FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 16

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 16 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2019-12-05 at 19.12.54.png

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Sadio Mané – 41% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 34 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 12 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 3 assists.

Jamie Vardy – 36% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 37 penalty area touches
  • 17 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 10 big chances.
  • 5 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Mohamed Salah – 14% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 33 penalty area touches.
  • 21 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Heung-Min Son

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 28 penalty area touches.
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 10 chances created (6 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 4 assists.

Dele Alli

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 17 penalty area touches.
  • 10 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 8 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Differential captain suggestion

Embed from Getty Images

 

Tammy Abraham – Provided he’s not injured for this weekend, I think Tammy could be a fantastic differential shout. I watched Tammy leave the field and he walked off, and it wasn’t really that gingerly and with no grimace on his face. Similarly, at the end of the game, he was interviewed and seemed to walk around with no limp and seemed okay – sadly, the interviewer didn’t take the time to actually ask about his injury however, he seemed fine from what I could see.

So based on that, I think he will play this weekend and the sub was a precaution to a small knock. After notching a goal and assist against Villa, Tammy will be very much up for a visit to Goodison, with the hefty 5-2 demolition loss to Liverpool fresh in Everton’s minds. Tammy and Chelsea, are both more dangerous on the road, where Tammy has 7 goals and 2 assists in his 7 away appearances in comparison to 3 goals and 1 assist at home, and Chelsea have scored 19 away goals in comparison to just 11 at home. So this could be a great opportunity for a differential Tammy captain if cleared from his knock!

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-12-05 at 12.35.15

Jamie Vardy wins the metric

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Sadio Mané has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Leicester have created the most amount of big chances (18) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – All of the candidates’ opponents, Burnley, Bournemouth and Aston Villa have conceded 10 big chances in the last 5 GWs.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Jamie Vardy is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Jamie Vardy has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Dele Alli has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 3 goals from his 7 attempts at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium.
  • Reliability % – Heung-Min Son has the highest reliability % having returned in 9 of his 13 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Jamie Vardy and Sadio Mané are the most explosive of the candidates having both hit 5 double-figure hauls in their 15 games.

My View 

(my personal take on things NOT to be taken as fact)

I expressed on Twitter my frustration recently at how things have been going in the captain department for myself… not well.

Last week I went for Mané based on the fact (taking everything else into account as well, but with this particular stat being a kicker) that Brighton had actually conceded the second most amount of big chances in their previous 5 GWs of any team and Everton (Vardy’s game), had conceded the second least amount of big chances of any team in that time period.

Of course, Vardy scores and Mané does nothing.

This week, I couldn’t not go with Vardy given the sheer volume of people that were going to captain him and logically, it made the most sense anyway without looking at the volume of people that would be captaining him. Home to Watford was a cracking fixture and he’s been on fire.

Of course, Mané hits a 15 pointer and Vardy scores 5pts…

Before that, I went for Sterling, who scored in the 93rd minute, only for it to be ruled out by a mm.

So, right now, my captain choices feel tainted, so perhaps it’s best you don’t listen to me right now, but use the above information to come to your own decision, because evidently, the FPL gods clearly despise me right now!

Having said that, I’ll give you my 2 cents… feel free to ignore.

Sadio Mané was channeling his inner Kevin De Bruyne against Everton last night, as he tore them to shreds. His pass with his left foot for Origi to open the scoring was a thing of beauty. He then went on to notch another assist, as well as adding a very well-taken goal of his own.

Against what seems to be a hapless Bournemouth right now, Mané looks tempting again, but the worry is a potential rest, having seen Klopp rest both Firmino and Salah last night.

Personally, I think Mané plays.

Both Mané and Salah are naturally fit enough to play most games, and we’ve seen that over the last few years. They rarely get rested through tough periods. The Salah rest for me, was down to his injury. Firmino’s role sees him expand the most energy of the 3 and I’d add, he’s likely not as fit as the other two, so that’s why he was rested in my opinion.

Salah will now be a tempting option having been fully rested against Everton however, he doesn’t seem to be at 100%. Maybe that rest will have helped? But we can’t know for sure just yet.

Vardy added another goal to his belt, making it 7 returns in a row. Villa up next and given this run of form, there’s no reason he can’t add another one in this game, so he’ll likely be well backed.

The interesting choices, like last week, are Alli and Son in my opinion.

At home to Burnley, it’s a fairly decent fixture and both these two, especially Alli, have been very good since Mourinho took over. Both represent solid differential options.

However, looking at all of the above, Bournemouth seem to be in trouble right now. They are really struggling to be creative and have 1 Premier League win in their last 9 games.

Embed from Getty Images

 

So with that in mind, and coming off the back of a fantastic 5-2 derby win, I think Mané or Salah are the best choices for this GW for whatever that’s worth.

Go on then, smite me FPL gods…

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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