FPL Prediction Tool: Double Gameweek 34

Welcome again to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Double Gameweek 34 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool

Disclaimer

Our tool this week includes only one game for Brighton and Cardiff (the first one for each team) as the Bookies odds for the second game in DoubleGameweeks are never available in advance (unfortunately that is the main issue with Double Gameweeks for our tool).

Due to that, all Brighton & Cardiff players should be placed higher in the table (add 2 points for playing time and some points for clean sheets and goals + assists).

Methodology

Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of the season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/

Predicted assists were added to our tool before gameweek 10 to give a greater all-round feel and more accurate reflection to our predictions and calculations. You can find a simplified description of our expected assists calculation methodology here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/10/25/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-10/

We also have some ideas for improving our models even further but it requires some more time and resources which we don’t have access to yet. However, we believe that our current model gives viable results, whilst keeping it fairly simple at the same time.

Data from bookies

In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file in previous weeks, like clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds, as well as our latest feature – expected points for assists based on our own model.

‘Your team’ guide

In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.

Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 15.08.04

Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.

Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.

Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 14.32.10
Example – Simon’s team

Blog team

In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect blog team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).

Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.

Top 5 Goalkeepers

GK GW34

Top 10 Defenders

DEF GW34

Top 10 Midfielders

MID GW34

Top 10 Forwards

FWD GW34

Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature

Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.

Excel version >> fpl 18-19 gameweek 34
Google sheets version >> Google sheets tool version

FPL Connect Team

Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.

We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.

Gameweek 33 score

Another great gameweek for the prediction tool team. We have achieved 71 points while the average was just 36 points! This time the green arrow was not that high but our OR went up to 36k after 33 gameweeks.

This time, just 6 of our players delivered. The captain choice was perfect though plus it was a blank gameweek so having 11 players was already a huge advantage.

Our defence provided us 17 points from 4 players, averaging 4.25 points per player, which is a great score. Up front, we’ve had just a few returns as Maddison, Salah and Hazard were the only ones to get more than 5 points. Fortunately Eden was our captain this time and he got massive 16 points. In total Hazard got almost half of our teams score this week.

We have brought Richarlison last week and it didn’t make any difference as he got just 3 points. If we brought Vardy for a hit then we would be around 15 points better of though. It just shows how much of a difference can one decision make.

Double Gameweek 34 team

This week, we are using our wildcard. Our team is as shown above for now but we are almost sure that it will change before the gameweek starts. We are choosing players that are the best options for current week, the next double gameweek (GW35) as well as for the rest of the season (just 3 more gameweeks after those).

Our assists model is also included in the calculation, so our predictions should be even more precise. This enhances the appeal of players like Robertson or Doherty, as their assist potential is good for a defender.

Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we will finally decide our moves. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.

According to our calculations, the above team should get at least 69.93 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves or bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). It’s a great score but we are not bothered about it anyway as we are planning our team for more than just one gameweek.

All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com

Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups (slightly adjusted for suspensions and injuries).

If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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