Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Blank Gameweek 31 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool
Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/
Predicted assists were added to our tool before gameweek 10 to give a greater all-round feel and more accurate reflection to our predictions and calculations. You can find a simplified description of our expected assists calculation methodology here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/10/25/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-10/
We also have some ideas for improving our models even further but it requires some more time and resources which we don’t have access to yet. However, we believe that our current model gives viable results, whilst keeping it fairly simple at the same time.
Data from bookies
In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks, like clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds, as well as our new feature – expected points for assists based on our new model.
‘Your team’ guide
In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.
Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.
Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.
Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.
Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).
In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect blog team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).
Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.
Top 5 Goalkeepers
Top 10 Defenders
Top 10 Midfielders
Top 10 Forwards
Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature
Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.
FPL Connect Team
Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.
We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.
Gameweek 30 score
Finally a great gameweek for the prediction tool team. We have achieved 73(-4) points while the average was just 48 points! This time the green arrow was really big as our OR went up from 103k to 73k after 30 Gameweeks.
This time, six of our players delivered. The captain choice wasn’t the best however other players did well enough so we are happy anyway.
Our defence provided us just 13 points from 5 players, averaging only 2.6 points per player, which wasn’t that good. However Boruc got 6 points and there weren’t many clean sheets that gameweek anyway. Up front, we’ve had some amazing returns – all players besides Anderson delivered. Unfortunately Sterling wasn’t our captain this time as he got an amazing score of 21 points. We’ve got great returns from Mane (14 points) too and some nice points from Salah, Maddison and Jimenez.
We have made two transfers last week bringing in Maddison and Azpi for Pogba and Bednarek. We’ve had to take a hit but it paid off as Maddison got 6 points and we will have one more player for the blank gameweek.
Gameweek 31 team
This week, our situation is really simple. Our team is as shown above for now and we haven’t done any transfers yet (we have 1 free transfer to use this week). We will get a player that plays in both blank gameweeks and has the highest expected score.
Salah is expected to achieve the highest score among our players (followed by Mane), so he will be the one who gets the armband once again. Even though Mane is in a great form and a totally viable captain option, he will just be our vice captain.
Our bench situation is really simple as we will have three players that won’t play during blanks. Besides that Fabiański has an easy fixture and is expected to get more points than Boruc so he will be the one that starts.
All in all our team looks really good and we own most of the top bgw players in each position.
Our assists model is also included in the calculation, so our predictions should be even more precise. This enhances the appeal of players like Robertson or Doherty, as their assist potential is good for a defender.
Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide our moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.
According to our calculations, our team should get at least 63.10 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves or bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). This is a good predicted score for a bgw and we hope that our result will be even higher thanks to our transfers.
All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com
Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups (slightly adjusted for suspensions and injuries).
If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst