Need Help Picking Players For Gameweek 1 in FPL? Our Very Own ‘Player Value’ Stat Can Help
My ‘Player Value’ Stat Explained…
Picking players at the beginning of each season is always difficult and at times, can be a little stressful if we’re honest with ourselves.
A large majority of us will obsess over our teams, chopping and changing all the way to the gameweek 1 deadline (draft number 162 going in the bin)… One stat I feel that can help make those decisions easier, is ‘Player Value’ – but not as you know it.
Whilst it may make sense, I believe the ‘Player Value’ figure on the official website (points per million: calculated simply by taking the total points and dividing it by the price) doesn’t really totally represent ‘Player Value’ – it doesn’t take the varying prices paid by FPL managers over the course of a season, average games played or average points per game (PPG) of the players, into account.
It literally just tells you how many points that player will give you per every 1 million you spend, which to me, doesn’t incorporate all the facets that you need to determine whether a player is good value for money or not.
My ‘Player Value’ figure is calculated with these additional bits of information in mind;
Player Value = PPG divided by median price multiplied by 100
For example; PPM would calculate Robertson (31.8) and Alexander-Arnold (31.9) as being pretty much the same value, despite Alexander Arnold having been roughly around £1m cheaper all last season and playing fewer games than Robertson – Trent played 29 games in the PL whereas Robertson played 36. If Trent had played 36 games, he would have outscored Robertson at the PPG ratio he was averaging. So surely Trent should be better value than just 0.1 no?
Well with my formula, he is, and rightly so. PPG is a good indicator because it tells us how many points on average the player scores per game he actually plays. If you only look at total points (as PPM does), then it ignores the numbers of games played and in my mind, creates what seems to be unfair reflections of what should constitute ‘player value’.
So, Trents PPG was 6.77 and Robertson’s was 5.96. If we also include the median (or average) price paid over the course of the season – this accounts for the average price people paid over the season (again, PPM does not account for this) – 5.4 for Trent and 6.35 for Robbo then:
Trent: 6.77 divided by 5.4 multiplied by 100 = 125
Robertson: 5.96 divided by 6.35 multiplied by 100 = 94
For another reference, PPM has Neil Etheridge (33.5) as being better value than both Robertson and Trent despite them both comfortably outscoring him with less games for not too much higher a price. With my formula, he isn’t better value and again, I believe rightly so:
Neil Etheridge: 4.05 divided by 4.6 multiplied by 100 = 88.10
By any stretch of the imagination, I’m not pretending like this is an exact science and that my ‘Player Value’ figure is absolute – I just wanted to provide the fantasy football community with another indicator that may help make a difficult selection process a little easier. Points per million is a perfectly acceptable view of ‘Player Value’, but I feel my formula gives a more realistic and representative view of it.
So, I’ve gathered the various stats from the official Fantasy Premier League website of the top 10 goalkeepers, the top 15 defenders, top 20 midfielders and top 15 forwards from last season and calculated a ‘Player Value’ figure using the data I collated.
I’ve also added in the new player prices for the new season to see how the new prices will affect value, if they achieved the same points and stats as they did last year, as a comparative tool.
Hit the link below to see what it looks like and to download yourself a copy >> copy-of-player-value-comparison-fpl
Or if you’d prefer, here are the screenshot images:
Top 20 Midfielders
Top 15 Forwards
Top 10 GKs and top 15 DEFs from last year