FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 13

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 13 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2019-11-20 at 14.47.48

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Jamie Vardy – 44% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 25 penalty area touches
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 10 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 6 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Sadio Mané – 25% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 29 penalty area touches
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 11 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Raheem Sterling – 23% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 75 penalty area touches.
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 14 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 10 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 1 assist.

Kevin De Bruyne – 8% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 25 penalty area touches.
  • 9 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 14 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 0 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 13 penalty area touches.
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chances)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 0 assists.

Mohamed Salah

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 27 penalty area touches
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Differential captain suggestion

Embed from Getty Images

 

Richarlison – With a goal and 2 assists in his last 4 GWs, Richarlison has picked up a bit of form ahead of what’s about to be a very tough fixture run however, before heading into a fixture run that includes playing Leicester, Liverpool, United, Chelsea and Arsenal all in a row, they play Norwich at home.

The festive period is going to be difficult for Everton to pick up points, so they’ll need to ensure they pick up 3 points against the Canaries before they begin that fixture run. Richarlison sits 3rd highest (35) for penalty area touches in the last 5 GWs and has had 13 goal attempts, with 10 coming inside the box meanwhile, Norwich, as we all know well, sit at the bottom for conceding big chances and goals. If you own him, this could be a fantastic differential captain this GW.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-11-20 at 14.27.44

Sadio Mané wins the metric

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

Additionally, because of the comments for Aubameyang and Salah, we decided to include them over KDB in the metric.

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Jamie Vardy has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Man City have created the most amount of big chances (21) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Arsenal’s opponents, Southampton, have conceded the most big chances (21) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Aubameyang is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Raheem Sterling has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Jame Vardy has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 5 goals from his 10 attempts away from home.
  • Reliability % – Aubameyang has the highest reliability % having returned in 8 of his 12 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Jamie Vardy and Sadio Mané are the most explosive of the candidates having hit 4 double-figure hauls in their 12 games.

My View 

(my personal take on things NOT to be taken as fact)

I fundamentally believe the Man City – Chelsea game is going to be very, VERY, open and attacking.

Chelsea have sured up somewhat in defence but I believe that’s been down to the opposition they’ve played and some familiarity with Frank’s new tactic and attacking philosophy however, I can see them going at City and that should leave space for City to exploit.

With this in mind, I really fancy Raheem Sterling to get back to form in this game. We can’t forget the dismantling of Chelsea by City last year (6-0) where Sterling and Agüero filled their boots, so we know it can happen.

Having said that, I do think Salah and Mané will get chances at Palace. With 16 big chances conceded in the last 5 GWs, Roy Hodgson’s men are not as solid as we think. If Palace afford Liverpool the same kind of chances, I expect the Liverpool attack to take advantage and Mané is the form player.

Jamie Vardy will also be a popular option given his and Leicester’s electric current form, but Brighton won’t be easy. They’ve only conceded 6 goals and 7 big chances in their 6 home games so far this year however, if Leicester do get 1/2, you’d place good money on Vardy getting at least 1 of them.

So I see it as this:

  • One or even two of the Man City assets could hit big – high ceiling but higher risk with Pep roulette and the game being a little more unpredictable
  • Salah/Mané low-medium ceiling and lower risk
  • Vardy low-medium ceiling and lower risk
Embed from Getty Images

 

If you’re not in the mood for a risk, just go with Mané or Vardy as we know they’ll start and if Leicester and Liverpool score, it’s a very good chance they’ll be a part of the goal/goals however, if you’re feeling you want to take a bit of a risk, then I think Raheem Sterling is your man.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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