FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 10

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 10 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Gameweek 9 was, let’s be honest, a bit of a crap-fest FPL wise and certainly captain wise.

Two weeks, back to back, where the GW average has been under 40pts made for miserable viewing, as we watched our players give us nothing but mediocrity – perhaps not even that in some cases.

So, I’m not going to do my usual review of the captain performances from GW9, as it simply isn’t worthy of my time and why would I put myself, and you lovely readers, through that?

SO, moving swiftly on to hopefully greener pastures and a massively high GW10 average (FPL Gods chuckle to themselves).

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2019-10-23 at 11.08.24

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Raheem Sterling – 46% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 48 penalty area touches
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 12 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 1 assist.

Sergio Agüero – 28% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 31 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Aubameyang – 15% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 17 penalty area touches
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Sadio Mané – 12% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 24 penalty area touches.
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 10 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Kevin De Bruyne 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 23 penalty area touches.
  • 7 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 15 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 5 assists.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-10-23 at 13.42.59

… Sergio Agüero.

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed the idea of awarding points more equally/generously when two players are close on a particular relevant statistic. His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Kevin De Bruyne has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Agüero’s Man City have created the most amount of big chances (26) of any team.
  • Fixture difficulty – Arsenal’s opponents, Crystal Palace, have conceded the most big chances (13) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Sergio Agüero is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Sergio Agüero has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Sadio Mané has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 3 goals from his 10 attempts at Anfield.
  • Reliability % – Sergio Agüero and Aubameyang have the highest reliability % having both returned in 7 of their 9 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – De Bruyne and Sadio Mané are the most explosive of the candidates having hit 3 double-figure hauls in their 9 games.

My View

As you might have noticed, I didn’t include a differential captain section this time, and that’s pretty much because the other options are too strong this week for a differential.

Additionally, given that no premium option is really standing out currently, there should be quite a split between the options in GW10, so you could realistically have a sort of differential captain with one of the premiums.

Manchester City options, given they are at home against a Villa side that have conceded the second most amount of shots inside their box (100) so far, will likely dominate, with all 3 of Sterling, Agüero and De Bruyne likely to do well.

The metric identifies that Agüero is the strongest choice on paper and De Bruyne is just behind him, with Sterling coming bottom of the pile.

The metric however, cannot take into account Raheem’s excellent form outside of PL, with 3 goals and 2 assists in last night’s demolition of Atalanta in the Champions League, as well as his red hot form for England.

It also cannot take into account Pep’s roulette. But with Aguero, Sterling and KDB all being subject to being rested so far this year, it’s almost impossible to predict who plays.

So, unless he ever actually states one of them is going to be rested (and even then I wouldn’t trust the sneaky balding Catalonian), then you have to go with your opinion of who’s the best option and stick with it – there’s no point wasting energy second guessing Pep.

A lot are stating that KDB is the most reliable option, but Agüero’s form at the Etihad is extremely reliable. He scored 15 goals in 16 PL appearances there last season and has 4 in 4 at home so far this season.

Even KDB has had a benching, so from a potential random resting perspective, he isn’t exempt from that either. With Agüero having only just been benched for Jesus in the PL, I believe he won’t be rested again, but this is my own personal view – you have to take your own.

Manchester City are admittedly difficult to ignore when they play at home, against anyone, but especially against a bottom half of the table side, but it doesn’t mean we should ignore the other options.

Both Aubameyang and Mané (and even Salah if fit), are good options. Spurs really are struggling, and whilst they did put on a convincing performance in the UCL last night, winning 5-0 at home, they were playing the top side in Serbia, which isn’t that high a standard.

Mané hasn’t been that consistent this year, blanking in 5/9 of his games, but when he does return, it’s typically a double-figure haul, and it’s typically at Anfield, with 2/3 of them coming at the home of the Reds.

Embed from Getty Images

 

Having said that, when City play at home, there’s always the chance of a demolition, and it’s too difficult to ignore that, especially when Villa are conceding so many shots inside the box, something Man City specialise in; creating chances inside their opponents box.

For me, it’s Sergio Agüero all the way, but any of the MCI boys could hit big this week in my opinion.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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