Welcome back to our weekly series where we’ll be presenting you with the expected points of all the players ahead of Gameweek 1 using clean sheet and goal probabilities as calculated by the bookies, as well as our prediction tool
Hello! A new season of Fantasy Premier League is upon us and so we are back with our weekly series trying to help you pick your best starting eleven, captain and to make your transfer decisions easier!
If you are here for the first time, you should check out the “Methodology” section for more information. If you are a frequent visitor (thank you for that!) then you can head straight to the spreadsheet link. Good luck for the upcoming season!
Our tool was presented to you at the beginning of last season so you can find the methodology and explanations of values here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/15/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-2/
Predicted assists were added to our tool before gameweek 10 of 18/19 season to give a greater all-round feel and more accurate reflection to our predictions and calculations. You can find a simplified description of our expected assists calculation methodology here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/10/25/fpl-prediction-tool-gameweek-10/
We also have some ideas for improving our models even further but it requires some more time and resources which we don’t have access to yet. However, we believe that our current model gives viable results, whilst keeping it fairly simple at the same time.
Data from bookies
In the ‘Data from bookies’ sheet, you can find all data that was in our Excel file last season, like clean sheets probabilities, goals probabilities and predicted total points calculated from bookies odds, as well as our own feature – expected points for assists based on our model.
‘Your team’ guide
In the ‘Your team’ sheet, you can choose your team and see what your expected score for that week would be as calculated using odds from the bookies.
Step 1: put your whole team of 15 players into column B by using the drop down boxes provided.
Step 2: choose which players will be in your starting 11 in column D by manually entering ‘1’s into the row that corresponds with the player you want to start and put ‘0’s into the row corresponding with the players you’re going to bench.
Step 3: choose your captain in column E by manually entering a ‘1’ into the row corresponding with the player you want to captain, and ensure the rest display ‘0’s.
Finish: once you’ve done that, your total expected score should be displayed in column H (cells H2 and H3 show the same expected score as for some people H2 cell was showing an error).
In the last sheet, there is a table with predicted score and line-up of our FPL Connect blog team based on the prediction tool (you can read more about the team at the end of this article).
Please remember that this is a work in progress and we will continue to make improvements and add in more data and features as we go along.
Full spreadsheet link with all the players and the ‘Your Team’ feature
Download yourself a copy below and see how many points your team is expected to return based on clean sheet and goal probabilities from the bookies.
FPL Connect Prediction Tool Team
Our team was built basing on our expected points calculations. We wanted to incorporate an element of realism with this, as we know we’re unable to create a new team every week to take advantage of the results of our tool, so we are managing the team ourselves, but the spine of it was built based on the results of our predictor tool.
We will make transfers each week as normal and will place the captain armband on whichever attacker (MID or FWD) has the highest expected score, as per the results of our tool.
Gameweek 1 team
Below you can find our latest draft for the start of 19/20 season. It might still change, depending on the latest transfer news and our general long term plans. In the future all updates about the team will be published on my Twitter >> https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst
All updated information and reasons for picking each of those players will be provided before the deadline on my Twitter. If you have any questions – let us know in comments or in DM!
Our own assists model is also included in the calculation, so our predictions should be quite precise. This enhances the appeal of players like Robertson or TAA, as their assist potential is high for a defender.
Once we know more (from press conferences and other reliable sources) we can decide our final set up. I will provide an update on my Twitter account once we’ve decided.
According to our calculations, our team should get at least 70.25 points, but that’s not including some factors (like saves or bonus points, but also not including cards and some other factors like penalties saved/missed). This is a great predicted score for a first gw and we hope that our result will be even higher if we tinker a little more.
All the data used for calculations were taken from: oddschecker.com; if some odds were not provided, then data was taken from WilliamHill.com
Line-ups were mostly based on previous GWs line ups (slightly adjusted for suspensions and injuries); for the first GW they are based on preseason games and predicted line-ups.
If you want to get in touch with our data analyst or you have any further questions about this article or the tool, then please follow Piotr on Twitter here >>https://twitter.com/TheFPL_Analyst