FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 20

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 20 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screenshot 2019-12-27 at 23.45.36.png

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Jamie Vardy – 30.9% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 31 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 3 chances created (1 big chance)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Mohamed Salah – 30.5% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 44 penalty area touches
  • 21 total goal attempts.
  • 18 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Sadio Mané – 22.9% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 39 penalty area touches.
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 11 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 4 assists.

Harry Kane – 15.6% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 21 penalty area touches.
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (1 big chance)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Kevin De Bruyne

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 24 penalty area touches.
  • 22 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 23 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Differential captain suggestion

Screen Shot 2019-12-27 at 15.21.12.png

Danny Ings – One English forward has been taking the limelight this season, in the form of Foxes striker Jamie Vardy, but another English forward who has been extremely consistent over the last 12 GWs is Danny Ings. Since being thrown into the starting XI in GW7, Ings has scored 10 goals. The only 2 games he hasn’t returned in over this period, was the anomaly 9-0 defeat to Leicester and the away 2-1 defeat to Man City.

Having been rested away to Chelsea, where Saints came out convincing 2-0 victors, Ings will be fresh for their home match against Crystal Palace and he’ll be keen to continue his brilliant form. In a GW strife with uncertainty over starters, Ings will almost certainly be a starter having been rested and represents a safe, but exciting differential captain.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-12-27 at 14.44.40.png

Jamie Vardy comprehensively wins the metric again

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Mohamed Salah has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Liverpool have created the most amount of big chances (16) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Vardy’s opponents, West Ham, have conceded the most big chances (10) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Jamie Vardy is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Jamie Vardy has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Jamie Vardy also has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 9 goals from his 22 attempts away from the King Power stadium.
  • Reliability % – Jamie Vardy has the highest reliability % having returned in 13 of his 19 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Jamie Vardy is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 6 double-figure hauls in his 19 games.

My View 

(my personal take on things NOT to be taken as fact)

So, Leicester were expertly upstaged by Liverpool last night, brought crashing down to earth by the well-oiled machine that is Jurgen Klopp’s side, who just seem to know how to win each game they take on.

It doesn’t particularly change Leicester and Vardy’s credentials in my eyes and he still feels like the best captain on paper this week when you take in opposition however, given his age (33) and the fact that Brendan commented in a pre-match press conference stating that he “simply cannot play every game” earlier this year, it’s difficult to commit to Vardy this week.

Especially given that Salah was taken off early last night, the natural all round fitness of Mané and the fact that Kane appears to be coming into form and typically does well this time of year and never usually gets rested.

I’m unsure if Vardy is going to get his rest now, but with the schedule set up how it is, now seems to be the most likely time for him to have a rest and it just feels somewhat risky to go with him in my eyes.

Screen Shot 2019-12-27 at 16.18.12.png

With that in mind, I think Salah or Kane are the best choices this week. We can be almost certain that both will start, and both are in good form and tend to do well this time of year.

Kane is up against a typically poor defence, although they have been decent in defence recently, and Salah, with the exception of last night, is starting shift through the gears on his way back to 100%, with the bonus of his rest and Liverpool on cloud nine with the recent Club World Championship win fresh in their minds.

If you aren’t too sure this week and fancy a differential, Danny Ings would be my recommendation as mentioned above and this GW, it could be a good one for a differential captain, as I imagine the spread of captains will be similar to last GW, where it was quite large.

I hope you all had a brilliant Christmas with your friends and family, and I wish you the best of luck for this GW.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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