FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 12

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 12 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2019-11-06 at 15.24.28

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Jamie Vardy – 54% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 27 penalty area touches
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 2 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 7 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Tammy Abraham – 32% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 26 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Sadio Mané – 9% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 33 penalty area touches.
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 9 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 7 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Kevin De Bruyne – 4% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 22 penalty area touches
  • 9 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 1 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 5 assists.

Raul Jimenez

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 23 penalty area touches
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Differential captain suggestions

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Raul Jimenez – The Mexican forward is slowly working his way back into contention for being picked for our squads after being a stalwart in our teams last season. After Wolves getting into Europe last season, a lot of FPL managers decided not to opt for Jimenez and other Wolves assets for this season, given that their squad was quite small, and it was justified, as Jimenez and Wolves struggled initially to balance Europe with the PL campaign. But now, they’re starting to get to grips with it.

With 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 PL matches, Jimenez is starting to turn the heads again of FPL managers. They have really good fixtures coming and even though they aren’t in great form going into it, the good fixtures could mean they hit form, starting with a home game against Aston Villa. In a GW where City and Liverpool face off against each other, it might be a good time to give the armband to Jimenez.

Roberto Firmino – When Liverpool go up against City, it’s always difficult to settle on a captain, but I don’t think we should be shying away from considering a player in this fixture. There has been plenty of goals between the 2 sides over the years, and Roberto Firmino has historically done well in this fixture, with 5 goals and 5 assists in his last 11 competitive matches against them.

Both sides haven’t been as solid this year as last, but it’s Man City who are giving their opponents more big chances, with 10 conceded in the last 5 GWs in comparison to Liverpool’s 5. If they afford Liverpool these chances, then you have to think they will take them in front of their home fans, where they will be very much up for it!

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-11-06 at 15.21.12

Sadio Mané and Tammy Abraham win the metric

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Jamie Vardy has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Man City have created the most amount of big chances (22) over Liverpool.
  • Fixture difficulty – Wolves’ opponents, Aston Villa, have conceded the most big chances (14) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Tammy Abraham is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Sadio Mané has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Jamie Vardy has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 5 goals from his 12 attempts at the King Power stadium.
  • Reliability % – KDB has the highest reliability % having returned in 7 of his 11 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Abraham and Sadio Mané are the most explosive of the candidates having hit 4 double-figure hauls in their 11 games.

My View

This Gameweek is a tough one for the captain – no two ways about it.

For me, the metric has backed up my initial thoughts, which were Abraham or Mané however, I’m still not completely convinced on either.

Abraham has been brilliant away from home. Of his 9 goals and 2 assists so far, 7 of the goals and both assists have come away from Stamford Bridge, with just the brace at home to Sheffield United – he’s blanked in every other home game.

Add that to the fact that Palace can be organised defensively and it doesn’t fill me with the greatest confidence.

Sadio Mané was my other consideration before plugging the numbers into the metric and he’s the one that’s come joint top with Abraham – this was mainly on form and the fact that Man City don’t look that organised at the back without Laporte.

He seems to be the main man at the moment at the top for Liverpool and is the one receiving the most chances. It’s Salah that shoots in volume, Mané does not, but he gets into the better positions for the bigger and better chances.

For some reason, I didn’t really consider Jamie Vardy before writing this article, but he’s only 1 point behind both on the metric and he, and Leicester, are in electric form. He’s also top of our captain poll with over 2,000 votes.

They face Arsenal at home, who we know historically, aren’t the best at the back, and on top of that, Vardy has banged in 5 goals in his last 5 games against Arsenal, with the last two games at the King Power being 3-0 and 3-1 Leicester victories – so there’s very good reason to be considering Jamie Vardy this GW.

A lot of people commented on the captain poll with Raul Jimenez. Personally, I don’t think his ceiling is too high this GW, but if Wolves score, it’s typically something to do with him, so if you see Wolves beating Villa comfortably this GW, then Jimenez could be a good differential captain shout.

I have a feeling that the Leicester – Arsenal game could be quite open, as Arsenal will attack, and this will give Vardy plenty of space to work with, and with strong playmakers Tielemans and Maddison behind him, he should see chances.

Embed from Getty Images

 

I also think that Liverpool could do some damage against City, and with Mané being handed a rest last night in the Champions League, he’ll be fresh, and I feel could do well, so I’m between Mané and Vardy.

So, keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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