FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 37

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 37 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here > https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Screen Shot 2019-05-02 at 17.10.31.png
Screenshot taken from @FantasyFootyFix 

GW36 was a very kind one for the majority, with a high average of 69, mainly down to Liverpool’s 5-0 win against the Terriers, with the popular assets crushing it.

Of course it was Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané that were the two players that were highly backed for the captaincy, but even Andrew Robertson (14pts) and Alexander-Arnold (10pts) returned double-figures with their assist and clean sheet each.

However, it was the Egyptian King that bagged the biggest haul, with 19pts from his 2 goals and 1 assist. Sadio Mané owners got a brace, but with him hitting the post for his hat-trick, he wasn’t able to return any bonus points as it went down as a ‘big chance missed’ – a really unfortunate ending and the difference between a 21 point return and a 13 point return.

Elsewhere, City attackers Agüero and Sterling were well backed to return away at Burnley, but it was the Argentine that scored the only goal, bagging all 3 bonus points and a decent 9 point return, but given the scores of the Liverpool attackers, it paled in comparison.

Moving on to the penultimate Gameweek of the season and the interest will be firmly around Man City attackers, given it’s their last home game of the season – where they typically score more goals and their attackers are subsequently more proficient – however, there are other names that might be also be worth considering.

Results of our poll 

Screen Shot 2019-05-02 at 17.42.19

Sergio Agüero – 57% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 31 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 0 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Raheem Sterling – 21% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 41 penalty area touches
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Mohamed Salah – 11% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks (where he’s been involved in the game):

  • 45 penalty area touches
  • 24 total goal attempts.
  • 17 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Sadio Mané – 11% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks (where he’s been involved in the game):

  • 31 penalty area touches
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Captain Differentials

Embed from Getty Images

 

Eden Hazard

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 45 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

 Paul Pogba

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 Gameweeks:

  • 15 penalty area touches
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

The Captain Metric says…

Screen Shot 2019-05-02 at 16.59.36

… Mohamed Salah (but this is based on our kicker being ‘Player form’).

Important Note: Eden Hazard was added to the metric instead of Mané down the popularity of comments on the Captain Poll thread and the fact Hazard’s form is currently better than Mané’s over the last 5 GWs.

We have twigged the metric slightly once more. At the end of the metric, you’ll find two new relevant stats.

First one (Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

The second (Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown:

  • Player form – Mohamed Salah has scored more points than Agüero, Mané and Sterling in the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Team form – Salah’s Liverpool have created the most amount of big chances (14) in the last 5 Gameweeks in comparison to Liverpool and Chelsea.
  • Fixture difficulty – Hazard’s opponents Watford, have conceded the most amount of big chances over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Sergio Agüero is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Eden Hazard has the highest expected goal involvement of the 4 candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Raheem Sterling has the best goal conversion rate for this weekends fixtures, after scoring 12 goals from his 40 goal attempts at home.
  • Reliability % – Sergio Agüero is the most reliable asset, with him returning in 20 of his 31 matches where he’s been available to play, whilst Sterling has returned in 19 of his 31 matches. Mohamed Salah is also very reliable, with him returning in 22 of his 36 games so far. Eden Hazard is surprisingly the least reliable of the lot, with him returning in 20 of his 35 games.
  • Explosivity % – Eden Hazard has returned the most amount of double-figure hauls with 10 so far. Sterling has 9 double-figure hauls whilst Salah has 8. Agüero has returned the least, with 5 double-figure hauls in his 31 games.

My view 

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The default play this week with regard to the captaincy, is definitely to go with one of Sergio Agüero or Raheem Sterling.

Given they have no European commitments and it is their last home game, where they have scored 56 in 18 games (an average of over 3 goals a game), also where Agüero (15 of 20) and Sterling (12 of 17) have scored the majority of their goals, it feels a no-brainer.

However, the Foxes have only conceded 6 big chances and 4 goals in the last 5 Gameweeks, so they’ve tightened up at the back relatively speaking.

Leicester are 4 points adrift of Wolves in 7th place (final potential Europa League spot) and with them playing Fulham at home this weekend, you have to feel they’ll secure that 7th spot this weekend but for this game at least, Leicester still have something to play for, so motivation levels should still be there.

I can’t see City running riot in this one, but I think a comfortable enough win is on the cards.

As for Liverpool, a fairly crushing UCL defeat to Barcelona, after putting in a decent performance, might just play on their minds when they head to Newcastle on the weekend. Even without that defeat, Newcastle is a tough place to go and Rafa won’t make it easy.

Sadio Mané’s form has dropped off a little whilst Mohamed Salah’s has really picked up –  although the sitter he missed in the Nou Camp might send him back the other way.

Despite the Metric, I’m not that keen on a captaincy in this one personally, as I can see Newcastle getting up for the game and stifling them and with that big defeat in the back of their minds, I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to see them potentially not being at their best.

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For me, Eden Hazard is a really interesting one this week. His last 6 scores at Stamford Bridge have been; 15, 1, 10, 14, 16, 7. Watford have also been shipping quite a lot of big chances recently, and if Hazard is on form and the Hornets afford him a few big chances, I can see him hauling again.

I thought Hazard would be starting tonight against Frankfurt, but turns out he’s on the bench, so I don’t think there are any worries now however, I do think the team as a whole might experience a bit of a drop in performance levels and as we’ve seen before, that can negatively affect Hazard’s FPL output.

As I said at the top, I think the safe and default pick is to go with one of the City attackers and bank on their imperious home form and their last game this season in front of their own fans, but if you are looking to make up some ground, then Eden Hazard represents a really good captain opportunity in my eyes, given he’s only owned by circa 15% in the top 100k.

Stats obtained from members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk
Odds obtained from williamhill.com

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

 

 

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