FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 18

Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 18 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool

First, we would like to apologise for no Prediction Tool article last week. We’ve had some critical technical issues and were not able to get the tool ready. However, everything is fixed now and you can take advantage of using the tool once more!

Furthermore, we would like to address the accusations made by ‘Odds On FPL’. For those who don’t know who he/they are, he/they do a clean sheet and goal probability model for calculating expected returns in FPL on their website.

We thought this was a limited model, in that the calculations didn’t incorporate certain variables that are important, such as ‘two goals expected’, ‘hat-trick expected’ and we wanted to provide users with a more comprehensive model by including assists and bonus points into the calculations thus, our algorithm and the content we are providing in this context, is different.

‘Odds On FPL’ DO NOT own the idea or the intellectual property for using bookies odds to calculate expected points returns and as such any accusations made that we are ‘stealing’ their idea are completely false. The only part of our algorithm that is the same, is a common mathematical equation used to calculate expected outcome of an event which all outfits, such as bookmakers, use.

Methodology

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

Predicted assists were added to our tool before gameweek 10 to give a greater all-round feel and more accurate reflection to our predictions and calculations. You can find a simplified description of our expected assists calculation methodology here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/10/25/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-10/

We also have some ideas for improving our models even further but it requires some more time and resources which we don’t have access to yet. However, we believe that our current model gives viable results, whilst keeping it fairly simple at the same time.

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks, like clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds, as well as our new feature – expected points for assists based on our new model.

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Example – Simon’s team

Blog team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect blog team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

GW18 GK

Top 10 Defenders

GW18 DEF

Top 10 Midfielders

GW18 MID

Top 10 Forwards

GW18 FWD

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 18
Google sheets version >> Google sheets tool version

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 17 score

So, we have achieved a really nice score last gameweek – 70 points! That allowed us to move up in overall rank to 27k after seventeen gameweeks.

This time, 8 out of 11 of our players delivered, and some of their returns were really high – three players got at least 9 points.

Our defence this time provided us with 23 points, averaging almost 6 points per player. Trippier and Doherty got a clean sheet, while Fabiański got a clean sheet, save points and bonus points. Laporte was the only one to blank.

Up front, we’ve had some great results with only Bernardo Silva and Wilson not delivering. However Wilson didn’t play a whole game due to his previous injury. Besides that, Kane was our worst player, as he got only a last minute assist, while Jimenez & Sterling both scored and Hazard scored and assisted. Shame that Bernardo didn’t deliver, as City played very well and won the game comfortably. What’s more, Kane was our captain so we were really happy about his last minute action.

Unfortunately, our transfers didn’t go so well as Bernardo got just two points and Schindler, who was fortunately on the bench, wasn’t able to keep a clean sheet.

Gameweek 18 team

This week, we don’t have any difficult choices to make. Our team is as shown above for now and we haven’t done any transfers yet, but we have only 1 free transfer. We will wait with regard to transfers though, as some players might be tired after playing in the cup so we’d like to have full information from the managers before acting.

Sterling is expected to achieve the highest score among our players so he will be the one who gets the armband. Eden Hazard will be our vice captain in case Sterling gets rotated once again.

So far, Doherty, Hojbjerg and AWB are on the bench due to them having the lowest points potential however, we are still not sure which players will stay in the first team, as we might decide that our newly transfered player is good enough to get a place in the squad.

All in all our team looks solid, despite some tough fixtures – Wolves play Liverpool this week. What’s more, all of our previously flagged players have played in the cup on Wednesday so we are not worried about injuries.

Our assists model is also included in the calculation, so our predictions should be even more precise. This enhances the appeal of players like Robertson or Doherty, as their assist potential is good for a defender.

Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide our moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.

According to our calculations, our team should get at least 67.17 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves or bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). This is a nice predicted score considering a few tough fixtures we have this gameweek.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups (slightly adjusted for suspensions and injuries).

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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