FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 4

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 4 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

So last GW, we more or less nailed our Captain Metric article with us favouring Salah over the heavily backed Kane and Sterling (https://fplconnect.blog/2019/08/20/fpl-captain-metric-gameweek-3-2/) based on past history between the two fixtures in Liverpool – Arsenal and Bournemouth – Manchester City and Spurs’ lack of creative flair versus teams that sit deep.

In reality, both City and Liverpool scored the same amount of goals, but with Milner not on the pitch, Salah stepped up to expertly tuck away his penalty before absolutely destroying David Luiz with a lovely touch around the corner and then some blistering pace that took him into the Arsenal penalty area, where he cooly curled his left footed shot into the bottom corner for a brace.

It was as we expected for Spurs against Newcastle, even more so when the team sheet revealed that Eriksen would not be starting.

Newcastle sat deep and defended in numbers and Spurs, just didn’t have an answer for it. Kane dropped into the Eriksen role to try to help create, but to no avail as Spurs slumped to a poor 1-0 home defeat against the Magpies.

With City playing at home against Brighton for GW4, it’s hard to imagine anyone going anywhere other than the attackers from the Citizens, but we will explore it all the same to ensure it really is the right way to go!

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2019-08-27 at 17.01.00

Raheem Sterling – 70% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats:

  • 29 penalty area touches.
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sergio Aguero – 14% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats:

  • 13 penalty area touches
  • 8 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Mohamed Salah – 13% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats:

  • 24 penalty area touches
  • 10 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Differential captain options

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Kevin de Bruyne – City’s world class playmaker was in our differential captain options last GW and whilst he didn’t set the world alight with his 5 point return, he still got on the board to register another assist, taking his tally to 4 in 3 games. He was quality again, and should really have got on the scoresheet this time when Bernardo cut it back to him from the right and he put his curling right footed effort just wide of the post. The Seagulls are up next for the Citizens at the Etihad and whilst Brighton, under their new manager Potter, have been relatively solid in their opening 3 games, this will be a completely different and far more challenging test for them and one that will likely be too much.

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Teemu Pukki – I expect we might eventually get tired with the phrase ‘Pukki Party’ but for now, it’s in full swing and quite a lot of us are enjoying this particular party. Pukki has enjoyed the kind of start that’s seen him hit the heights of the highest scoring fantasy player currently, 1 ahead of Raheem, with 5 goals and 1 assist in his opening 3 games, and with a West Ham side up next with the highest ‘expected goals conceded’ value of all teams (7.54) in their first 3 games, I think we can expect the ‘Pukki Party’ to continue long into the East London night.

My view

I personally can’t see any reason to go anywhere other than Raheem Sterling this week.

Manchester City have scored the most goals (10), created the most amount of ‘big chances’ (14), have the best ‘minutes per chance’ ratio (4.6), the most amount of total attempts (63) and attempts inside the box (47) of any team in the league and Raheem Sterling in particular, is greatly benefiting.

Sterling also has a very strong home record, with 12 goals and 6 assists at the Etihad in his 16 games last season.

Screenshot 2019-08-27 at 12.03.06

Brighton have typically kept things tight against City when they’ve met, with only 1 match of their 5 meetings where they’ve won by a goal difference of 3 or more, but that was when they were managed by Chris Hughton, who did extremely well at keeping his team organised defensively.

Graham Potter’s style is different, and a little more open. Of course, when it comes to City at the Etihad, I expect them to sit deep and defend however, he’s coaching a more attacking philosophy than that of Hughton and I expect City to get slightly more joy.

Overall, City at home to Brighton is the standout fixture this weekend, with Liverpool playing a Burnley side full of confidence and Arsenal and Spurs both facing off against each other.

The only other player outside of Manchester City I would consider this weekend, is Teemu Pukki against a leaky Hammers defence. The boy is on fire and Norwich look fluid in attack – I expect goals in that game and wouldn’t be surprised to see Pukki net a couple in that one.

Captain Metric

Because our metric is based on previous Gameweek data, we don’t have access to all the stats we need to complete it.

We also want to base the stats for it on this season rather than last season to reflect the most relevant statistics, so we’ll be starting this section in GW5.

Stats obtained from fantasyfootballscout.co.uk




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