FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 11

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 10 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Screen Shot 2018-10-30 at 10.44.40

Gameweek 10 was a plentiful source of points for those who played it simple with their captain and went with the home banker in Liverpool.

They absolutely dominated the game and both Salah and Mané, who were well backed, filled their boots with a 15 point haul each.

It was evenly split between Salah, Agüero and Hazard for the top 3 captains, but it was only Salah who managed to bring home the bacon, as Hazard wasn’t able to shake off his back problems for the game against Burnley, a game that Chelsea won 4-0 – and you’d have to think Eden would have helped himself to some points in that one!

The consistent, yet strangely in-explosive Agüero, also failed to provide returns despite having a couple of decent chances against Spurs yesterday evening.

Kane, Aubameyang and Lacazette were also well backed, but only the striker with the best mins per goal ratio at the moment in Aubameyang could provide any returns, as he notched from a Lacazette handball flick-on that wasn’t seen by the referee.

Both Agüero and Eden are at home this week with favourable opposition, but with Agüero’s form on the decline as well as him frustratingly being withdrawn early, and us in the dark currently with regard to Hazard’s availability, the Liverpool attackers might just be the way to go this week.

Let’s dive into the stats and break this thing down!

Results of our poll 

Screen Shot 2018-10-30 at 20.17.18.png

Sergio Agüero – 54% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 32 penalty area touches
  • 22 total goal attempts.
  • 20 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Eden Hazard – 32% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks (where he’s been involved in the match):

  • 35 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Mohamed Salah – 12% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 39 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Differential captain options

Embed from Getty Images

 

  1. Raheem Sterling – With him returning in 5 of his last 6 games where he’s played, accumulating 47pts in the process, he really should be turning the heads of more FPL managers. Perhaps because Agüero is the majority of people’s £11m City price point and we have Hazard + Salah/Mané as well, but with Kun’s form on the decline, perhaps we should be looking at him a little more seriously. He’s in great form and provided the one bit of excellence that broke the deadlock in last night’s match. He’s also had the most amount of penalty are touches (40) of any player in the last 5 GWs, and that’s with only 4 starts. City are largely unstoppable at home and I expect, should he start, Sterling to run the Saints backline ragged.
  2. Marko Arnautovic – It’s no secret amongst the FPL community that West Ham have an unbelievable set of fixtures from now until GW21, starting with Burnley this weekend. Coming off the back of two hammerings, Burnley will be vulnerable and have been so far all season, uncharacteristically letting in a vast amount of shots. They’ve conceded the most amount of big chances (15) of any team in the last 5 Gameweeks and although West Ham haven’t been at their best recently, if Marko is fit, I expect him, and them, to take advantage of Burnley’s vulnerable state.

The Captain Metric says…

Screen Shot 2018-10-30 at 10.30.37

… Eden Hazard. 

Important Note: We have twigged the metric slightly, which has been updated in our explanation of the Captain Metric (link found at the beginning of the article).

We have taken out xGI Delta. We realised that this was an extension essentially of ‘Player Form’ and so we have decided to add in something a little different in the form of ‘Home/Away Conversion’. This basically gives us the % goal conversion rate for the player depending on whether they’re playing at home, or away (a shout out to Tom from Who Got The Assist who suggested this to us).

Breakdown:

  • Player form – Eden Hazard has scored more points than either Agüero or Salah in the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Team form – Eden Hazard’s Chelsea have created the most amount of big chances (23) in the last 5 Gameweeks in comparison to Liverpool and Manchester City.
  • Fixture difficulty – Mohamed Salah’s opponents (Arsenal) have conceded more big chances (15) than either of Hazard or Agüero’s opponents.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Sergio Agüero is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Mohamed Salah has the highest expected goal involvement of the 3 candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Hazard has by far the best goal conversion rate for this weekend’s fixtures having scored 5 goals from his 14 attempts in his 5 appearances so far at the Bridge. Salah, by stark contrast, has only scored 1 goal from 21 attempts on the road and has the lowest goal conversion rate of any outfield midfielder away from home.

My view… (for now)

I’m gonna give my view as I see it now, but I may come back to this at the end of the week depending on the fitness news of Hazard.

Last week, was a prime example of when you should play the percentages. I had no Liverpool attacker, and with Hazard a doubt, most were flocking to the Liverpool midfield duo in Salah/Mané, so I knew the captaincy % between the two would be high.

I had a gut feeling that holding onto David Silva and rolling my transfer in preparation to get Salah was the right thing to do all week, so I can’t complain at myself too much, but had I simply played the numbers game, I’d have been on 85 instead of 60.

It feels a little similar this week. Whilst I do think Liverpool are going to be given every chance of scoring well, given the chances Arsenal are leaking and the strength of Liverpool’s attack, Agüero and Hazard (if declared fit) will have higher backing and both play weaker opposition and have the better potential to run riot.

People may be coming to the end of their tether with Agüero, and to be fair, it’s not without fair reason, but the fact he’s still getting so many chances and shots away despite the limited game time makes him such a difficult asset to drop, especially with his ownership at the level it currently is.

City are too good in general, but at home, they’re just crazy good and Southampton have been struggling all season. The underlying numbers are still very good for Agüero, he’s just not been as clinical recently, but if that improves, then a Huddersfield-like explosion could just be around the corner.

Embed from Getty Images

 

For me, right now, it’s Sergio Agüero, but if Hazard is declared fit before the deadline, I may check back in and re-assess, as Chelsea are flying too under Sarri and Hazard’s conversion rate at home is very high!

If you’re looking for a differential, then I would definitely go for Raheem Sterling.

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk
Odds obtained from williamhill.com

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

 

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