FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 13

Prediction Tool article is back! Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 13 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool

For the last two Gameweeks the article was not published on the blog due to Simon being away on holiday, but the tool was prepared and published on my Twitter account >>(https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst) if you can’t find the Prediction Tool article on the blog, I will always post Prediction Tool Google sheets links, top players tables and Prediction Tool Team updates there!

Methodology

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

Predicted assists were added to our tool before gw10 to give a greater all-round feel and more accurate reflection to our predictions and calculations. You can find a simplified description of our expected assists calculation methodology here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/10/25/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-10/

We also have some ideas for improving our models even further but it requires some more time and resources which we don’t have access to yet. However, we believe that our current model gives viable results, whilst keeping it fairly simple at the same time.

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks, like clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds, as well as our new feature – expected points for assists based on our new model

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Example – Simon’s team

Blog team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect blog team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

GW13 GK

Top 10 Defenders

GW13 DEF

Top 10 Midfielders

GW13 MID

Top 10 Forwards

GW13 FWD
Disclaimer: Vietto isn’t a regular with Fulham, but this is his expected calculated score if he were to start the game

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 13
Google sheets version >> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17JXQGEuYIXcTu6Iui9mguqcDC_rvhOwHl2gjFrFv3-4/edit#gid=1347089245

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 12 score

So, our score was quite high this time and it was enough to give us a sizeable increase in overall rank, moving back to 58k overall after twelve Gameweeks.

Once again, only about half of our players delivered however, their returns were quite high – we’ve had three players with a score above 10!

Our defence provided us 25 points with Robertson and Alonso getting clean sheets, as well as bonuses. Our Liverpool defender also got us an assist. Besides that, AWB on the bench got only two points (as per usual).

In the front, we’ve got some nice results as our midfield accumulated massive 30 points thanks to Bernardo’s 10 and Salah’s doubled 8 points, while our front two gave us 13 points with both Jiménez and Agüero returning more than just two points for playing time.

The captain choice was good, as Salah got us another goal and achieved higher score than other popular captain picks.

Gameweek 13 team

This week, we don’t have too many difficult choices to make. Our team is as shown above for now and we haven’t done any transfers yet, but we have only 1 free transfers available after the International break. We need to wait with regard to transfers though, as Doherty and Bilva got injured during the break and this might keep him out this weekend, so we would like to have full information from coaches first to decide about our potential transfers.

Salah is expected to get the most points of our team, so he will be the one who gets our armband. Giving him the armband is even more convincing now given his recent form for Liverpool and Egypt.

So far, Hojbjerg, Success and AWB are on the bench due to them having the lowest points potential however, we are still not sure which players will stay in the first team, as we might decide that our newly transfered player is good enough to get a place in the squad.

We will maybe transfer out Barkley looking at the fact his starting spot might not be sure, plus this week he has a really tough fixture. We will also probably keep Doherty and Bilva even if they are ruled out this weekend, as the potential injuries doesn’t sound serious given that they were announced when they were on International duties.

Our assists model is finally done and included in the calculation, so our predictions should be even more precise. This makes players like Robertson or Doherty to be higher on the lists due to their assists potential.

Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide our moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.

According to our calculations, our team should get at least 66.02 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves or bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). This is a nice predicted score and we will try to make it even better with well planned transfers.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups (slightly adjusted for suspensions and injuries).

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >> https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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