FPL Captain Metric Double Gameweek 24: Triple Captain Time?

We explore the best options for the Fantasy Premier League captain for double Gameweek 24 and reveal the results of our captain poll and our new captain metric, as well as discussing the Triple Captain chip – who will you choose for the double Gameweek?

BEFORE WE BEGIN: If you haven’t already seen, we released an article last year introducing the new ‘FPL Captain Metric’, which explains the concept fully and it can be viewed here >> https://fplconnect.blog/2018/08/07/the-captain-metric-explained-2/

Results of our captain poll and who’s activating their Triple Captain

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Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 18.23.20

The following underlying statistics are taken from FantasyFootballScout.co.uk. If you want to gain access to these stats yourself, register to become a member here >> https://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Mohamed Salah – 40.1% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs:

  • 48 penalty area touches.
  • 16 total goal attempts.
  • 13 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 13 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 4 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Sadio Mané – 33% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 44 penalty area touches
  • 15 total goal attempts.
  • 15 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 7 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 6 big chances.
  • 2 goals.
  • 1 assist.

Trent Alexander-Arnold – 19.4% of the votes 

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 10 penalty area touches
  • 6 total goal attempts.
  • 2 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 10 chances created (4 big chances)
  • 0 big chances.
  • 1 goal.
  • 4 assists.
  • 5 clean sheets

Bobby Firmino – 7.5% of the votes

Underlying attacking stats the last 5 GWs (games where he was out injured/rested not included):

  • 34 penalty area touches.
  • 18 total goal attempts.
  • 16 goal attempts inside the box.
  • 9 chances created (0 big chances)
  • 3 big chances.
  • 3 goals.
  • 0 assists.

Captain Metric

Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 16.44.00

The winner of the metric is Sadio Mané.

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Just to explain some of the above changes for the double gameweek…

As it is a double GW, I’ve changed some of the relevant stats above to reflect the fact we’re realistically only looking at Liverpool assets and Trent Alexander-Arnold is a possibility too, so clean sheet chances needs to be taken into account.

So, I have removed home and away conversion for this one, as I didn’t feel it was relevant this week with TAA being involved, but I have kept “Anytime scorer odds” as I can balance it up with “Clean sheet odds” and just apply full metric points to TAA, as if they do keep a clean sheet, he’ll pick up the most points, then the midfield options and then the forward option, so I’ve applied metric points in this fashion.

Additionally, I have only applied the odds for the Wolves game, as when comparing the assets from Liverpool against each other, the difference between them all would largely be similar in each game and the metric points would be applied the same for both.

Lastly, fixture difficulty is displayed to show how many big chances Wolves (1st number) and West Ham (2nd number) have conceded in the last 5 PL games.

TheeGefloos from Sub-Reddit Fantasy PL, has contributed to the development of the new ‘rank order’ system where players are awarded points on the metric in an order from the best score, to the worst score at the bottom.

Example:

If player A and player B have the same points and both have the highest/best score for that particular stat, then they are awarded the highest amount of points (in this context, 4), but they then count for 2 ranks, as there is two players, which means that player C is awarded the 3rd rank and is thus awarded 2 points, rather than 3.

His profile on Reddit is here >> https://www.reddit.com/user/TheeGefloos

(Reliability %), basically gives us the percentage of games the player has provided a return (goal or assist) in out of the games he was available for selection (not injured) – so this includes games where the player has scored 0 because of being on the bench/rested, but not those where the player has scored 0 because he was injured or unavailable for some other reason, like personal circumstances for example. This can give us an idea of how likely the player is to return and how reliable he has been.

(Explosivity %), as the name suggests, gives us the percentage of games the player has ‘exploded in’, or in more accurate terms, has provided a double-figure return. In the same way as before, it can give us an idea of how likely a player is to return a double-figure haul and a clear view of how good he’s been at providing double-figure hauls in the past.

Breakdown of the metric:

  • Player form – Alexander-Arnold has scored the most points of any of the candidates.
  • Likelihood of scoring – Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané are both tied for being the most likely to score according to the bookies (William Hill).
  • Expected goals/assists (xGI) – Sadio Mané has the highest expected goal involvement of all the candidates over the last 5 Gameweeks.
  • Reliability % – Mohamed Salah has the highest reliability % having returned in 12 of his 20 games so far this year.
  • Explosivity % – Sadio Mané is the most explosive of the candidates having hit 6 double-figure hauls in his 22 games.

My View 

To Triple Captain or not to Triple Captain? 

(my personal take NOT to be taken as fact)

When I first saw the double fixture, Wolves away and West Ham away, I can’t say I looked at that and thought immediately, “that’s Triple Captain sorted this year”.

Especially now that West Ham have Moyes at the helm, who has seemingly steadied the defensive ship somewhat, who were often lost at sea at times under Pellegrini.

However, the problem is, if they do get another double GW, it is likely to be in GW37 (https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js“>according to double GW and blank GW master Ben Crellin) and they are almost certain to have the league completely wrapped up by then, so how likely is it that Salah and Mané play both games in the double at that point? Well I wouldn’t be confident, especially if they are in the latter stages of the Champions League as well as the FA Cup which again, is quite likely given how well they’re playing right now.

Beyond that, who else do we look to for the Triple Captain?

Well Man City are the other logical ones given they’re the highest goalscorers this year, but the problem, as we all know too well, is bloody Pep Guardiola and his roulette wheel of rotation!

Can we be certain that Sterling or Agüero or even Mahrez play both fixtures in a double? One thing is for certain, you can never trust Pep. KDB is the only potential exception. Outside of that, you’d be looking at someone like Aubameyang, Abraham or perhaps Son Heung-Min and how confident would you be?

Is this a great time for the Triple Captain? I’m not sure, as I think both games could be tight, but is it likely we get a better opportunity? Personally, I don’t think so given the info we have currently.

Beyond TC considerations, who’s actually the best option? 

According to the metric, Sadio is still the boss. He’s in better form, is having more big chances and more shots inside the box than Salah over the last 5 games. His overall conversion rate (20.8%) is better than Salah’s (15.7%) however, Salah is now becoming a bit more reliable than Sadio.

Salah has 7 blanks this year in his 20 games whereas Mané has 9 in his 22 games which works out Salah just slightly being the more reliable player. Mané is just slightly more explosive than Salah though, with one more double-figure haul than him.

Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 17.40.17

Given Firmino’s low reliability this season and low double-figure likelihood, I would be reluctant to take a gamble on him. The smart gamble is Alexander-Arnold if you want to attack rank and take a reasonably high risk.

He’s more explosive than Firmino and is nearly as reliable as Salah and Mané for returns, and given Liverpool’s more solid nature this year in comparison to their all out attack approach last, TAA could be a great bet if you think he plays both.

It all comes down to where you’re ranked and your gut feeling.

I think the sensible option if you’re looking to protect rank, is to captain Sadio Mané and if you’re looking to attack your rank and try to climb, then Salah or TAA (in that order) is what I would advise.

Best of luck with whatever you choose – hope this was helpful – and let’s hope there’s no rotation and that Liverpool produce the goods for us all!

keep-calm-and-thanks-for-reading-7

 

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