FPL Captain Metric: Double Gameweek 34

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Double Gameweek 34 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

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Screenshot taken from @fantasyfootyfix

Blank Gameweek 33 was one to remember for a lot of us in the Twitter community, as scores of 70+ were fairly common – this was down to a successful captaincy for most.

Eden Hazard was the highest captained by live players (24%), and boy did he deliver the goods against the Hammers yesterday evening. He lit up Stamford Bridge with a dazzling performance that saw him scoring both goals in Chelsea’s 2-0 win, with the first being a fantastic display of balance, skill and composure, as he skipped beyond 3 West Ham defenders before slotting it past the helpless Fabianski, giving his backers a massive 32pts.

6.5% of managers trusted Jamie Vardy to get the job done against the already relegated Huddersfield and just like Hazard, he more than delivered the goods with 2 goals and 1 assist – a result that also saw him return 32pts for those that gave him the armband.

Elsewhere, 11% of managers must have missed the deadline, as they had the captaincy on Agüero from the previous DGW32, who didn’t have a fixture.

Roughly 40% of managers evenly backed the Liverpool attackers Mané and Salah. Though Mané actually performed much better on the night, Salah was the one who returned with an excellently taken goal that put Liverpool 2-1 up late in the game. However, the overall poor performance of Salah and the booking for his celebration, led to no bonus points, meaning a pretty lacklustre 6pt return.

Moving on to DGW34, it seems the Spurs assets, Son in particular, now that Kane is likely out for the rest of the season, are likely to dominate the captaincy, with the already relegated Huddersfield turning up at Spurs’ new stadium, but those looking for a differential might look toward Brighton, who have two very good fixtures in Bournemouth and Cardiff, both of which are at home.

Let’s delve into the stats and see what we can find out.

Results of our poll (in progress)

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 14.02.16

Son Heung-Min – 52% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 34 penalty area touches
  • 21 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sergio Agüero – 18% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 38 penalty area touches
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Jamie Vardy – 17% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 25 penalty area touches
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 big chances.
  • 6 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Captain Differentials

Embed from Getty Images

 

  1. Glenn Murray – Now Glenn Murray wouldn’t normally be a consideration, but given that he has a Double Gameweek at home against the out-of-form Bournemouth and Cardiff, I think he’s worth a shout for a differential captain. With just 3 goals in his previous 16 games, you might think, even with the double, that it’s foolish, but at the start of the season he did score 7 in his first 13 games, with 6 of them coming at home, so there’s encouragement in that respect. He’s also on penalties and has started 10 of his last 11 games in the Premier League. It would be a big gamble, but there is great potential with those two fixtures if he starts both.
  2. Christian Eriksen – If you don’t have Kane and think Son could be in risk of rotation, then Eriksen is a good option if you expect Spurs to destroy the Terriers. With a big 20pt haul in DGW32, Eriksen is turning heads and could be set for another big return in DGW34 with the already relegated Huddersfield visiting the new home of Spurs.

The Captain Metric says…

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 13.13.27

… Son Heung-Min. 

Important Note: We have included Sterling in the metric instead of Aubameyang down to the popularity of replies to our poll.

We have twigged the metric slightly once more. At the end of the metric, you’ll find two new relevant stats.

First one (Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

The second (Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown:

  • Player form – Jamie Vardy has scored more points than Agüero and Son in the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Team form – Agüero’s Man City have created the most amount of big chances (20) in the last 5 Gameweeks in comparison to Spurs.
  • Fixture difficulty – Son’s opponents Huddersfield, have conceded the most amount of big chances (13) in comparison to Agüero and Vardy’s opponents Crystal Palace and Newcastle respectively.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Son Heung-Min is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Jamie Vardy has the highest expected goal involvement of the 3 candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Son Heung-Min has the best goal conversion rate for this weekends fixtures, after bagging 8 goals from his 39 goal attempts at home.
  • Reliability % – Sergio Agüero is the most reliable asset, with him returning in 18 of his 27 matches where he’s been available to play, whilst Vardy has returned in 15 of his 29 matches. Son is the least reliable, with 13 returns in his 26 matches.
  • Explosivity % – Son Heung-Min has returned the most amount of double-figure hauls with 6. Agüero has returned 5 double-figure hauls, with Agüero’s coming in 27 matches and Vardy has just the 3 in 29 matches however, it’s worth noting that two of those were 16 pointers and they’ve come in the last 4 games.

My view 

Well, what a bombshell we had last night, with Harry Kane likely out for the rest of the season after Fabian Delph’s tackle on Kane’s ankle saw him limp off the field and leave the stadium on crutches.

This now means the task of goalscoring falls even harder on Son Heung-Min’s shoulders, with Llorente not exactly the most prolific at putting the ball in the net.

It’s difficult to interpret what this now means for Son in terms of his chances of starting at the weekend; on the one hand, you could argue he’s now nailed on with Kane out but on the other hand, Lucas Moura and Llorente could easily come in and get the job done against Huddersfield, which would keep Son fresh for the next two Man City games.

The problem is, IF he starts against Huddersfield, he could hit big, but it feels very risky with the second UCL game against City mid-week and with Spurs playing them again next weekend.

Sergio Agüero’s form and his team’s PL form is much better than that of Spurs and Son, and he did come off on 70 minutes in last night’s UCL tie, potentially suggesting that Pep is trying to keep him fresh to start all games.

Palace isn’t an easy game, but like Son, it’s conceivable that Agüero could miss out with Gabriel Jesus ready to come in.

Jamie Vardy, in contrast to both Agüero and Son, is nailed on and has a fairly decent fixture at home to the Magpies.

He’s also in excellent form, with 6 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 GWs however, 4 of those goals and 2 of those assists came against the shocking defence of Fulham and the already relegated Huddersfield.

Newcastle, in stark contrast to Huddersfield and Fulham, are much better defensively, only conceding 43 goals this campaign, 33 less than Fulham and 20 less than Huddersfield.

They are very solid away from home too, with only Spurs, Wolves, Liverpool, Everton and Man City conceding more goals than they have (22) on the road.

So whilst Vardy is nailed on to start, NEW isn’t exactly the best fixture.

With all this, it’s worth considering someone from Brighton, who aren’t out of trouble just yet and play Bournemouth and Cardiff at home this GW.

Both Glenn Murray and even Shane Duffy, considering the context of this GW now, are worth consideration.

Embed from Getty Images

 

Son Heung-Min is likely to be the highest backed by live managers and if we were sure he starts this weekend, he’d definitely be the best option as the metric suggests, but it is risky.

My recommendation, and likely what I will do myself, is to wait for the press conferences and see if we get any hints at all from Pochettino on what he might do now Kane is out (is Llorente coming in, Son up front etc) and then based on that final bit of information, make a decision on your captaincy.

Stats obtained from members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk
Odds obtained from williamhill.com

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