FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 21

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 21 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2019-12-31 at 16.03.57

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Jamie Vardy – 58.5% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 31 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (1 big chance)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Mohamed Salah – 15% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 50 penalty area touches
  • 20 total goal attempts.
  • 17 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 9 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

KDB – 13.3% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 28 penalty area touches.
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 9 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 16 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 4 assists.

Sadio Mané – 13.2% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 40 penalty area touches.
  • 12 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 10 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 4 assists.

Harry Kane

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 27 penalty area touches.
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 11 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 chances created (1 big chance)
  • 2 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Differential captain suggestion

Screen Shot 2019-12-31 at 14.37.13.png

Marcus Rashford/Anthony Martial – Man United, in their current form, are a team that typically struggle to break teams down, unless they’re playing on the counter attack. With the pace, intelligence and energy of Dan James, Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial, United’s counter attacks have been lethal this season as we’ve seen against Chelsea (4-0) and Man City (2-1).

Arsenal is typically a ground United do well at, and given Arsenal’s current instability and with both Rashford and Martial being in good form, I think both of these guys are a good bet for a differential captain. Arsenal played a great game against Chelsea for a long period of the game, but late on, they demonstrated their defensive immaturity once again and they capitulated to a 2-1 defeat from a winning position. I expect United to take advantage of these defensive frailties.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2019-12-31 at 14.30.29.png

Jamie Vardy!

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Kevin De Bruyne has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Liverpool have created the most amount of big chances (13) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Vardy’s opponents, Newcastle, have conceded the most big chances (11) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – According to the bookies, Jamie Vardy is the most likely to score.
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Jamie Vardy has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Jamie Vardy also has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 9 goals from his 22 attempts away from the King Power stadium.
  • Reliability % – Jamie Vardy has the highest reliability % having returned in 13 of his 19 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Jamie Vardy is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 6 double-figure hauls in his 19 games.

My View 

(my personal take on things NOT to be taken as fact)

Even Harry Kane (35) has more points in the last 5 GWs than Jamie Vardy, and that’s NOT including his rest last GW, so form wise, there are better options, but Vardy wins the metric again because his fixture is the best on paper, the bookies have him as the most likely to score and the fact he’s the joint most explosive and reliable asset of the candidates.

This one really is a case of keeping it simple though. The stats agree, and with him having a rest (although I’m not sure how much resting he was doing being on baby duty) in combination with all the other candidates playing, he’s probably the most nailed on of the candidates.

Having said that, I must admit, De Bruyne’s consistency and tendency to hit double-figure hauls is tempting in a home game to Everton.

What puts me off a little, is the fact that Everton have always done reasonably well against City at the Etihad, with 3 of their last 5 games there ending in a draw, two 1-1’s and one 0-0.

Screen Shot 2019-12-31 at 16.46.06.png

Harry Kane for me is also a reasonable consideration this GW. He has a great record against the Saints having scored 7 goals against them in their last 5 meetings, but this feels like a low-ceiling pick, as the Saints can be quite organised and Spurs have only managed a goal on each of their last 2 occasions playing at St Mary’s.

Mané and Salah both also feel like low ceiling picks for their game against Sheffield United. Away to the Blades, Mané did get a couple of very good opportunities and Salah also got a one on one however, at Anfield, I expect Wilder’s team to be more defensive and we all know how organised they can be.

It’s Vardy all the way for me this week however. I’m keeping it simple and simple says captain Jamie Vardy.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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