player Form’ and so we have decided to add in something a little different in the form of ‘Home/Away Conversion’. This basically gives us the % goal conversion rate for the player depending on whether they’re playing at home, or away (a shout out to Tom from Who Got The Assist who suggested this to us).

Breakdown:

  • Player form – Hazard has scored more points than either Agüero or Salah in the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Team form – Agüero’s Manchester City have created the most amount of big chances (22) in comparison to Liverpool and Chelsea.
  • Fixture difficulty – Hazard’s opponents (Burnley) have conceded more big chances (16) than either of Hazard or Salah’s opponents however, Cardiff have actually conceded the most amount of goals in this time (14).
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Mohamed Salah is the most likely to score by quite some distance.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Agüero has the highest expected goal involvement of the 3 candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Salah has the best goal conversion rate for this weekend’s fixtures with him scoring on 3 of the 4 occasions available at Anfield in comparison to Agüero and Hazard who have only scored 1 and 2 goals respectively away from home.

My view…

Whilst I’m still not convinced by him personally, Mo Salah’s numbers are still good and he’s actually scoring regularly at Anfield.

The likelihood of him returning (bookies odds), his conversion rate at Anfield and the fixture itself make for a powerful case despite his form being poor.

Having said that, him barely celebrating his goal versus Huddersfield tells me that he’s still not happy with himself and this can be interpreted in 1 of 2 different ways:

  1. It’s a positive that he’s so passionate about it and will give everything to hit form again.
  2. That pressure he’s putting on himself to try so hard and reach the standard he set last year is what’s having a negative effect on his overall game.

I’m personally inclined to lean towards number 2, but this is purely my own interpretation and I expect many will see it differently – this is simply my opinion on the matter.

Embed from Getty Images

 

That’s why I’m currently leaning towards not bringing him in – it’s a gut feeling – but if you already own, then I think you should captain Mohamed Salah.

For those who don’t own him, then I think it has to go to Eden Hazard. Burnley have been shipping shots inside the box and big chances at an alarming rate this season and against the main man in form and an unbeaten Chelsea side, I can’t see them stopping the Belgian wizard.

If you’re wanting a differential captain, then for me, it’s got to go to one of the Bournemouth strikers (King, Wilson) against the worst defence in the league!

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk
Odds obtained from williamhill.com

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

 

2 thoughts on “FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 10

Add yours

    1. I think if Hazard is rated as 50/50 after the presser and we don’t get any clear news on him either way AND you don’t have Salah, then, after his performance tonight, Mané is a good shout and I think I’ll be looking to bring him in for D.Silva myself as I can’t afford Salah without a hit and taking someone out that I don’t really want to lose, like Lacazette or Alonso.

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