FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 19

Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 19 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool

First, Merry Christmas everyone! Hope you will enjoy this time of the year and that you will achieve some high FPL results on Boxing day!

Methodology

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

Predicted assists were added to our tool before gameweek 10 to give a greater all-round feel and more accurate reflection to our predictions and calculations. You can find a simplified description of our expected assists calculation methodology here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/10/25/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-10/

We also have some ideas for improving our models even further but it requires some more time and resources which we don’t have access to yet. However, we believe that our current model gives viable results, whilst keeping it fairly simple at the same time.

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks, like clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds, as well as our new feature – expected points for assists based on our new model.

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Example – Simon’s team

Blog team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect blog team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

GW19 GK.png

Top 10 Defenders

GW19 DEF

Top 10 Midfielders

GW19 MID

Top 10 Forwards

GW19 FWD

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 19
Google sheets version >> Google sheets tool version

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 18 score

So, this was a really bad week for us. We have achieved only 39 points while the average was 55 points. That caused a huge overall rank fall to 50k after eighteen gameweeks.

This time, only 3 out of 11 of our players delivered, but fortunately return of Kane was really high – he got an amazing 15 points.

Our defence this time provided us just 7 points, averaging less than 2 points per player. Trippier was the only one to get more than 2 points – he has got an assist however, a yellow card and 2 goals conceded have decreased his returns to just 3 points.

Up front, we’ve had only 2 players with offensive returns. Bernardo got an assist (5 points in total), while Kane scored two goals and assisted one which also allowed him to earn 2 bonus points making it 15 points in total. Unfortunately he wasn’t our captain – we have captained Sterling who earned just 2 points.

The rest of our squad also didn’t perform and that was the reason for our fall in overall rank. However, we are sure about the quality of our team and believe that we don’t need significant changes for gameweek 19.

We didn’t make any moves last week which might pay off in the next gameweek.

Gameweek 19 team

This week, we don’t have any difficult choices to make. Our team is as shown above for now and we haven’t done any transfers yet (we have 2 free transfers to use this week). We will wait with regards to transfers though, as some players might be tired from playing every few days so we’d like to have full information from the managers before acting.

Sterling is expected to achieve the highest score among our players, so he will be the one who gets the armband once again. Eden Hazard will be our vice captain in case Sterling gets rotated this time.

So far, Wilson, Schindler and Hojbjerg are on the bench due to them having the lowest points potential however, we are still not sure which players will stay in the first team, as we might decide that our newly transfered player is good enough to get a place in the squad.

All in all our team looks solid, despite the score we’ve got last week – quite easy fixtures for most of our players. We just hope that there won’t be too much of rotation due to heavy (in terms of fixtures) christmas period.

Our assists model is also included in the calculation, so our predictions should be even more precise. This enhances the appeal of players like Robertson or Doherty, as their assist potential is good for a defender.

Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide our moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.

According to our calculations, our team should get at least 66.90 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves or bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). This is a nice predicted score considering the result we have had last gameweek with the same team.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups (slightly adjusted for suspensions and injuries).

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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