FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 11

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 11 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2019-10-30 at 10.51.25.png

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Raheem Sterling – 61% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 50 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 15 chances created (6 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Kevin De Bruyne – 21% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 27 penalty area touches
  • 9 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 20 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 5 assists.

Sadio Mané – 10% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 25 penalty area touches.
  • 10 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 2 assists.

Mohamed Salah – 7% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 36 penalty area touches.
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Sergio Agüero 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 31 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Differential captain suggestions

Embed from Getty Images

 

Marcus Rashford – Man United are finally starting to pick a little bit of momentum after a good performance against European Champions Liverpool, and winning back to back games away from home against Partizan and Norwich. With Martial back in the side, United look a little more fluid and dangerous in their attack, evidenced by the vision and movement in their 3rd goal at Carrow Road.

Despite United’s overall poor form, Rashford has actually been ticking over nicely and sits on the same number of goal contributions as Mané, Salah, Raheem Sterling and Aubameyang with 8, after scoring 5 goals and notching 3 assists. Bournemouth have actually been quite solid recently, but United need to keep momentum going and Bournemouth traditionally don’t stay solid for too long.

Neil Maupay – A very outside the box shout, mainly based on the fixture, but given that Norwich are in town, and the Seagulls having put 6 goals combined past Spurs and Everton in their last 2 home games, this could be a high risk but potentially high reward combination if you don’t like the uncertainty of the Pep roulette.

Maupay has forced his way into the starting XI this year with sharp performances and has scored a respectable 4 goals from his 10 appearances so far. As I said, this one is mainly based on the fixture, and Norwich is THE fixture, with them conceding the same amount of big chances in their last 5 games (18) as Southampton, the side that conceded 9 goals to Leicester last GW.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-10-30 at 15.44.02

Kevin De Bruyne wins the metric

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Kevin De Bruyne has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Man City have created the most amount of big chances (27) over Liverpool.
  • Fixture difficulty – Man City’s opponents, Southampton, have conceded the most big chances (18) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Sergio Agüero is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Raheem Sterling has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Sadio Mané has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 2 goals from his 9 attempts away from home.
  • Reliability % – Sergio Agüero and KDB have the highest reliability % having both returned in 7 of their 10 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – De Bruyne and Sadio Mané are the most explosive of the candidates having hit 3 double-figure hauls in their 10 games.

My View

I think we all know and understand that what happened to Southampton when they played Leicester was a complete anomaly, having said that, if there was one team that could potentially get close to a 9-0, it’s Manchester City at the Etihad.

Yes, I know they played them in the EFL Cup and it was only 3-1, but it could have been more and on top of that, they played them without 3 of their top creative players, in De Bruyne, David Silva and Raheem Sterling – so if they scored 3 against them without those guys, it could easily be conceivable they put 4/5+ with them playing.

Embed from Getty Images

 

For me, I think we have to go with one of Sterling/KDB given they didn’t play in the EFL Cup match. Pep could troll, but we’re all used to this by now and it’s an opportunity that should be taken, as the ceiling for Raheem/KDB is very high.

Mané and Salah are always solid options, but given that Mané isn’t the most reliable player, with his returns tending to come in explosions every 2 games or so, and Salah having not managed to get a goal away from Anfield yet, I’m not sure either of these are the way to go this GW with Man City’s fixture and KDB and Sterling having been rested.

Because of the KDB and Sterling rest, I think you’ll see a lot of people backing them with the captain and seeing as both are quite highly owned, I think it’s too risky to back a differential captain this week, even if you’re trying to climb rank. Just remember, there are 28 GWs to go – there’s plenty of time to catch up and there will be better opportunities.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: