FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 14

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 14 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2019-11-26 at 20.20.46.png

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Jamie Vardy – 38% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 34 penalty area touches
  • 18 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chance)
  • 10 big chances.
  • 7 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Sadio Mané – 38% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 29 penalty area touches
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 12 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Tammy Abraham – 13% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 21 penalty area touches.
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 12 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chance)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Son Heung Min – 11% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 24 penalty area touches.
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 10 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Mohamed Salah

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 37 penalty area touches.
  • 23 total goal attempts.
  • 17 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Kevin De Bruyne

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 30 penalty area touches
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 17 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 1 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 1 assist.

Differential captain suggestion

Embed from Getty Images

 

Christian Pulisic – Only Southampton have let in more goals (16) and more big chances (19) than West Ham in their last 5 GWs, with the Hammers letting in 12 goals and 18 big chances themselves. If you take away the 9-0 anomaly defeat to Leicester, then West Ham would top the charts for the worst defensive team over this period.

Add in the fact that Pulisic is on fire for Chelsea right now, with 5 goals in his last 4 starts coming from 13 shots inside the box (the most of any midfielder in the last 5 GWs), and we have a recipe for a high potential differential captain. His performances recently should have nailed down his spot in the starting 11 and if you’ve brought him in off the back of those performances and fancy a differential captain, why not double down against a bleak Hammers defence?

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-11-26 at 15.04.39

Jamie Vardy wins the metric

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

Additionally, because of the comments for De Bruyne, we decided to include him in the metric.

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Jamie Vardy has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Man City have created the most amount of big chances (20) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Mané and Abraham’s opponents, Brighton and West Ham, have conceded the most big chances (18) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Abraham is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Jamie Vardy has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Jamie Vardy also has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 6 goals from his 15 attempts at the King Power stadium.
  • Reliability % – Son Heung Min has the highest reliability % having returned in 8 of his 11 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Jamie Vardy is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 5 double-figure hauls in his 13 games.

My View 

(my personal take on things NOT to be taken as fact)

Last GW was painful. I predicted an open, attacking and likely high scoring game between City and Chelsea and the first half more or less followed my prediction, with 3 goals going in.

The second half however, was far more tactical and tight and slowed the game down drastically.

I thought Lampard would attack throughout and it would leave spaces for City to exploit and from the off, he did just that, but after going 2-1 down after making a good start, Frank changed things in the second half and slowed the pace down, as did Pep with his City side, retaining the ball longer before attacking.

I thought Raheem Sterling might benefit from this kind of game but I was wrong. The offside call at the end, whilst extremely unfortunate and slightly rage inducing, the truth was he didn’t get a sniff all game and looked isolated.

The metric last GW was spot on and if you played it safe and sensible with Mané or Vardy, you benefited and were smarter than me who went with Sterling!

This week follows a similar pattern with both of them scoring well again on the metric, with Vardy winning out this time and in truth, I see no reason to ignore these guys – they’re in such great form and for the immediate future, I can’t see it slowing down.

Having said that, I do think both Son and Chelsea attackers represent good alternatives this week for those who do want something different.

West Ham’s defence is truly poor right now and I do expect Chelsea to take advantage of that, so any of Pulisic, Abraham or Willian could score well this GW.

Mourinho’s introduction at Spurs has given them a much needed boost and in particular, to Son Heung Min who bagged a goal and an assist against West Ham.

With a struggling Bournemouth up next, I wouldn’t bet against Son firing in another double-figure haul against them to compound their current woes.

Embed from Getty Images

 

However, just owning Son should be enough of a differential, so I’d advise captaining Sadio Mané and playing it safe and sensible this week….

Cue the Son and Pulisic 15+ pointers!!

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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