FPL Prediction Tool: Gameweek 23

Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 23 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool

Methodology

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

Predicted assists were added to our tool before gameweek 10 to give a greater all-round feel and more accurate reflection to our predictions and calculations. You can find a simplified description of our expected assists calculation methodology here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/10/25/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-10/

We also have some ideas for improving our models even further but it requires some more time and resources which we don’t have access to yet. However, we believe that our current model gives viable results, whilst keeping it fairly simple at the same time.

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks, like clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds, as well as our new feature – expected points for assists based on our new model.

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Example – Simon’s team

Blog team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect blog team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

gw23 gk

Top 10 Defenders

gw23 def

Top 10 Midfielders

gw23 mid

Top 10 Forwards

gw23 fwd

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 23
Google sheets version >> Google sheets tool version

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 22 score

A good Gameweek for the prediction tool team. We have achieved 65 points while the average was just 49 points. That caused a rise in overall rank from 60k to 54k after 22 Gameweeks.

This time, just 4 out of 11 of our players didn’t deliver, with the players delivering around 10 points. Our captain choice could have been better though.

Our defence this time provided us more than half of our total score – 33 points, averaging 6.5 points per player which is amazing. Digne, TAA & Fabiański got clean sheets, while Digne got an assist too. Besides that, three of our defenders got bonus points!

Up front, we’ve had just 3 players with offensive returns. Salah got 11 points, while Pogba and Hazard got one assist each. We have captained Hazard, who was 6 points behind Salah this week. Let’s hope our captain choice will be better in the next GW.

The rest of our squad didn’t perform and we were slightly disappointed with Richarlison and Mitrovic.

We have made one transfer last week that didn’t make a difference – Anderson to Richarlison. Looking at Richarlison’s fixtures we expect him to get more returns than Anderson in the near future though.

Gameweek 23 team

This week, we don’t have any difficult choices to make. Our team is as shown above for now and we haven’t done any transfers yet (we have 1 free transfer to use this week). We will asses the future fixtures of our players and expected points before making any transfers.

Salah is expected to achieve the highest score among our players (followed by Pogba), so he will be the one who gets the armband. Pogba will be our vice captain.

So far, AWB, TAA and Son are on the bench due to AWB having the lowest points potential and absences (TAA is injured while Son went to Asia to play in the cup). However, we are still not sure which players will stay in the first team, as we might decide that our newly transfered player is good enough to get a place in the squad.

All in all our team looks solid however, we have some tough fixtures (Chelsea playing Arsenal, Fulham playing Spurs). We are not afraid of rotation too much this week though with the schedule largely going back to normal.

Our assists model is also included in the calculation, so our predictions should be even more precise. This enhances the appeal of players like Robertson or Doherty, as their assist potential is good for a defender.

Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide our moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.

According to our calculations, our team should get at least 69.81 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves or bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). This is a nice predicted score but we hope that our result will be even higher thanks to our transfers.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups (slightly adjusted for suspensions and injuries).

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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