FPL Captain Metric: Blank Gameweek 27

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Blank Gameweek 27 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

GW26 threw up a healthy 57pts average – this was largely down to the returns of highly captained assets Mohamed Salah and Paul Pogba, as well as the unexpected 6-0 drubbing of Chelsea by Manchester City, with Agüero and Sterling scoring very handsomely.

Paul Pogba put in another fantastic performance for United in their convincing 3-0 win at Craven Cottage, with the Frenchmen getting a brace and a subsequent 16pt haul for his owners, proving a masterstroke for those captaining him over Mohamed Salah.

A masterstroke, because Mohamed Salah only managed 1 goal and an 8pt return for his captainers in Liverpool’s 3-0 win over Bournemouth.

7.2% of live players were also handsomely rewarded after choosing to captain Sergio Agüero, as the little Argentine went on to net his second hat-trick in as many games.

BGW27 sees us without Chelsea, Manchester City, Everton and Brighton, so it’s left down to the Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal assets to battle it out for the captains armband in the main. Let’s see who wins out in this weeks metric!

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2019-02-19 at 18.37.43

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – 40% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 26penalty area touches
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Son Heung-Min – 36% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks (where he’s been available to play):

  • 30 penalty area touches
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Mohamed Salah – 18% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks (includes 2x sub appearances):

  • 46 penalty area touches
  • 18 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Captain Differentials: 

Embed from Getty Images

 

  1. Felipe Anderson – I know what you’re thinking, Anderson only has 1 assist in his last 7 appearances, but with Fulham up next, they can help him return to form. They have conceded 32 away goals so far this campaign, more than any other side. They’ve also conceded more big chances (45) than any other side away from home so far too. Anderson likes to play the lesser sides, with 7 of his 8 goals having come against sides in the bottom 8. Not only that, but he has 5 double-figure hauls to his name, making him a very decent differential captain option.
  2. Alexandre Lacazette – Only the super Agüero has more goals (8) than Lacazette in the forwards department over the last 6 GWs, where he has notched himself 4 goals. 3 of those 4 goals in the last 6 GWs have come at the Emirates too, where he will be playing again on Sunday against a Southampton side that have toughened up recently, but Arsenal do tend to get the job done well against sides in the bottom half at home. If you’re unable to afford Aubameyang but you fancy Arsenal to do the business against the Saints, then Lacazette could be the man to deliver you the goods.

The Captain Metric says… 

Screen Shot 2019-02-19 at 19.52.40

 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. 

Important Note: We have twigged the metric slightly once more. At the end of the metric, you’ll find two new relevant stats.

First one (Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

The second (Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown:

  • Player form – Son Heung-Min has scored more points than Aubameyang and Salah in the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Team form – Son Heung-Min’s Spurs have created the most amount of big chances (14) in the last 5 Gameweeks in comparison to Arsenal and Liverpool.
  • Fixture difficulty – Aubameyang’s opponents Southampton and Salah’s opponents Manchester United, have both conceded 9 big chances in comparison to Son’s opponents, Burnley, who have conceded 8 however, Southampton have conceded the most amount of goals (6) during this time.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang has the highest expected goal involvement of the 3 candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang has the best goal conversion rate for this weekends fixtures, after bagging 9 goals from 34 goal attempts at the Emirates.
  • Reliability % – Mohamed Salah is the most reliable asset, with him returning in 16 of his 26 matches, whilst Aubameyang has returned in 12 of his 25 matches. Son is displayed on the metric as the least reliable, but this is down to the fact that we take selection into account when we calculate reliability, as we have to be able to rely on a player’s minutes too when selecting them. If we do take out the games where he was available for selection but wasn’t selected and only choose the games he has played in, then his reliability figure shoots up to 60%.
  • Explosivity % – Mohamed Salah has returned the most amount of double-figure hauls with 7 in his 26 matches. Aubameyang has 5 in his 25 matches and Son has 5 in his 25 matches where he was available for selection. If we take out the games he didn’t play, then his figure becomes 25%.

My view 

I’m inclined to captain Aubameyang this weekend, but with Lacazette suspended after his red card v BATE last week, Aubameyang is going to have to play up front on Thursday night in the home tie against BATE.

There isn’t any reason that Lacazette and Aubameyang can’t both start on Sunday however, it just depends on how much energy Aubameyang has to exert on Thursday.

Son however, will have had a 10 day rest and will be at 100% for the trip to Turf Moor. Over the last 12 GWs where Son has started the game, he has scored 11 goals, notched 6 assists, produced 5 double figure hauls and has only blanked once, accumulating a massive 115pts in that time – so he’s been extremely reliable when starting and has been incredibly explosive.

Spurs have also been in fantastic form recently and they could be getting Kane back sooner than they thought, so everything is moving in the right direction for them.

Mohamed Salah and Liverpool face an extremely tough test in Bayern Munich tonight and this will be a mentally and physically draining contest. Then they face a confident Manchester United side at Old Trafford who have conceded the least amount of goals (3) of any team over the last 5 Gameweeks, so I don’t fancy Salah.

It’s between Son and Aubameyang, but I think I’d like to see the game against BATE on Thursday before committing either way. If Arsenal win that game comfortably, then I’ll likely go with Aubameyang, but if it ends up being a difficult game, then I might go with Son, as it’s conceivable with Lacazette getting a break from his suspension that he could lead the line on his own on Sunday if Aubameyang is tired.

Stats obtained from members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk
Odds obtained from williamhill.com

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