FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 15

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 15 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2019-12-02 at 20.30.49.png

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Jamie Vardy – 81% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 41 penalty area touches
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 18 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 12 big chances.
  • 7 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Sadio Mané – 8% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 34 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 12 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – 6% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 21 penalty area touches.
  • 10 total goal attempts.
  • 7 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chance)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Kevin De Bruyne – 5% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 28 penalty area touches.
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 6 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 21 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Mohamed Salah

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 33 penalty area touches.
  • 21 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Raheem Sterling

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 71 penalty area touches
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 12 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Differential captain suggestion

Screenshot 2019-12-02 at 18.04.37.png

Dele Alli – Since Mourinho’s takeover, Alli has enjoyed a resurgence and all of a sudden, looks to be a tempting prospect in FPL finally. Mourinho has said he sees Alli as more of a forward than a playmaker and plays him as such, with Alli getting beyond Kane and even Son as often as possible in the last 2 games which has seen him net 2 and assist 1.

United away seems a difficult task and an odd one to back, but both Villa and Sheffield United have shown United’s defensive frailties and if they can trouble them, Spurs can definitely do that and I think Alli could get amongst the goals in this game. In the 2 games since Mourinho took over, he’s had 11 penalty area touches, 7 shots, 5 coming inside the box and 3 big chances. He passes the eye test, he has the form and the fixture is deceptively decent – all makes for a great differential captain choice.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-12-02 at 17.22.28

Jamie Vardy comprehensively wins the metric

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Jamie Vardy has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Leicester have created the most amount of big chances (23) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Aubameyang’s opponents, Brighton, have conceded the most big chances (16) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Jamie Vardy is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Jamie Vardy has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Jamie Vardy also has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 7 goals from his 19 attempts at the King Power stadium.
  • Reliability % – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has the highest reliability % having returned in 10 of his 14 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Jamie Vardy is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 5 double-figure hauls in his 14 games.

My View 

(my personal take on things NOT to be taken as fact)

It’s an easy one this week isn’t it? Surely?!

Jamie Vardy simply doesn’t want to stop, and a home game against Watford should surely see his attacking returns added upon.

Even if there’s some part of you that thinks, “he’s gotta blank at some point”, there’s just no point going against it this week, as SO many others will captain him given the other options available.

Everton were solid against Leicester for the most part and if they play like that again in the Merseyside derby, it won’t be easy for Liverpool who do seem to be struggling to create as much in attack, so both Mané and Salah are a little less desirable this GW.

Man City play Burnley away from home, and as we’ve seen so far this season, they’re not completely at it yet, and Burnley are a solid team at home, in fact, only Spurs have conceded less big chances (5) than Burnley (7) on their own patch.

Aubameyang could be the other interesting option if you own although, Brighton did perform quite well away at Liverpool, and we don’t know if Arsenal are going to perform better or worse under Freddie now that Emery has gone, so it’s a bit of a gamble, but we do know Aubameyang is a reliable and quite prolific striker in most circumstances and should still be a solid option.

The interesting choices for me are the Spurs boys.

United look like they are there for the taking defensively and with both sides conceding and scoring a fair bit recently, I can see that one being open and both sides getting some goals, making both Son and Alli interesting options.

Jamie Vardy is the man of the moment however and this GW, there’s simply no reason not to back him.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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