FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 7

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 7 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Many FPL managers went into GW6 with the armband on Raheem Sterling, only for him to be a victim of the infamous Pep roulette!

Those who captained Agüero and De Bruyne were licking their lips as both started the game, where City were expected to dominate, and boy did they do just that.

After just 18 minutes, the Citizens were 5-0 up and Agüero already had a goal and an assist, whilst De Bruyne left it late to get his returns that earned him a huge 17pts.

However, Pep decided not to use Sterling, meaning VCs came into effect, with a fair number of FPL managers opting to have KDB has their back up captain, to their absolute delight.

City attackers dominated the captain selections last week, but this week seems very split given the fixtures and isn’t so easy – so let’s see if we can help make the decision a little easier for you.

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2019-09-24 at 18.07.36.png

Mohamed Salah – 37% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats:

  • 46 penalty area touches.
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 8 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Kevin de Bruyne – 23% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats:

  • 24 penalty area touches
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 24 chances created (7 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 6 assists.

Sergio Agüero – 16% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats:

  • 44 penalty area touches
  • 24 total goal attempts.
  • 21 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 10 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 10 big chances.
  • 7 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Differential captain options

Embed from Getty Images

 

Son Heung-Min – It’s no surprise that Son is my main choice for a differential captain this weekend. Despite playing 1 less game than every player around him, Son ranks the joint third highest for goal attempts (16) by midfielders in the last 5 GWs and also ranks 4th highest for penalty area touches (33) in that same time period.

Whilst Saints were pretty poor against Bournemouth, I do expect them to be organised for this one and I don’t expect Hassenhutl to be naive enough to high press an excellent passing team like Spurs and with the pace they have on the break in Son and Lucas Moura however, Son is the main danger man for Spurs, and if anyone is going to find a way through, I expect it to be Son and if Saints do high press, then it could play into the South Korean’s hands perfectly.

Callum Wilson – Bournemouth face a side that have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 3 PL matches in West Ham however, I expect that clean sheet run to come to an end. Their 3 clean sheets came against sides that are struggling in attack this year, whereas Bournemouth are a little more expansive and have their main man in good form in Callum Wilson.

Wilson’s underlying numbers certainly don’t set the world alight, with only 6 goal attempts coming in the last 5 GWs however, 5 of them were big chances. Wilson has been Mr Consistent, returning in every game so far this year, and whilst West Ham have conceded the least goals in their last 5, they have conceded 14 big chances, the joint 2nd highest amount, so you could argue they’ve been rather fortunate not to have conceded more.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-09-24 at 18.01.01

… Sergio Agüero.

Important Note: 

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Sergio Agüero has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Agüero’s Man City have created the most amount of big chances (27) of any team.
  • Fixture difficulty – Manchester City’s opponents, Everton, and Kane’s opponents, Southampton, have conceded the most big chances (12) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Harry Kane is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Sergio Agüero has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Sadio Mané has the best goal conversion rate for this weekends fixtures, after scoring 2 goals from his 5 goal attempts away from home.
  • Reliability % – Sergio Agüero has the highest reliability % having returned in every game so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Tammy Abraham and Kevin De Bruyne are the most explosive assets so far this year, having both returned 3 double-figure hauls in their 6 matches.

My View

Even before I plugged all the numbers into the metric and dived into all the relevant research, I thought Agüero this week.

Man City are setting unprecedented attacking numbers this year in comparison to last and I can’t see Everton stopping it after shipping 4 goals at home to Sheffield United and Wolves – two sides that aren’t exactly that proficient in attack.

Kevin De Bruyne seems to be involved in every single attacking play City have and could easily haul again on the weekend.

Given that both these players have been rested in tonight’s EFL Cup tie and Raheem has started, I’d be even more inclined to choose one of these two over Sterling.

Saints, whilst poor last week, have been quite solid to date and should look to sit deep to limit space for Spurs, where we know they have struggled in recent times and having suffered defeat last time out to Leicester 2-1, aren’t flowing in attack like we know they can.

This doesn’t fill me with confidence when it comes to Kane and Son however, I should add that IF Hassenhutl goes to Spurs and tries to high press, then this could be a really good game for Kane and Son.

Liverpool face a battling and well organised Sheffield United side at Bramall Lane where the home fans will be loud and very much up for it – we saw how important the 12th man can be for newly promoted sides when Norwich beat City 3-2.

That being said, we know that Liverpool can batter anyone on their day and Salah has been very consistent so far, so both him and Mané are decent options.

Tammy Abraham is probably the third best bet behind Agüero and Kevin De Bruyne in my eyes. Even against Liverpool, he was having plenty of chances and the way Lampard sets up his team should result in plenty more goals for the English striker.

Embed from Getty Images

 

In my opinion, Agüero is the best option on paper, but we all know it doesn’t always work like that and given that there are so many options this week, there should be a fair split between captain choices – prime opportunity to go for something a little different.

There’s no huge risk in it, so my advice is to consult the above but ultimately, go with your gut and if it happens to be a differential captain, then this is a good week to do it.

Stats obtained from https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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