FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 6

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 6 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

For the second time in a row, Raheem Sterling blanked in a game he was backed to return well in, in a shock performance that shook the world’s football base from Daniel Farke’s depleted Norwich side.

They ran out 3-2 winners against the champions and deservedly so, taking their chances with composure when they came and defending resiliently, despite the clear and obvious (unlike VAR, I mean clear and obvious when I declare it) deficiencies in their squad.

Agüero was able to return for his backers, but could only muster 6pts, whilst Teemu Pukki, who’s a full £5m cheaper than Agüero, bagged 12pts after scoring himself, and laying it on a plate for Todd Cantwell to tap in.

Salah and Mané proved more reliable, as they returned 9 and 15pts respectively at home to Newcastle in Liverpool’s comfortable 3-1 win.

GW6 fixtures throw Man City at home to Watford who, despite getting a new manager, still look extremely vulnerable at the back, but with Raheem blanking in the last two and worries of Jesus coming in for Agüero on the weekend, should we be looking more toward the consistent and safe performers in Salah, Mané and Aubameyang?

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2019-09-18 at 11.08.13.png

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Raheem Sterling – 58% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats:

  • 49 penalty area touches.
  • 18 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sergio Agüero – 22% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats:

  • 31 penalty area touches
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 big chances.
  • 7 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – 14% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats:

  • 24 penalty area touches
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 1 assists.

Differential captain options

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Roberto Firmino – ‘Bobby’ Firmino has largely been going under the radar, operating in the shadow of the more explosive Mané and Salah however, at £9.5m, he’s currently providing better value than his attacking counterparts, with 35pts in his first 5 games from 2 goals and 4 assists. He’s been in inspired form, with his flicks and tricks, as well as firing in more goal attempts (19) than all other forwards aside from Sergio Agüero.

You might think this choice is slightly odd, given that they face Chelsea away next, but Chelsea, whilst they’ve been largely impressive in attack, have been equally unimpressive in defence, with Norwich (12) the only team to concede more goals than them in the first 5 games. He’s shown he can be consistent and that he can provide the double-figure haul and at 12.4% ownership, could be a really nice differential captain option this week.

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Tammy Abraham – In the same fixture, Tammy Abraham is another that could produce. Since Lampard has given him the role up front ahead of Giroud and Batshuayi, he’s been on fire, scoring 7 goals in his last 3 Premier League games. Tammy is averaging an impressive 3 shots per game, and despite this high goal attempt rate, is currently bossing one of the best goal conversion rates (46.7%) of any forward.

Chelsea look impressive in attack under Lampard, scoring 11 in their first 5 and with Liverpool not looking close to as solid in defence as they were last year, there’s no reason Tammy can’t add to his tally on the weekend at Stamford Bridge.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 09.53.16

… Sergio Agüero.

Important Note: At the end of the metric, you’ll find two new relevant stats.

First one (Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

The second (Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Sergio Agüero has scored more points than Sterling or Aubameyang in the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Team form – Agüero’s Man City have created the most amount of big chances (22) in the last 5 Gameweeks in comparison to Arsenal.
  • Fixture difficulty – Manchester City’s opponents Watford have conceded more big chances 11 than Arsenal’s opponents, Aston Villa, over the last 5 GWs.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Sergio Agüero is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Raheem Sterling has the highest expected goal involvement of the 3 candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Sergio Agüero has the best goal conversion rate for this weekends fixtures, after scoring 3 goals from his 8 goal attempts at home.
  • Reliability % – Sergio Agüero and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are the most reliable assets having returned in every game so far this year. Sterling has returned in 3 of his 5 games.
  • Explosivity % – Agüero is the most explosive asset of the 3 candidates having returned 2 double-figure hauls in his first 5 games, whereas both Sterling and Aubameyang have returned 1 double-figure haul in their first 5 games.

My view

This isn’t a week for a captain differential in my opinion, with Manchester City playing at home to a weak defensive Watford side, Liverpool playing an attacking Chelsea side conceding plenty of goals and Arsenal having a home game against Aston Villa.

After the shock defeat to Norwich last week, Pep will be furious with his side and will want to see a big reaction from them tonight in the Champions League and on the weekend against Watford.

Only Chelsea (11) and Norwich (12) have conceded more goals than Watford (10) and even with a new manager and a good result against Arsenal on the weekend, I don’t believe their defensive woes will turn any time soon.

Whilst Liverpool lost their game against Napoli last night without scoring, I still expect the game on the weekend to have goals in, so their front 3 are all credible candidates this weekend.

Arsenal’s fixture looks great on paper, but Aston Villa have actually been quite solid so far this year, only conceding 6 goals to date and 9 big chances, the same as Manchester City, but with Aubameyang in fine form, he remains a very good option this week, especially with Alexandre Lacazette injured.

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Overall however, going with a Man City attacker seems to be the best option considering team form, the fixture and the players form, and Sergio Agüero currently seems to be the best option, but I would be wary of tonight’s line-up from City and how many minutes the players get before deciding.

Stats obtained from https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

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