FPL Captain Metric: Gameweek 23

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for Gameweek 23 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric – who will you choose this Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our poll

Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 15.32.39.png

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

KDB – 46.2% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 22 penalty area touches.
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 5 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 14 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 5 assists.

Jamie Vardy – 27.8% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 31 penalty area touches
  • 14 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 5 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Mohamed Salah – 15.2% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 52 penalty area touches
  • 19 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 10 chances created (3 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Sadio Mané – 10.8% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 41 penalty area touches.
  • 13 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 6 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 5 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 2 assists.

Sergio Agüero

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured not included):

  • 21 penalty area touches.
  • 11 total goal attempts.
  • 8 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 4 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 4 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Differential captain suggestion

Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 15.45.34.png

Tammy Abraham – Whilst Tammy Abraham is a well-owned asset, he generally isn’t that well backed for the captaincy currently, with his form being off. But this week looks a good week for Tammy. Chelsea are a much higher scoring prospect on their travels, with 25 goals scored away from home in their 11 games in comparison to just 14 goals at home.

In addition to above’s higher scoring prospects in general for Chelsea, Tammy is a much better FPL prospect away from home, scoring 8 and assisting 3 of his 13 goals and 4 assist total. He faces a Newcastle side who are a little less solid than usual, conceding 10 goals and 15 big chances in their last 5 games – only Villa have a worse defensive record during this time. So if you’re looking for a solid differential captain, Tammy looks a great prospect for GW23.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 15.26.51

The winner of the metric is Jamie Vardy.

Important Note: 

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Mohamed Salah have scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Team form – Liverpool have created the most amount of big chances (17) of any of the candidates’ teams.
  • Fixture difficulty – Jamie Vardy’s opponents, Burnley, have conceded the most big chances (10) of the other candidates’ opposition.
  • Likelihood of scoring – Sergio Agüero is the most likely to score according to the bookies (William Hill).
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Sadio Mané has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Home/Away Goal Conversion – Jamie Vardy has the highest goal conversion rate after scoring 9 goals from his 22 attempts away from the King Power stadium.
  • Reliability % – Jamie Vardy has the highest reliability % having returned in 14 of his 20 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Jamie Vardy is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 6 double-figure hauls in his 20 games.

My View 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

GW23 is a slightly tougher week for the captaincy admittedly.

Liverpool are up against Man Utd at Anfield and over the last 5 games at Anfield, United have been relatively difficult to put away. Liverpool have won 2-0 and 3-1, with 2 0-0 draws and a United 1-0 win.

Mourinho is good at setting up his teams to be difficult to beat, and the last 3 games (3-1, and the two 0-0s) were when Mourinho was in charge.

I’m not so sure Ole has the same tactical ability to set his team up to avoid losing comfortably however, as we’ve seen against Man City, he can set this United team up well for the counter and that’s really his only option, as United aren’t good enough to go toe to toe with them.

So I can see United getting one, but if Liverpool bring their A game, I can see at least 2 goals going in with one of Mané or Salah on the scoresheet. I don’t see this game as a high ceiling for the pair though.

Vardy is away to Burnley where, they are fairly solid and on top of that, I feel as though Leicester are in a little slump right now, with the 1-1 draw at home to a Villa side currently struggling to defend well and then the 2-1 defeat to Southampton where they could have conceded 4/5 goals quite easily.

Having said that, Vardy still returned in that game and had a goal disallowed, so if Leicester do score, we know it’s likely going to be him that’s part of it, so he still represents a good option.

For me, I think Man City are the ones I’d look to for the captaincy. They’re really starting to pick up again and have Agüero back firing on all cylinders which can only mean bad news for Hodgson’s men.

We know Palace can be difficult to break down and obviously, the 3-2 win last year and Townsend’s wonder goal is still fresh in the memory however, before that, the scores have been; 5-0, 5-0, 4-0 and 5-1 at the Etihad.

Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 16.29.33.png

I think it’s gotta be the reliable Kevin De Bruyne, or Sergio Agüero if you own him, for the captaincy this week and I agree with the poll.

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

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