FPL Community Questions: Gameweek 13

I’ve teamed up with FPL Guidance from FPL Analysts, to answer the community’s hottest FPL questions with regard to the upcoming Gameweek 13

Welcome back to our ‘Community Questions’ series where I (Simon), usually have my say on the communities conundrums in an attempt to provide a different perspective, or perhaps some statistical information or insight some of you may not have thought about.

Each week, I’m going to set up a thread and ask the community what questions they have and I’ll pick the interesting ones, or the questions that apply to a wider majority, to feature on this article where myself and a guest/guests from the FPL Twitter community will join me in providing you with our own answers.

This week, I’m joined by FPL Guidance!

Screen Shot 2018-04-05 at 19.38.03

FPL Guidance has featured a few times on our blog and is a very popular and active account on Twitter, but just in case you haven’t yet heard of him…

Aside from being a very helpful and active account on Twitter, this year, he and another FPL account teamed up to form the Fantasy Football Analysts – a blog dedicated to providing their own insight and experience on all things fantasy football. He has a top finish of 2,304 in FPL and is currently ranked at 17.5k.

If you want to reach him on Twitter, you can do so here >> https://twitter.com/FPL_Guidance

Alternatively, you can reach him and sample the quality work he produces at Fantasy Football Analysts here >> https://fantasyfootballanalysts.wordpress.com

Bring in Kane for GW15? Who to take out for him?

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.11.53

Simon (FPL Connect): 

It’s been my plan for a while to switch from Agüero to Kane in GW15, given the unbelievably good run of Spurs fixtures and the fact that he is a 90 minute man, in comparison to Agüero who comes off early, and during the festive period, I’m predicting will be liable to rotation with Jesus available and fit.

But, this plan is wavering. Kane and Spurs haven’t convinced thus far, whereas Agüero and City on the contrary, have been typically brilliant and reliable. Plus, Agüero’s ownership is huge and if people aren’t moving away, then it could be a huge gamble to lose him.

At this current time, I wouldn’t be losing Agüero for him. The other route for those with 2 cheaper to mid-priced strikers are going to have to do it in stages and make 2 downgrades from midfield/defence or, if you have Lacazette/Vardy, then downgrading Mané would be another avenue.

I don’t think it’s worth shifting all your team around for Kane at this point. Kane and Spurs need to show us they’re at their best before we can even consider such a big investment.

FPL Guidance: 

When deciding whether to bring in Kane for the Christmas period, we have to compare his credentials as a captaincy candidate with the likes of Salah, Agüero, Sterling and Hazard.

Hazard’s performances this season both from a footballing and FPL perspective make him close to an essential own from Gameweek 17 ahead of home matches against Leicester, Southampton and Newcastle and trips to Brighton, Watford and Crystal Palace. And despite the inevitable occasional rotation at Manchester City, their unrelenting goalscoring form makes it tough to ignore both Agüero and Sterling. With Hazard and Agüero or Sterling fairly set in our teams, finding another £12.4m for a third premium asset is tricky. If those funds can be found, it is effectively a straight choice between Salah and Kane.

For goal threat, Salah’s 16 goal attempts (10 inside the box) over the last four Gameweeks and 48 goal attempts (33 in the box) over the season is better than Kane’s respective values of 14 (8) and 40 (31). Buying Kane is a twofold gamble: that his more favourable fixtures compared to Salah will yield greater numbers of shots and goals and that a third asset over £11.0m is even worth owning during a period that a strong bench is crucial.

With all this in mind, I do not currently believe Kane justifies investing £12.4m and disrupting the balance of your squad.

Having Felipe Anderson AND Arnautovic too much from West Ham?

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.12.01

Simon (FPL Connect): 

When it comes to double and triple ups on teams, I don’t look at it in that way. I look at each player in isolation. If F.Anderson is producing the goods regularly and you like the potential he provides, then you should buy him regardless of whether you already own Arnautovic or not.

He’s demonstrated that he can return points whilst Arnautovic is returning well too. You just have to assess whether they can continue doing it over the period you intend to own – that part is for you to decide.

FPL Guidance: 

Aside from Wilson and the slightly cheaper Jimenez, Arnautovic has next to no competition at his price, and given that Bournemouth face Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Man Utd between Gameweek 14 and 21 whilst Jimenez plays Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham over the same period, Arnautovic clearly has the edge amongst the budget forwards.

Whereas, Anderson has the competition of the in-form Martial, Sigurdsson, Bernardo Silva, Richarlison and Fraser as alternatives around his price point. Given that Arnautovic is also the talisman of the West Ham team, he is close to essential over this period. Whether you decide to double up and buy Anderson is a gamble on fixtures ahead of the other candidates.

At this stage, I would err on the side of caution with Anderson, given that he is behind at least three of the aforementioned five midfielders for chances created, shots and shots in the box over the last six gameweeks.

Stick or twist on Bournemouth assets? 

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.12.09

Simon (FPL Connect): 

There’s no doubt that the likes of Wilson and Fraser will regress given the difficult fixtures coming, having said that, it really depends how much they regress, because so far, they’ve been far outperforming what they should really return for assets of their price.

At £6.2m and £6.8m, it’s cheap enough that a regression to a return every now and then wouldn’t be so bad. It just depends on whether you think the available alternatives are good enough. I think I like the alternatives for Fraser, as you have Richarlison, Pererya, F.Anderson, Barkley, Martial, Sigurdsson all in a similar price bracket, whereas, with Wilson, there’s less choice.

So if you have two, I’d recommend potentially losing 1, but if you have just 1 and you’re not fully convinced on the alternatives, then I would probably stick.

FPL Guidance: 

In the short-term, I would certainly hold onto one Bournemouth player given the form of Fraser and Wilson. It is easy to see too far ahead at that run from Gameweek 13-20 but when you break down the next three fixtures, two of them look favourable.

Arsenal are hardly reliable for clean sheets and have failed to keep a single one on the road this season. Gameweek 14 looks like a 2 pointer as Bournemouth travel to Manchester City who last conceded a league goal from open play on 1st September. Following that though is a home match against Huddersfield. If Fraser and Wilson stop delivering over this period, especially those two home matches then it could well be time to sell come Gameweek 16.

Keep Salah? If no, which option is better? 

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.12.23

Simon (FPL Connect): 

I don’t own Salah and I love the balance it has given me in my team, but I think if I owned him, I certainly wouldn’t be getting rid of him at this stage. He finally looks to be picking up some good form and it was around this time last season that he started to go crazy with points!

FPL Guidance: 

In the short-term, I would hold onto Salah. He has done little wrong over the past four Gameweeks having accrued 33 points over that period and has a favourable run of Watford, Everton, Burnley and Bournemouth up next.

From Gameweek 17 though, it becomes more complicated given that Liverpool’s fixtures turn for the worse and Chelsea’s for the better. As mentioned in the first question, I would prioritise Hazard and Sterling or Agüero over that run of games and Kane could well put himself into the mix by then with a run of good performances.

Is Sterling really worth the extra outlay over D.Silva/Sané?

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.12.42

Simon (FPL Connect): 

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 17.43.03

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 17.43.13
D.Silva left, Sterling on the right (Screenshot taken from members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk)

If you’re going to captain Sterling, then I think he is worth the extra outlay based on his ability to provide double-figure returns, but otherwise, I’d say no based on the above when it comes to D.Silva, as his underlying numbers are very similar to Sterling’s and his value (6.7 PPM) is only just under Sterling’s (7.1 PPM) – you could use the extra money elsewhere to good effect.

I wouldn’t go for Sané/Mahrez over Sterling due to their gametime being significantly less than Sterling and David Silva’s.

FPL Guidance: 

As mentioned earlier, the appeal of Sterling and Agüero as reliable captain options (for points and starts) in a team that scores so many goals makes it risky to ignore both. Given that you are planning to offload Agüero for Kane, I would certainly look at owning Sterling sooner rather than later.

Should we start to consider Shaqiri a little more seriously given recent performances?

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.12.51

Simon (FPL Connect): 

He has done well and we all know he’s a good player, but risking £7.0m on a player that isn’t guaranteed starts seems a waste to me when there are plenty of good players in this price bracket. Not only that, but Liverpool don’t seem to be as free-scoring as last season, so there’s a smaller % of goals for the players to be a part of. So with this in mind, no, I wouldn’t recommend Shaqiri unless he establishes himself as a first team regular.

FPL Guidance: 

If Liverpool were blowing teams away like they were last season, a punt on owning a £7.0m player who isn’t guaranteed a starting spot would certainly be an option. However, we are talking about a team that is not even averaging two goals per league game this season.

When Liverpool inevitably click and if Shaqiri managed something like two starts and one sub appearance every four gameweeks, he would become a consideration but until that happens, I would stick with the likes of Richarlison, Sigurdsson and Martial in that price bracket.

Keane or Digne? 

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.13.02

Simon (FPL Connect): 

Given the greater goal threat that Michael Keane possesses over Digne (16 shots inside the box to Digne’s 1), and that you get an extra 3pts for a goal over an assist AND that he’s only £0.1 more expensive than Digne, I’d choose Keane here.

Digne only has 1 attacking return so far vs Keane’s 3, so the likelihood of an attacking return is greater with Keane and the points potential with Keane is higher.

FPL Guidance: 

This is a classic case of goal threat vs assist potential. Amongst defenders, Keane is joint third for goal attempts in the last six gameweeks and by virtue of all eight of those coming in the box, is second for shots in the box behind Balbuena over that period.

Over the season, Keane ranks third and first for those two indicators. Whereas, Digne has created the most chances amongst defenders over the last six gameweeks with 12 and the second most over the season with 20 (behind Holebas on 21). I would opt for Keane given that every goal he manages is worth as much as two Digne assists.

Is an Everton double-up too much?

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.13.12

Simon (FPL Connect): 

Again, like the West Ham question, I look at each player in isolation. If Digne is producing the best value for his price and you believe he has the best potential for a defender in that price bracket, then it shouldn’t matter what Richarlison is doing.

FPL Guidance: 

As mentioned in the West Ham question, I am not averse to double-ups as long as the players concerned offer more than those at their price. In Question 5 and 8, I touched on Richarlison and Digne both impressing in the underlying stats and therefore I would say that owning both is viable but just be weary of doing so ahead of their next five fixtures, which include trips to Liverpool and Man City.

Which Man City attacking asset should we go for over the busy upcoming Christmas schedule? 

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.13.19

Simon (FPL Connect): 

For me, it has to be one of the Silva’s. Bernardo is proving the better value, but David Silva’s underlying numbers are fantastic, with him having more goal attempts, more penalty area touches and more chances created than Bernado, but Bernado has played every game to date whereas David has missed a few and he is £1.1m cheaper.

Both Mahrez and Sané have missed out quite a lot so I wouldn’t be keen on paying their price considering they’ve missed out the most out of the attacking options.

FPL Guidance: 

This is a very tough one to call. Whilst Sané was key to providing City’s width down the left in Mendy’s absence last season, in Mahrez they now have another left-footed attacking option that could play that role from time to time.

Mahrez is of course more comfortable cutting in from the right but that role is likely to be taken by Raheem Sterling most of the time given his form over the last 12 months. De Bruyne is set for an imminent return to the fold following injury, whilst Gündogan provides further competition in central midfield having returned from injury with a goal in the Manchester Derby.

Rotation is to be expected and therefore I would pick one and stick with them for a period of five or six gameweeks. If I had to pick one, it would be David Silva, as only Eden Hazard has created more chances and only Mohamed Salah and Callum Paterson have had more shots in the box amongst midfielders over the last six Gameweeks.

What to do with Vardy? 

Screenshot 2018-11-21 at 15.13.30

Simon (FPL Connect): 

I think if you haven’t got Arnautovic, then I would be downgrading Vardy to Arnautovic for sure. Aside from that, I would probably leave it for the next 3 and then you have a decent price point to move to Kane. Where most would have to generate £6m ish for Kane, you’d only have to generate £3.4m.

FPL Guidance: 

Vardy is simply too expensive to be a consideration for me given that you can get a route into the Man City midfield for less money. His expected goals of 2.01 over the last four Gameweeks suggest that he has been unfortunate not to score in recent weeks, but even if he does return to form, I would consider £9.0m too much for a player that will never be a captaincy consideration.

Food_for_thought_visual_identity-800x400

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: